How bad is it.

[rain]

My favourite saying is "The crop is never as bad or good as everyone thinks."

I just heard today that feed wheat has traded as high a $180.00 ($4.90)delivered Edmonton. I talked to one wheat buyer up there today who now feels good about the $175.00 he paid last week.

My feelings have been that if wheat stays in the $170 range at harvest the CWB will not be seeing much wheat on the A series contract.

Things are getting crazy enough that I am wondering if $4.00 barley is just around the corner? Interesting that July Western barley closed at $3.97 today.

Fear panic or greed does anyone know what part of the marketing matrix where in right now?

[charliep]

In my 25 years in the business, this is the worst I have seen in terms of uncertainty. None of the prices you mentioned are surprising. I have heard a $4/bu feed barley price up here (local hog operation to a neighbor) which is probably more of a I need feed barley right now bid.

Short term, the non board will draw milling wheat/malt barley. It is critical that the CWB reviews their June PRO estimates and provide an interim update as soon as possible. Other wise, high quality CWB grains will simply disappear.

Medium term, the situation which has me most concerned is the cattle industry. The issue will not be expensive energy or protein (feed grains can be moved around as seen this last year with corn - its simply a matter of price) but rather fibre shortages (hay, straw, silage). It will be a year of being innovative (moving cattle south, using feedlot capacity/silage to winter cows versus backgrounding/finishing calves, etc.).

Any thoughts on strategies for the coming year (both from the grain producer and user side)?

[rain]

I would have to say risk is to the end user right now. I have been warning guys that they are not likely to see much if any harvest pressure this year.

If end users can book new crop wheat and barley under the current cash values that locking up 25% - 50% of the coming years feed supplies will not be too aggressive.

[charliep]

What are the dynamics of bigger crops in Southern Alberta and the feedlot? This should mean less pressure that the last couple of years. Given the ugly loss situation of the past year and high grain prices, is anyone sure how many cattle they will feed this winter? What happens if feed prices remain cheap in the US and buyers from there come North to put a cap under our feeder prices?

[cowman]

We should all hope American buyers come up and put a cap under our feeder calf prices (actually just about all of the feeders coming to market right now are heading to the States). If feeders are allowed to free fall there won't be any cows left in Alberta. As it is I think we will see a sell down this year like never before...thus less calves next year. If the cow herd is reduced by one third in Sask. and Alberta where will the feedlots find those extra one million calves? Will they go down and compete against the American feeder who is feeding that sweetheart deal grain? Some lots will have to go. It's nobodys fault just this damned drought! I have no doubt barley at $4 is entirely possible; if even available! The "barley breadbasket" of Alberta is hurting big time. Now with some rain this could turn around but the 5 day forcast calls for some pretty hot weather which could just be the coup de grace for the barley crop.

[charliep]

cowman

Any ideas on alternatives for the cow calf operations that are getting desperate?

I have heard some thoughts of using feedlot capacity/silage there to winter cows. Other thoughts might to be for people that are lucky enough to have got at least some rain(including some of those in the south/peace river region) to consider haying versus grain harvest. The idea would be to buy cows (not a bad strategy this year if you have feed) or custom winter for others.

An interesting bit of math is to convert current hay and feed barley prices to cents/lb. Hay from reports is running in the range of 7 to 9 cents/lb. Feed barley at $3.50/bu converts to just over 7 cents. Feed wheat at $4.20/bu is just over 7 cents/lb.

Thoughts?

[sewen]

North Eastern Alberta the cows are starting to graze the cropland and its only the 10th of July. Hoping the rest of the crop stretches up enough to cut for feed but thats not a sure thing either.

Either way there isn't going to be much grain come out of this area! Also what the cows aren't eating the grasshoppers are.

[sewen]

So much for a consistant cropping area, crop insurance wrote off my canola today just when the Nov. future was hitting $8.50. Luckily I removed my GPO when rain failed to arrive by the 18 of June.

Most of canola has been written off from Hwy 2 in Alberta East through Camrose to the Sask border and likely beyond. Was in Vermilion Alta. last weekend and the crops were bad all the way.

Wheat and barley will be written off next week or 10 days. Sub soil mositure is gone and rain has been non-exsistant. 35 C here today and same for towmorrow. Cattle going to the Peace country on Monday for pasture.

Don't tell me its global warming, its just mother nature taking her normal course. We'll all survive it because we are survivors or we wouldn't have become farmers in the first place.

