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Discussion on RAIL Revenue Cap for grain to export

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    Discussion on RAIL Revenue Cap for grain to export

    Dear Charlie et al.

    We have had some interesting discussions with
    neighbours about lack of transport services.

    WCWGA is flying a 'test ballon' that gives good detail
    on the present system... and a proposal to pay
    incentive rates in times of high demand for transport
    services.

    I note that significant grain is moving to the lower
    mainland BC area by truck... now... which if railways
    were able to extract huge premiums... this would be
    being done now as we speak.

    Here is the Background on how our system works now;
    thanks WCWGA for 'testing the waters' in a tough
    political climate with 'brave' ideas!

    Enjoy!
    Tom4cwb

    Background on the present system, WCWGA

    Under the Canada Transportation Act, the two main
    Canadian railways (CN and CP) are subject to a
    maximum revenue entitlement on shipments of grain
    and grain products from western Canada. This
    entitlement is commonly referred to as a revenue cap,
    although that is somewhat of a misnomer, as the
    revenue is not “capped”, but rather is adjusted to
    reflect the actual volume of grain shipped. The
    maximum revenue entitlement for each railway is also
    adjusted to reflect the average length of haul for grain
    shipped during the crop year, and inflation (or
    deflation) in railway input costs.

    Grain shipments subject to the revenue cap are those
    that are destined to west coast ports (Vancouver and
    Prince Rupert) and those destined to Thunder Bay and
    Armstrong (a station on the CN line directly north of
    Thunder Bay, enroute to central and eastern Canada).
    Rail grain shipments to the United States, to Churchill,
    beyond Thunder Bay / Armstrong, and to interior
    points within western Canada (e.g. the Fraser Valley)
    are not subject to the revenue cap and instead move
    under commercial freight rates.

    The base year for the revenue cap was established in
    the 2000-01 crop year, following a costing analysis
    undertaken as part of the Kroeger review. This analysis
    essentially updated the cost figures calculated under
    the 1992 costing review, as mandated under the now-
    repealed Western Grain Transportation Act.

    Formula for determining the revenue cap

    The formula for determining the maximum revenue
    entitlement for each railway company is set out in
    section 151 of the Canada Transportation Act. The
    formula is as follows:

    [A/B ((C - D) × $0.022)] × E × F
    where,

    A is the company’s revenues for the movement of grain
    in the base year;

    B is the number of tonnes of grain involved in the
    company’s movement of grain in the base year;

    C is the number of miles of the company’s average
    length of haul for the movement of grain in that crop
    year as determined by the Agency;

    D is the number of miles of the company’s average
    length of haul for the movement of grain in the base
    year;

    E is the number of tonnes of grain involved in the
    company’s movement of grain in the crop year as
    determined by the Agency; and

    F is the volume-related composite price index as
    determined by the Agency.

    The first term in the formula (i.e. A/B) effectively
    represents the average revenue per tonne (or average
    “freight rate”) that each railway was deemed to earn in
    the base year. For CN, this was $27.98 per tonne. For
    CP it was $26.12 per tonne. The higher CN rate reflects
    the fact that the average length of haul for CN was
    greater in the base year than the average length of
    haul for CP. CN’s average length of haul in the base
    year (term D in the above formula) was 1,045 miles.
    CP’s average length of haul was 897 miles.

    If the actual average length of haul (term C) for either
    railway in any given crop year happens to be equal to
    the length of haul in the base year, then the second
    term in the formula becomes zero (i.e. C – D = 0) and
    therefore no adjustment is made for the length of haul.
    If the average length of haul is either above or below
    the length of haul in the base year, then the revenue
    per tonne entitlement is adjusted by $0.022 for every
    mile the average is above or below the base year. For
    example, if the average length of haul for CN in any
    given crop year was 1,055 (i.e. 10 miles above the
    average in the base year) then the revenue per tonne
    entitlement (i.e. base freight rate) would be adjusted
    upward by 22 cents per tonne (i.e. 10 times $0.022).
    Similarly, if the average length of haul for CN was
    1,035, then the revenue per tonne entitlement would
    be adjusted downward by 22 cents per tonne.

