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Wheat Yield Outlook in France, Germany, United Kingdom
France is the leading wheat nation in Europe producing around 28% of the European Union harvest. Early yields have been positive with 14% of the crop in the bin, but protein levels are down, Nogger’s Blog reports. Harvesting typically begins in June, but this season was delayed due to prolonged spring cold. Wheat yields are favored by cooler temperatures; however, the delayed harvest carries a risk for a reduced wheat quality, especially from heavy rain. Northern France recently was hit with 1.5 - 2 inches of rainfall in strong thunderstorms.
Wheat in Germany is beginning to show stress from prolonged hot, dry weather in July. Temperatures have been as hot as 38 C (100 F) causing wheat to ripen prematurely. The July heat wave is not the only adverse weather. Widespread flooding developed in May in southern Germany, jeopardizing wheat quality. The Czech Republic was also flooded. Despite weather hazards Toepfer, the international grain buyer, predicts Germany wheat production may reach 24.24 million metric tons, a 6.4% increase on last season. The USDA predicts a smaller German wheat harvest, 23.7 million metric tons, but significantly better than the 22.41 MMT gathered last year.
United Kingdom wheat production is expected to be disappointing for the second year in a row. A prolonged stretch of dryness April-June tested wheat on the lighter soils and those with a shallow root system Agrimoney reports. Drought steadily worsened spring into summer with only 60-80% of normal rainfall April-June. While weather conditions have improved in July, turning warmer and wetter, the yield outlook is still not too promising. Market forecasts are for 11.5-12 million metric tons of wheat, worse even than last year's disappointing harvest, 13.26 million metric tons. Typically wheat production exceeds 15 million metric tons. The wheat area-for-harvest may be down 20%. Relentless rains last fall during the planting period prevented growers from getting all the intended wheat sown.
Where is the evidence for a bumper EU harvest, the best in 5 years? Beside France and Germany, other wheat countries are also expecting a favorable crop, much better than last season.
Poland the number 4 top wheat country, after United Kingdom is expecting a 7% increase in wheat production. Spain also is predicting a bumper harvest nearly 2 MMT higher than 2012, as winter rains this year exceptionally good. Wheat production in Romania and Hungary is expected to greatly exceed the 2012 harvest, increasing nearly 25%, as the year-ago crop was particularly poor from prolonged drought and heat stress. Denmark would also recover from unusually bad production last year, the 2013 harvest expected to expand 20%.
This may be the breakout year producers were hoping for. Yet with a delayed harvest, summer weather needs to be favorable to preserve wheat quality and yields.
Wheat Yield Outlook in France, Germany, United Kingdom
France is the leading wheat nation in Europe producing around 28% of the European Union harvest. Early yields have been positive with 14% of the crop in the bin, but protein levels are down, Nogger’s Blog reports. Harvesting typically begins in June, but this season was delayed due to prolonged spring cold. Wheat yields are favored by cooler temperatures; however, the delayed harvest carries a risk for a reduced wheat quality, especially from heavy rain. Northern France recently was hit with 1.5 - 2 inches of rainfall in strong thunderstorms.
Wheat in Germany is beginning to show stress from prolonged hot, dry weather in July. Temperatures have been as hot as 38 C (100 F) causing wheat to ripen prematurely. The July heat wave is not the only adverse weather. Widespread flooding developed in May in southern Germany, jeopardizing wheat quality. The Czech Republic was also flooded. Despite weather hazards Toepfer, the international grain buyer, predicts Germany wheat production may reach 24.24 million metric tons, a 6.4% increase on last season. The USDA predicts a smaller German wheat harvest, 23.7 million metric tons, but significantly better than the 22.41 MMT gathered last year.
United Kingdom wheat production is expected to be disappointing for the second year in a row. A prolonged stretch of dryness April-June tested wheat on the lighter soils and those with a shallow root system Agrimoney reports. Drought steadily worsened spring into summer with only 60-80% of normal rainfall April-June. While weather conditions have improved in July, turning warmer and wetter, the yield outlook is still not too promising. Market forecasts are for 11.5-12 million metric tons of wheat, worse even than last year's disappointing harvest, 13.26 million metric tons. Typically wheat production exceeds 15 million metric tons. The wheat area-for-harvest may be down 20%. Relentless rains last fall during the planting period prevented growers from getting all the intended wheat sown.
Where is the evidence for a bumper EU harvest, the best in 5 years? Beside France and Germany, other wheat countries are also expecting a favorable crop, much better than last season.
Poland the number 4 top wheat country, after United Kingdom is expecting a 7% increase in wheat production. Spain also is predicting a bumper harvest nearly 2 MMT higher than 2012, as winter rains this year exceptionally good. Wheat production in Romania and Hungary is expected to greatly exceed the 2012 harvest, increasing nearly 25%, as the year-ago crop was particularly poor from prolonged drought and heat stress. Denmark would also recover from unusually bad production last year, the 2013 harvest expected to expand 20%.
This may be the breakout year producers were hoping for. Yet with a delayed harvest, summer weather needs to be favorable to preserve wheat quality and yields.