Green feed or grain?

[charliep]

sewen

I agree that we need to work cooperatively as an industry to get us through an ugly year. No one will profit from this one.

As a grain guy, I note the following.

Short term - High prices reflecting the feed shortage.

Medium term (1 to 2 years) - reduction of cow herd/reduced calf crop spring 2003 will significantly reduce barley consumption. We are likely to get into heifer retention mode and this will impact demand as well. There are other value added type markets for barley but not enough to replace the amount that would be consumed by these cattle. If barley acres increased next spring or the year after and mother nature cooperated to give good yields, western Canada would likely be in a situation of having to sell on the world market again.

Long term (3 plus years) - People that are at the end of their farming career will not get back into cattle. Those in the middle of their farming career will do a lot of head scratching and compare feeding cows to other off farm employment opportunities. It will take some time to build this cow herd again. At the same time, we have all the thunder clouds around the normal cattle cycle, increasing hog/chicken numbers, country of origin labeling enactment, health/food security issues, etc., etc. etc.

Within the realities of the current years drought situation, the more we can do to retain our cow herd the better. Others thoughts.

[TOM4CWB]

Sewen,

I couldn't agree more, for this is obviously not a bed of roses for anyone... and I do believe as was shown on CBC that farmers are infact doing exactly as you say they should...

Every field I cut for feed reduces my yield and makes our grain industry appear less reliable to the outside world. This in turn will increase world production of competitive grains, and hurt us when our production returns to normal, as our markets then have been fillied by someone else, and we will have to lower the price of our future grain production even more to get back the sales...

This is a complete disaster, and it will take years for the whole Ag economy to recover...

One can see why Sask. is shrinking and in the financial problems they are in, and why a historically a civilisation falls apart when this type of disaster happens...

[TOM4CWB]

Charliep I have been a little busy lately making my pickup reels on my headers into bat reels. Can you give me information on the crop in the USA and anyother spots in the world that are having a production problem at the present time.

[TOM4CWB]

Kernel,

I see Keho has duck foot fingers, what exactly did you do to your pickup fingers to fill them in???

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I can't believe how badly barley has done in the last couple of weeks...

I looked at a neighbours field, and the barley plants averaged 7" tall with an average of 7 kernels per head, but only 2/3rds of the plants have heads that have not aborted.

I can't see how this field could average over 8bu/ac, if a person can go this low... and we have lots of rocks 4-6"... this will be a lost cause for both green feed and grain...

Most barley crops have turned white in the past week, where the wheat is turning golden, and seems to be handling the stress, especially now it has cooled off.

The better peas crops are 8-10" with 3-4pods per plant with an average of 3 peas per pod...

If a person could pull the plants out by the roots, it wouldn't be too bad, but it is not easy getting the forage harvesters to work well with such a small amount of material. The big newer self propelled machines have problems shooting it into the trucks when it is so light...

[charliep]

Kernel

The CWB has a good weather summary.

http://www.cwb.ca/weather/wh/index.shtml

Areas I am watching include US corn/soybeans regions (impact of weather on yields), Australia and S.E. Asia in general.

[charliep]

Thanks for the info Charliep.

Tom I"am using Koraplast board (it comes in 4x 8 sheets and is a corrigated plastic) that i'am cutting into strips and fastening to the pickup reel to fill in between the fingers. I have seen this being used on reels in southern Alberta when they have had short crops and have worked good at little expense. It takes soon thought on how to fasten them on each particular pickup reel. Trouble is the lumber yard is now sold out of the board but hope to get some more in in a couple of days. Hope this helps you and others with what I have experenced.

Neighbors are cutting and baling my written off canola for $5.00 a bale and have a long lasting deal with another neighbor who takes the straw (wheat and pea) for $5.00 a bale or we half the straw if I need some. If the neighbor sells any of the straw which he hasn't over the years he will half the cash with me which is only fair. We both have agreed. Most years I have large amounts of straw that are hard to manage without baling it off. I don't like gouging my neighbors when thinks are tough for him or both of us.

[miquelon]

Hey Sewen,

Nothing like gouging your neighbour???? Where was the neighbour that paid a fair price for barley in 1998, 1999, and 2000 when the cow / calf guys were doing well? I sold barley at $1.70 off the yard in the fall of 1999 to pay for $450 / tonne urea. I don't like to put down the cow man but the grain guy is hurting every bit as much as the cowboy and we haven't had the benefit of several good years in a row prior to this drought.

Crop insurance is a joke. Barely covers basic inputs, leaving nothing for rent, capital, interest and living expenses etc. let alone putting in next year's crop. On one thing I think we all are agreed on. If we have another dry winter, then there will be no feed, no pasture, no grain, no straw and a lot fewer farmers!

Regarding greenfeed vs grain, one thing to consider is that presently market values are higher than crop insurance prices per bushel. Any bushel of canola harvested is worth close to $2 more than AFSC is paying for that same bushel. In my operation I would need an 6 - 8 bushel canola crop to pay harvest costs at this differential. Secondly crop insurance is based on total production. If you happen to have a field that was under an extra shower or two, any excess yield over the insured coverage level will discount the coverage value of a poorer field by that many bushels. If I sell the second field as green feed, with the idea that crop insurance will make up the difference. I could be in for a big surprise!

Bottom line? Anybody out there selling crop as feed better be getting the equavalent crop value at today's prices not crop insurance levels. It doesn't take many bushels to pay for harvesting and crop insurance isn't a failsafe backstop.

A third thing to consider is crop insurance is insurance. Higher payouts this year will ultimately lead to higher preimiums down the road. Long term it is our best interests not to farm for crop insurance. Even if premiums are subsidized by govt. that only means less money is available for other support programs that might make real difference to our standard of living.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I think the title should be "Silage or Grain" with the 2" of rain turning the greenfeed into straw...

At least the pastures are starting to regrow, In a couple of weeks they will help the feed situation...

Some very late crops of barley and canola might benefit with yield increases, the rest are finished... small tillers that did not die are filling but most spiklets in these heads aborted, it will sure be am early harvest for many!

[cowman]

My neighbor asked me what would be a good price for his standing barley crop. Badly burnt in places and now sort of flat in places due to the snow. I told him about $80/ton(not tonne) in the field or $90/ton if he cuts it...providing the nitrate levels are okay. He seems to think he needs a lot more than that and maybe he's right! I wasn't all that interested in it anyway. He's thinking in the neighborhood of $120 a ton. I told him to cut it and I'd bale it for $7/bale and haul and stack it for $2/bale and then he could find a buyer. Do these various prices sound pretty reasonable?