    According to the Canadian Transportation Agency, the
    average length of haul for shipments by CN under the
    revenue cap has ranged from 930 to 1,040 miles over
    the past 13 years. The average length of haul for CP
    has ranged from 820 to 916 miles.

    The next term in the formula, variable E is the actual
    grain volume shipped by a railway company in a given
    crop year. In effect, the maximum revenue entitlement
    formula takes the average revenue per tonne
    entitlement (as adjusted for average length of haul)
    and multiplies it by the actual tonnes shipped. Thus,
    there is no “cap” on absolute revenue. The amount of
    revenue that each railway is entitled to receive is
    directly correlated to the volume of grain shipped.
    Agency statistics over the past 13 years record that the
    grain volume shipped by CN under the revenue cap has
    ranged from a low of 7.3 million tonnes in 2002-03 to
    a high of 17.1 million tonnes in 2011-12. The grain
    volume shipped by CP has ranged from 9.1 million
    tonnes in 2002-03 to 16.4 million tonnes in 2012-13.

    The next term in the formula, variable F is the volume-
    related composite price index (VRCPI). This index is a
    measure of price inflation (or deflation) of certain
    railway input costs including labour, fuel, materials
    and capital. The index was set at 1.0 for the 2000-01
    crop year and is adjusted annually in a determination
    made by the Canadian Transportation Agency. For the
    2013-14 crop year, the VRCPI is set at 1.2691. In other
    words, railway input costs have climbed by 26.91%
    since 2000-01.

    This means that the average maximum revenue per
    tonne that CN is allowed to charge in the 2013-14
    crop year on statutory grain shipments is $35.51 per
    tonne (i.e. $27.98 in the base year

    1 Canadian Transportation Agency. Western grain
    revenue cap statistics, 2000-01 to 2012-13.
    http://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/publication/western-
    grain-revenue-cap-statistics times 1.2691), assuming
    the average length of haul is the same as it was (i.e.
    1,045 miles) in the base year. For CP, the average
    maximum revenue per tonne allowed in 2013-14 is
    $33.15 per tonne (i.e. $26.12 times 1.2691).

    In summary then, the revenue cap calculation for each
    railway is based on the maximum revenue per tonne
    entitlement (as adjusted by average length of haul and
    inflation) multiplied by the actual tonnage shipped by
    each railway.

    Wheat Grower proposal (to add incentives)

    The Wheat Growers propose an incentive be built into
    the maximum revenue entitlement to encourage the
    railways to add extra grain shipping capacity during
    the peak post-harvest shipping period (i.e. September
    to January). We propose the revenue entitlement for
    each railway be adjusted upward if the number of
    grain cars shipped by the railway during this period
    exceed a predetermined threshold by a certain
    percentage. The incentive entitlement could also be
    designed such that the incentive increases as the
    amount above threshold increases – in effect, the
    greater the shipments, the greater the incentive.
    For illustration purposes, let’s suppose the baseline car
    shipments is established for a railway company at
    5,000 cars per week or 100,000 cars over the 20
    weeks in the post-harvest shipping period. If actual
    shipments were say, 5% above 100,000 cars, then the
    revenue cap for that railway company would be
    adjusted upward, by say 1%. If actual shipments were
    10% above the baseline threshold, then the revenue
    cap would be adjusted upward by 2% or perhaps by a
    higher amount if the decision was made to
    progressively increase the incentive entitlement.
    In effect, we are proposing to amend the maximum
    revenue entitlement formula as follows:

    [A/B ((C - D) × $0.022)] × E × F × G
    where,
    G is an incentive-based entitlement if grain shipments
    during the peak post-harvest shipping period are a
    certain percentage above a pre-established baseline.
    The baseline threshold, the level at which the incentive
    is to be triggered, and the amount of the incentive are
    all to be determined. These parameters would be
    established and set out by regulation after the federal
    government consults with railways, shippers and
    farmers.

