Prairie dude just glad no one is spell checking. I am mad not cause I dont know how rolling and using futures works. The way I look at it is someone lost or made on a squeeze when the farmer with product or the buyer needing product is not part of the equation then it is not functioning properly. I spell good. I just think the farmer should still be involved at bin level.
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maybe its been broken for ever but was itbnot desinged for farmers
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I didn't know farmers couldn't trade the cash month. But, would you really want to risk standing for delivery or having a warehouse receipt handed to you?
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Braveheart, the problem is there is too much "buyers choice" on what futures contract is used for cash price. This is how they divorce a farmer friendly basis from a farmer friendly price. I realize that the futures are a derivative for the cash market but it seems like more often than not it's being manipulated to the advantage of the buyer. Has anyone ever delivered physical against a short paper position?
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Too much choice which month is cash price? I don't understand. Isn't it always the nearby till the 15th of the closest month?
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I'm certain physical has been delivered before. Was likely more prevalent when Van was the basis pricing point. I don't know now that central SK is the par region.
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Braveheart you wouldn't likely be in the delivery month as a long position holder if you weren't prepared to take delivery. As a producer you should have the ability though to stay short and use the threat of delivery to help ensure futures and cash converge. The ICE Canola contract is likely to go the way of its other contracts (ie. barley) if they are not careful.
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Good comments BFW. I agree, ICE canola volume will continue to decline as did feed barley with the consolidation of our industry. Too few players needing to hedge their risk. Without a futures market, graincos just revert back to cash, and maintain a comfortable spread between elevator bids and export prices as their hedge mechanism.
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When I listen to market reports on the radio, there are always comments like " canola is dropping in sympathy with soybeans or oil..." etc.
The markets in Canada are dysfunctional. Using US markets like the old agency did was fine until they got caught short.
There are alot more players using the futures in the states, that is why it has more volume.
The "families" in Canada don't need to use futures markets, most are vertically integrated, so they just feed the peasants (farmers) as they please.
Canola should not be discounted to soy even with a record crop in Canada, how do some of you guys think it got so low priced with high oil content?
My guess is the families just got together over a beer one night and decided to tell their marketing reps to say " yeah but 45 bpa is still over 400 bucks an acre" and farmers decided they could buy some new overpriced paint at that rate. And just like a drug addict the process started.
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If you want to use the futures markets more effectively you need to have the right quality of grain in the bin. Taking basis contracts on crop in the field that you may not harvest only adds risk and actually plays into the hands of the buyer. Number one job for farmer is get grain to bin in good condition. Then you have options and at least started to gain some negotiating advantage. Also need to remember,"your competitor is your friend, your customer is the enemy." think about it.
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Also need to remember,"your competitor is your friend, your customer is the enemy."
Dont agree with that. Agree get the grain in the bin in good condition grow it efficiently. I think our futures are not working cause they are not priced at the farmers bin. Farmers product is not part of final trade. Grain buyers should have their position of middle man if they want that position between final buyer or another middle buyer. Where is webber when you need him? I can sell grain get to terminal and loaded on a rail car within a week if the system is working. Or bagged loaded can not sure but it should. Why shouldnt our bins be on the final trade????
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Good comments on here, except for Mel Gibson acting like everyone who disagrees with the status quo is a commie. It's not 1927 and it's not 1963, these are real problems and the "family" monopolies are unfairly protected by a largely closed system. (False capitalism at its worst.)
If I remember my movies, Braveheart was about fighting oppression, not laying in the dirt and taking it.
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