Trust a Farmer any Day over a Expert!

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok Ill blow my own horn this time. Stats Canada on Canola is correct or darn
close to what we produced.
I said in Early July the Canadian Canola
crop has problems but the experts said I
was a stupid farmer. Well trust a farmer
f&$k the Expert. Their like profs at the
UofS good teachers but in reality couldn't make it.
Some times I am out but for the most
part talking to farmers and taking some
trips around one can get really close
and oh yea a Walmart calculator.
We farmers grow the crop so DAh should
know what we have in the field.
Out once in last 5 but even that year I wasn't far out.
Ah its a great day!
Now lets have some fun!
THE USA is full of Shit and Australia
has problems plus its a long time till
SA grows a crop a long time!

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry Larry you also was right on the
number. The trade wanted a huge crop with
the huge acreage and then buy it form us
for 10 to 12. Shit happens boys we grew it
mother nature took it now deal with it.

[HappyFarmer]

Oh the preacher has spoken!!!!
You pay 32 k for your expert that you are smarter than.
Nice.

[bucket]

Larry is closer to the farm community than any other guy in the industry.

I wouldn't lump him in with others, he is a breed all in his own.

[SASKFARMER3]

Happy are you just not that swift. Sales man was
out are you Fricking nuts to think I would spend
that much for advise.

[SASKFARMER3]

Larry is way closer to the farm level, way closer.

[mbratrud]

Happy I think I read that SF3 does not subscribe to an Expert for $32000.

Having been on the consulting side and Farmer side, all I can say is putting all your eggs in one Basket is not a good Idea especially if you have to pay $32000 for the basket.

However there are several sources out there that are significantly less. I subscribe to 3 - 4 good sources and draw my own conclusions after taking in their opinions. But it all takes time there are many producers that benefit greatly from advisors.

Some outfits (advisors) have outpriced the value they offer.

As for listening to Farmers, <grin> Some farmers that are definalty on their game others not so much LOL.

[charliep]

So you are saying as a grain company you would not have forward booked any new crop export business based on a crop failure? A major part of a grain companies success is being able to estimate what you have available for sales in your region, the likely customer base that will buy that crop and being able to manage the logistics side that puts this package together that maintains good margins and makes full utilization of their facilities (contributes to elevator turn over/minimizes storage). From a former life, I spent a good deal of time trying to help make this happen.

Crushers will be even more interesting. They will have made oil and meal sales. They also have had the ability to hedge some pretty good board crush margins. Their challenge will be to keep canola moving up the drive way.

Off your topic of who is better at calling production estimates. Perhaps noting there is more to this equation than simply how much was produced.

[bucket]

Well charliep, earlier this year I think you were talking that disappearance for canola would run a little over 14mmt. The current production estimates puts that at a 400000 tonne shortfall.

Now add in a new canola crushing plant.

[charliep]

So you believe that my 14 MMT was an exact number and had no leaway for changes in production? My way of thinking is that numbers are a forecast on a given day based on the information available. A snap shot. The numbers change as things change. To highlight what mbratrud said, the level of sales and movement over the next 3 months will be a key information.

[charliep]

The new crushing plant is 2014 opening. In listening to you, the investment Cargill is making is a bad one that will likely be unprofitable and you would suggest they put their elsewhere? Is this investment a good one or a bad for Alberta and farmers here?

[bucket]

Nope didn't say that. I said add in a new crushing plant.

That means even more demand for our canola. A good thing. But it also means more demand and requires more production.

[bucket]

charliep

Do you think they are building it in alberta to crush soybeans?

[charliep]

No idea. How close are they to 100 to 110 day soybeans that could be grown in the black soil zones?

[agstar77]

Soybean seed dealers have booked all the local seed supplies. Acreage will explode next year. You will be hard pressed to find yellow next year in the RR Valley or most of southern Mb. We will see how long it takes for crushers to change.