    Some considerations in establishing an incentive-
    based revenue cap

    In determining the appropriate incentive entitlement to
    incorporate into the formula, some issues need to be
    addressed. These include:


    1) Setting an appropriate threshold base. In our view,
    the baseline threshold should be set at a level that is
    considered to be the “normal” level of shipments (in
    terms of volume of grain or number of cars shipped) in
    the peak post-harvest shipping period. Perhaps this
    could be set on the basis of a five or ten year historical
    average, adjusted upward by trendline increases in
    grain production or rail shipments. A determination
    would also have to be made as to the appropriate start
    and end date of the “peak post-harvest shipping
    period” so as to establish a suitable baseline threshold
    for each railway during that period.

    2) Determining which shipments should be included in
    the threshold base. In our view, the threshold base
    should include grain and grain product shipments to
    all destinations, whether they are governed by the
    revenue cap or not. If the incentive entitlement were to
    be restricted to railcars shipped under the revenue cap,
    then that would act as a disincentive for railways to
    ship cars to other destinations, such as the U.S.,
    eastern Canada or within western Canada. In our view,
    including all shipments as the basis for calculating the
    incentive entitlement will minimize any market
    distortions. We recognize that shipments with a quick
    turnaround time will be favoured under our proposal
    however, if the primary objective is to move as much
    grain as quickly as possible during the peak post-
    harvest period, this is not seen as a negative.
    Moreover, shipments with long turnaround times (e.g.
    shipments to the southern U.S. or Mexico) move at
    commercial rates and so presumably these rates will
    reflect the longer turnaround times.

    3) Determining the amount of the incentive.
    Depending on where the baseline threshold is set, a
    determination would have to be made as to when the
    incentive is triggered, and the level of that incentive
    entitlement. For example, the incentive may be set at
    0% if shipments are less than 5% above normal. This
    would be considered normal variation. At 5% above
    threshold, the incentive may be 1%; at 10% it may be
    2%, etc. The incentive scale could be linear or increase
    progressively as the amount of shipments exceeds the
    base threshold, subject to some overall maximum
    limit. A decision would also have to be made on the
    increment levels. In our view, the incentive entitlement
    should be graduated on fairly fine increments, so there
    is not a huge difference in entitlement between just
    hitting or just missing a certain threshold level.

    4) Whether a railway company exceeds its threshold,
    and by how much, depends on whether there are
    sufficient car orders from grain companies and other
    shippers. In those years where there is a shortfall in
    crop production, or slow customer orders, there would
    be no need to add rail capacity and no incentive would
    be paid. In effect, variable G would equal 1.0 and there
    would be no impact on the revenue cap.

    5) Consideration was given as to whether the formula
    should be adjusted downward if rail shipments fall
    below a certain threshold. While we see the merit in
    imposing a penalty for poor performance, it is our view
    that addressing such performance issues are better
    dealt with through service level agreements that the
    railways negotiate with shippers. In years where there
    was a short crop or weak demand, it would not be
    appropriate to penalize the railways due to a lack of
    car orders.

    Moreover, if the objective is to add railway capacity
    when it is needed most, then our view is that a “carrot”
    approach is preferable to a “stick”.

    6) It is recognized that the maximum grain revenue
    entitlement is determined “after the fact”. That is, the
    maximum revenue cap that each railway is entitled to
    receive is determined in the months following the crop
    year. This is necessary because the actual volume of
    grain shipped under the revenue cap, and the average
    length of haul cannot be determined until the crop
    year is concluded. Similarly, the “incentive entitlement”
    (variable G) contemplated here will be determined after
    the crop year is concluded. However, as is the case
    now, the railways will know precisely how much grain
    they are shipping on a weekly basis and will have the
    ability to adjust their freight rates throughout the crop
    year to take into account any incentive entitlement
    they may earn. That said, given the ability for the
    railways to continually assess volumes (and estimate
    future volumes), the freight rate charged to shippers
    will likely be reasonably consistent throughout the
    crop year (or at least not more variable than it is
    today), even though the revenue per tonne earned by
    the railways will be at its highest during the peak
    shipping period in those years when the extra shipping
    capacity is needed.

    7) In determining the baseline threshold, and in
    deciding upon the incentive trigger and the incentive
    rate, the goal is to set these at such a level that the
    railways will devote greater resources (cars, crews and
    power) to shipping grain during the peak post-harvest
    shipping period, and that the benefits to farmers
    outweigh the added cost. As noted above, the purpose
    of this incentive-based model is to add shipping
    capacity if and when it is needed. It is not designed to
    address specific performance-based issues, which in
    our view, are better dealt with through penalties,
    bonuses or other measures negotiated as part of the
    service level agreements between shippers and
    railways.

