To find an illustration of the temperature-related question marks regarding the 2013 U.S. soybean crop, you may want to consider the temperature at Battle Creek, Iowa, Sunday morning, July 28. This community, in Ida County in western Iowa, reported a low of 39 degrees Fahrenheit.
According to weather records updated by Iowa state climatologist Harry Hillaker, that temperature was the lowest in Iowa in almost 30 years -- since July 7, 1984. Pod setting, the true start of the fall harvest, is only 14% -- one-third the average 43%.
Iowa's crop progress combined with the coldest July temperature in a generation puts the soybean development subject into focus as we consider the August weather forecast. As with corn, much of the Eastern Corn Belt is farther along with the progress of crops than is the Western Corn Belt. The question now is whether the late-starting Western Corn Belt soybean crop will be able to, if not fully produce, at least come close before the first occurrence of freezing weather.
Weather and climate experts are fully aware of these issues. Nebraska state climatologist Al Dutcher, for instance, is concerned about a lack of growing degree days for crop progress in the northern section of the Corn Belt.
"There is no net gain on catching up," when it comes to a lag in growing degree days, Dutcher said. "We have seen temperatures in the past 60 days which are within plus or minus one degree (F)," Dutcher said. He added we picked up about two growing degree days when temperatures were one degree above normal, and lost two growing degree days when temperatures were one degree below normal.
That lag in development time may dog soybeans for the remainder of the season. Some fields were planted so late that even a normal first freeze of the autumn season may be too early this year.
"If the trend towards cool weather continues into August, it could begin to raise concerns about crop development and the possibility of the first freeze in the fall occurring prior to crop maturity in some areas of the Midwest and Northern Plains," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino.
But, so far, the soybean market has chosen to focus on the cool weather pattern's benign presence as crops go into their reproductive stages. "November soybeans have shown the bearish effects with new recent lows, signs that the market may have largely given up on worries of intense heat wilting the late-planted crops," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
The soybean market, of course, also has the backdrop of a bountiful 2012-13 season in South America, which brought huge crops to Brazil and Argentina. Also, Brazil may have more soybeans on the way for the 2014 harvest. Farm consultancy AgRural projects an overall 6% increase in Brazil soybean acreage in the upcoming 2013-14 season, to almost 73 million acres. Using yield data from the past 10 years, that acreage amount projects to a 9% increase in production over this year, to 89.1 mmt, or 3.27 billion bushels.
Just watching ours and the other crops in our area plus the ones I have seen at Weyburn and Watrous and Avonlee, Were not going to make it this year. We need till the 15th of Sept with no frost. Slow growth and no heat are hurting our chances for 2013. ND fields I witnessed in June were seeded later than us.
Maybe don't rush to sell Canola Because this is a big BS year with high yields. Canada has a average crop from what I have seen. Assinaboia Davidson, South Swift Have nice stands. Rest are normal to below. So if the USA freezes look out. Also if we freeze a lot is still blooming in Saskatchewan.
According to weather records updated by Iowa state climatologist Harry Hillaker, that temperature was the lowest in Iowa in almost 30 years -- since July 7, 1984. Pod setting, the true start of the fall harvest, is only 14% -- one-third the average 43%.
Iowa's crop progress combined with the coldest July temperature in a generation puts the soybean development subject into focus as we consider the August weather forecast. As with corn, much of the Eastern Corn Belt is farther along with the progress of crops than is the Western Corn Belt. The question now is whether the late-starting Western Corn Belt soybean crop will be able to, if not fully produce, at least come close before the first occurrence of freezing weather.
Weather and climate experts are fully aware of these issues. Nebraska state climatologist Al Dutcher, for instance, is concerned about a lack of growing degree days for crop progress in the northern section of the Corn Belt.
"There is no net gain on catching up," when it comes to a lag in growing degree days, Dutcher said. "We have seen temperatures in the past 60 days which are within plus or minus one degree (F)," Dutcher said. He added we picked up about two growing degree days when temperatures were one degree above normal, and lost two growing degree days when temperatures were one degree below normal.
That lag in development time may dog soybeans for the remainder of the season. Some fields were planted so late that even a normal first freeze of the autumn season may be too early this year.
"If the trend towards cool weather continues into August, it could begin to raise concerns about crop development and the possibility of the first freeze in the fall occurring prior to crop maturity in some areas of the Midwest and Northern Plains," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino.
But, so far, the soybean market has chosen to focus on the cool weather pattern's benign presence as crops go into their reproductive stages. "November soybeans have shown the bearish effects with new recent lows, signs that the market may have largely given up on worries of intense heat wilting the late-planted crops," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
The soybean market, of course, also has the backdrop of a bountiful 2012-13 season in South America, which brought huge crops to Brazil and Argentina. Also, Brazil may have more soybeans on the way for the 2014 harvest. Farm consultancy AgRural projects an overall 6% increase in Brazil soybean acreage in the upcoming 2013-14 season, to almost 73 million acres. Using yield data from the past 10 years, that acreage amount projects to a 9% increase in production over this year, to 89.1 mmt, or 3.27 billion bushels.
Just watching ours and the other crops in our area plus the ones I have seen at Weyburn and Watrous and Avonlee, Were not going to make it this year. We need till the 15th of Sept with no frost. Slow growth and no heat are hurting our chances for 2013. ND fields I witnessed in June were seeded later than us.
Maybe don't rush to sell Canola Because this is a big BS year with high yields. Canada has a average crop from what I have seen. Assinaboia Davidson, South Swift Have nice stands. Rest are normal to below. So if the USA freezes look out. Also if we freeze a lot is still blooming in Saskatchewan.