Wheat oversold?

[malleefarmer]

How much more daylight between current prices and bottom?

Yes there is a lot of wheat corn and beans in the world but surely its all factored in by now?

Oil lower dow lower, metals mostly lower is everything pointing to lower ag commodities

Had a friend who sold wheat futures when they were at 610 which wasn't a huge number everyone said he was mad hes sitting pretty

[Hopperbin]

In canada pig feeding wheatnis worth more than human. Figure that one out. Asking wrong country.

[malleefarmer]

thinking things could be depressed for 2 years not so bullish aa I was 4 months ago

[Braveheart]

Wheat contracts may be getting oversold, but will likely move lower yet. I'm bearish wheat.

Mallefarmer, not sure about 2 years, but I think we're in for at least a year of depressed wheat prices.

We took some protection (Dec MGE) in late April but wish we had done more of course.

Basis deals have come along but been filled quickly.

Once we're actually long physical wheat and know quantity and quality I guess we'll just play the old reward rallies with sales strategy.

Right now it's a challenge trying to keep our cost per bushel down.

[hobbyfrmr]

Braveheart,

You may want to look up that young Schultz farmer in Alberta. If memory serves me, the Globe and Mail article claimed he grows wheat for about $2.50 per bushel. That is a low cost. He is a good farmer.

[TOM4CWB]

Hobby

On $3k land and average yields... In Alberta... Someone is pulling someone's leg. No cost for Capital?

Pulse stubble with no Fert? Both?

[Braveheart]

Shultz eh? Verrry interesting. But is he crazy?

We have 3k/acre land. At today's cash price we needed just over 90 bu/acre to breakeven when we did our budgets back in Feb. Now in season, we have cut out fungicide at herbicide time, and lowered some fertilizer rates.

Early yield guess on the wheat is mid 80.

[bgmb]

I believe he could easily grow wheat for $250/ac including opportunity cost of land rent. If he gets 100bu/ac i guess that math makes sense.

[Braveheart]

Not arguing the point. Everyone's situation is different.

I do agree with mallee. Wheat is in a downtrend. Reports of poor US yields hasn't made a difference.

[errolanderson]

mallee . . . 'dead cat' bounce at best.

European cash wheat prices are very weak

[ado089]

We still have a burdensome supply in western Canada. That said every time I take a drive I see another pile gone for shit or bag bust open so it's shrinking.

[ado089]

I often wonder how many of these young, and maybe some of the older, farmers have their own bank accounts.

[blackpowder]

About the Schulz article. Can't we just realize he was bullshitting us and move on?

Mallee. Ya, I'm worried. They don't call wheat the cockroach of grains for nothing. For years our average price was $5. But for various reasons my costs are sure different. Not sure if I'm in the fear or hope stage. Considering doing a purge of the market "information" / opinion I pay for. Right now in the store and prey mindset. Am I right or wrong??

[hobbyfrmr]

I forgot to note the sarcasm in first response. It is a little tough to move off the subject because the articles are nicely presented, ergo every hard working non farming soul who reads the globe and mail get the impression every farmer just hast to follow this recipe to success. In the meantime, there are several farms of all sizes bleeding cash out of every orifice, simply from the change in commodity prices.
I agree wheat is on a downward trend. Industry is still using terms like "ample", "sufficient" and "burdensome".

[malleefarmer]

Barley price is ugly here as well will post some up to date prices here I know some of you will say there money in storing grain which I agree with at times but currently anyone who has held wheat for last 4 months unsold would be questioning the wisdom at best