    Overall railway compensation under the revenue cap
    It should be noted that this proposal is not about
    increasing the overall compensation to the railways for
    shipping grain. It may result in increased
    compensation to the railways if farmers and shippers
    determine, through their individual decisions, that they
    want to ship a larger than normal amount of grain
    during the peak post-harvest shipping period. If there
    is a short crop, or if customer demand is not present,
    or if farmers would prefer to hold on to their grain (for
    example, if they expect prices to rise) then the
    incentive-based component of the revenue cap
    (variable G) would not be triggered.

    Admittedly, in years where there is a large crop and/or
    large customer demand, farmers will end up paying
    higher overall freight rates than they would under the
    existing revenue cap. However, the wide basis levels
    we are experiencing this crop year, the lack of delivery
    opportunity and the missed sales opportunities are
    undoubtedly costing farmers a great deal more than
    would be the case if there was a reasonable incentive
    for the railways to add capacity when it is needed the
    most.

    A related, but separate issue is whether the
    compensation now provided to the railways provides
    an adequate and suitable return to the railways for
    their investment, and whether compensation
    on an ongoing basis will be sufficient to encourage the
    railways to add capacity to meet future demand. As
    such, the Wheat Growers recommend that a review of
    the overall adequacy of compensation under the
    revenue cap be undertaken.

    We note that the last review of railway costs and
    returns in shipping grain was conducted in 1998 as
    part of the Kroeger review process. It was this review
    (and the earlier recommendations of Justice Estey) that
    led to the establishment of the revenue cap in the
    2000-01 crop year. In light of the problems
    experienced this year, we consider it timely to conduct
    a further review with a view to updating the base
    numbers if necessary.

    The review should take into account the productivity
    gains the railways have achieved since 2000-01 and a
    determination as to how much of these gains should
    be shared with farmers through a reduction in the
    revenue cap. Further, the Wheat Growers recommend
    an independent assessment be undertaken comparing
    railway returns on grain shipments to returns on the
    shipment of other commodities. Such an assessment
    would assist in determining whether the revenue the
    railways earn from shipping grain is at an appropriate
    level or not.

    Summary

    In proposing an incentive-based revenue cap, the
    Wheat Growers are seeking to encourage the railways
    to add more shipping capacity when it is needed. In
    many respects, it is an attempt to incorporate some
    “market signals” into the revenue cap. Long-term, it is
    our hope that railway competition increases (including
    expanded linkages with U.S. based railway companies),
    and that the livestock and processing sector in western
    Canada expand to such an extent that there is no
    longer a need for a revenue cap or any other form of
    railway rate regulation. We recognize such an ideal
    scenario is likely years if not decades away. In the
    meantime, the Wheat Growers see an incentive-based
    revenue cap as the best means to encourage greater
    investment in railway surge capacity, while ensuring
    farmers and shippers are charged rates that
    approximate those that would occur in a competitive
    rail market.

    We recognize that several parameters of this incentive-
    based revenue cap model need to be negotiated
    among government, railways, shippers and farmers. At
    this stage, the Wheat Growers are seeking support for
    the concept and welcome any suggestions for
    improvement.

    It must be emphasized that this proposal is not about
    increasing overall railway revenue. It’s about
    encouraging the railways to dedicate extra resources to
    shipping grain when the marketplace demands it. The
    question of whether overall compensation to the
    railways for shipping grain is adequate to meet future
    demand is a separate, albeit related, matter. An
    updated review of costs and returns under the revenue
    cap is needed to make this assessment.

    The Wheat Growers recognize this model is but one of
    several measures that must be taken to address the
    shortfall in rail shipping capacity for grain. We contend
    however that an incentive- based revenue cap will be
    an important step toward a rail transportation system
    that better serves the future needs of farmers, shippers
    and our customers.

    Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association

    I think it is very good the WCWGA put this information
    forward in a very timely manner.

    If you have suggestions about how to make the present
    system work better... not just whining.. that would be
    great!

    Cheers!
    Tom4cwb
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