Selling canola????

[parsley]

About a month ago my accountant
emailed me suggesting I sell some
canola.

It was a bit over $12 at the time.

Gee I wish I would have taken his
advice and sold a bit more.

Yields have been a lot better than
expected and would have liked to be a
bit more sold at this time

[farmaholic]

I dont think my accountant would ever advise me
to sell or hold based on prices. Other reasons
maybe. Is yours a accountant/market analyst.
MNP or FBC?

[errolanderson]

The risk to canola right now is corn (IMO). If corn blows another tire, down goes canola (as will all other grains).
USDA last week wasn't enough to feed a bull market (IMO)

Early corn yields are huge, well above USDA guessimates. Suspect USDA is light on their corn yield as big crops typically get bigger and the true size of the American corn crop will show up in their Nov report.

In the meantime, canola basis levels will remain under pressure as a 16 million MT crop may be harvested right now. We hold our breath on the futures.

[LWeber]

16 million...LOL

[errolanderson]

Larry . . . what's your guess???

[errolanderson]

I'm with MNP. Our operation and my
fathers have been with that office as
long as I can remember.

I guess I communication like that
because my accountant operates his own
corporate farm. He communcates with me
lots and I the same in reverse.

It works for us, others may have the
same with their firm, no matter the
name.

From what hopper says, I don't FBC would
have a clue about farming at an
operational level. I have a couple
friends that use them also and it seems
its a young kid and a different person
every year.

[LWeber]

You may guess - I don't. If you are not guessing what are you using for yields in all three Provinces?

I have surveyed 80,000 acres through phone/email and yes, I still walk in fields over three Provinces.

I won't piss in every farmer's cornflakes.

The USDA is at 15.15 MMT. That is the highest published production at the moment.

[errolanderson]

larry, lowest guess from the trade that I have heard is 15.5. yes, it is a pure 'guess',as I haven't walked fields like you have across 3 provinces. but trade 'guesses' appear more accurate than gov't data.

bottomline . . . this is solely a basis issue. futures will be determined by pathway of beans and corn.

[crusher]

My canola will yield less than last year. Lots drowned out. Lots too wet to spray with fungicide. Its not all bumper.

[tstep]

My canola was about the same as last year. Yields down due to being to wet in spring. Not a good emergence

[HappyFarmer]

Biggest crop ever here.

I knew it would be good, but not like this.

[freewheat]

Below average canola for me too. Seven
guys saying LOUDLY they got 60 bushels
does not make it a 16 million tonne crop.

[Livewire]

Sell sell the sky is falling. No more bin space.
Farmed too many acres and had to sell most of it
already no matter the price. Move it now don't
want to plow snow to get at it later. All this helps
to draw the supply down. If its in the bin and we
are smart enough to hold it the price has to be
bid up to get it. Could be wrong this year but for a
lot of years in a row now WAY better later on. Hey
it's bone dry it'll store!

[Rustyjunk]

Hey Happy, how was that H75? How was it to
swath?

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny I've been getting lots of texts from all over
sask that they heard 60 plus got excited the
started harvesting and oh it's only 38.
One guy was almost crying! Kind of over spent on
his crop, listened to too many advisors.
But in our area most are saying we're back to a
normal overall crop no bumper just it's nice to be
back to normal!
Good harvest! We're rained out today 1/2 inch so
far!