Canola Marketing Idea

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

My banker said south of Calgary in some areas is starting to burn, I don't know how true this is...

Foolish me bought 300t of Nov 02 350 puts last week but I want to lock up the higher value than the Crop Insurance 320/t and or have a reasonable price on the few tonnes we will produce.

Any Idea what the increased adjusted mid-summer crop insurance values might end up at?

[charliep]

The mid summer prices will be announced mid August. We have a month of weather ahead of us both sides of the border so I will not second guess the results. For management purposes, you may want to look at current new crop prices and this will likely give an indication of direction (magnitude is story to be told).

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I see Nov. 02 Canola traded today over 400/t, what a difference a couple of weeks can make!!!

[charliep]

I agree Tom. I still like the idea (for those that are somewhat comfortable on the yield side) of at some point buying some puts to protect prices on this rally. Selling calls (keeping in mind your experience) is also a good strategy for a disciplined hedger (if I see $10/t - $440 to $450/t Nov futures, I will sell).

An interesting discussion for this winter will be to review marketing strategies and use the lessons learned to improve techniques.

[charliep]

Just thought I would put a note in to keep this thread alive. Interesting times with US markets on fire and the looney taking adive.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

So far this has not been the year to presell anything...

One news letter I recieve from a US think tank believes we are at the 1972-73 historic stage of breakout higher prices for commodities...

They have been saying this since last fall, if the funds and general public jump on this band wagon, this could be quite a ride...

[TOM4CWB]

Tom have you any idea or have you kept a chart on the advantages vs disadvantages of spring preselling has been over the past few years on canola.

If anyone has any record please feel free to enlighten us all on the advantages vs disadvantages.

[TOM4CWB]

Charliep can you give me your best bet on the price of wheat in the next few months. Does it appear to be headed for a historical high.

Anybody else who's got .02 cents worth of wisom please share your knowledge with us.

My wheat crop is looking like 20 bushel or worse, normally 50 bus. or better. Lots of wheat and barley being cut for feed or has had the cows turned into it for pasture. This is Camrose and any direction you want to go from here.

[TOM4CWB]

Kernel,

When I took marketing courses a few years back, the week of May 10th was historically the yearly high in the market over the previous 25 years or so... Dan Hiller and Ken Stickland did the calculations...

The biggest issue was income stability, the cash pricers had higher highs, but lower lows as well, with not a big difference in total income if they both had a good marketing plan...

My two bits on wheat is that there really is no valid way to know what will happen, unless you know the weather...

So much for the CWB's multi-million dollar weather forcasting system,,, it sure did us a lot of good this year...

Wheat stocks are low, but the fall out in the stock market is causing commodities to rally more than they might otherwise...


Kernel, what is your estimate of Canola and non-durum wheat?

Canola, 3.2mmt??

Non-durum wheat for export 8mmt??

[rodbradshaw]

Does anyone have a handle if the big funds are pulling up stakes in the Stock market and heading for the commodities? I know a couple of years ago they got into the corn market and drove it contrary to what the fundamentals indicated. The market eventually returned to where it should have been but they left a lot of carcassses in their wake.