Have heard that some cows that have been turned into written off crop stands are dieing of nitrate poisoning which has been locked into some of the drought damaged plants. Just for everybodies info.

Looking forward to next year already.

P.S. anyone got some reasonable hay for sale. Alot of reseeding has taken place in the hopes of making a green feed crop. But rain is not in the forecast. I'am afraid there will be two crop failers this year.

And now the really bad news, My winter trip South has been cancelled.

[TOM4CWB]

Kernel,

Don't feel alone, Crop Insurance wrote off our canola today as well...

Wheat yeild at Edmonton east farm, between 0 on the hill tops and 25 in the low areas according to the adjuster...

Peas are toasting, a walk in the crop smells like it was just sprayed with reglone...

Most wheat has now flowered, the good news may be we beat the wheat midge to flowering, too little time between the last frost and flowering is my guess, only 1 month, if you don't count the July 2nd frost some got...

Now a big swathing/haying job with little forage by cutting the little canola there is and making feed out of it, this should make it rain most years, but I don't know about this year...

[cowman]

I don't really think there are any options for the cow/calf sector in the drought areas than liquidation. The better young cows should be bought up by anyone who has pasture and feed because if this thing ever turns around they could make a killing. The fact of the matter is there is just not going to be enough feed to keep the present cow herd. The prices recieved for feeders just are not high enough to pay for the feed to keep the cow. What it comes down to is this: Are your cows a hobby? If so then can you afford the hobby? If they are a business then you need to make a profit. If there is no profit why would you stay at it? To keep losing money is not good economics.

[rodbradshaw]

Walked fields today with local consultant. Barley is coming out the side of the boot and bottom leaves are gone and with the amount of leaf disease present you would think we have had a ton of rain. He mentioned that a lot of crops have flowered but are not filling. We have not hit the panic button yet but we will be keeping a close eye on them just in case we have to go to the salvage route. Some fields are definitely turning white in our area and you can see great uneveness due to soil conditions.
Was down near Lethbridge last week and was amazed at the great variation in crop conditions. Some of the irrigated crops looked poorer than some of our crops as they didn't stool and thus yields have to be reduced.

[TOM4CWB]

Thinking of you..

Delores M. of NE Edmonton (Bruderheim)is dead. last Friday...

450 cattle, what else was bothering him we don't know...

Did it infront of his son, who couldn't reach him in time to stop him...

There can be no question this is a bad situation...

Every day as things go down hill, it is depressing, to see things die...

Was looking at canola that had a decent stand, was hoping to salvage, only in low areas - 25% of field - are the plants poding.. other areas have plants with 1-5 pods per plant, all the other pods aborted... and when I open the good pods 30% of the seeds are damaged, watery brown...

Some fields have still only had less than one inch of rain since seeding...

Peas are 6 inches tall with a pod per plant except in the lower areas, dryer spots have no pods...

This is a time that faith in a better future is a must, denial of the reality of this problem is still everywhere, we have never seen anything like this in the past in this area... Spoiled I guess...

People just freeze up... don't know what to do... grasshoppers, lygus bugs on Canola...

[TOM4CWB]

They buried my neighbour this afternoon...

THE rain in the past week has helped fill the wheat and barley, still not enough to start second growth...

Late seeded canola is back in bloom, then cooked on Wed/Thur, now back cool, don't know but it looks pretty well finished...

I am amazed how an half an inch of rain can fill wheat, it is astounding...

Went to get 36ft straight cut header, will park some combines as now 1 combine can do more than 2 could before... have to make the best of this, as seed genetics are in as bad or worse shape than the cow herd... Common seed will have to be used in some cases as this disaster wrecked over 50% of seed production in Alberta I estimate...

With fusarium problems for importing seed into Alberta, recertification of seed to build stock seeds back up will likely be needed...

[rodbradshaw]

Had a preharvest done on barley today. It came in at about half of our long term yield. Barley is going to need to stay at over $4 just to break even on the rented land with rents tied to the price of barley.

[charliep]

With a 9 bln corn crop south of us and carryovers under 1 bln bu, the question is how close CBT corn comes to averaging $3/bu. Not much chance barley will drop below $4/bu this fall/winter. Spring is open to debate if we kill demand as much as I think might happen and a combination of increased acres/better yield prospects promises a big crop. Still lots of action ahead.