We have no where near the rain that most have, and our 7444 still looks poor..Small leaves, short for this time of the yr.. 34", been flowering since July 1st...Last yr. at this time the canola was 46" tall..Later seeded stuff looks better, but is a week away from bolting..
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Canola is their a great crop out their somewhere!
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From Moose Jaw to Watson, 70% of canola crops are shit, 20 max. Unbelievable amount of LATE crops. Yellow or drowned out 30% of acres. Water everywhere, Quill Lake way past #6, saw a yard bermed water all around. That's a huge area. Sprayers on blooming weeds in crops. Some wheat and oats are good but missing 10-20% due to water. Harvest nightmare unless this rain quits now! Sad to see all that land look like crap. A zero year, waste of resources for so many.
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Fjlip. In years like this the affected should at least hope for their expenses back, so they can do it all again next year. Capital preservation.......
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What I know.
July 31 Canadian canola carryover likely about 3 MMT or just slightly smaller. Canola is moving at a good pace in the commercial system since April.
2014/15 Canadian canola disappearance likely in the 15.5 to 16 MMT range. Exports 8.5 MMT isn. Crush 7.5 MMT isn.
You write in your number on Canadian canola production.
Soybeans on in a melt down at present with expectations for a monster US crop. In particular, soybean oil at under 38 cents per pound will limit anything canola can do price wise.
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Your strategies ahead will be as much basis improvement as higher futures. Seems to be support at $450 on the November contract. Can it hold. Your call. A smaller crop will support prices but there are lots of other factors including what grain companies sell/move. The last quarter, canola has been the chosen crop.
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Ok I'll play your game all bins in east sask will be empty of canola by end of July or aug mid point! Why cash flow we got f$&ked royally on rail movement those in Alberta can't comprehend! Crushers need product their open on sat even!
So your ending number will be way lower unless all you super marketers in Alberta that presold all last years canola were full of shit!
Then the shot show your a smart man Charlie draw a line from pa to stoon to moosejaw then down to border look at shay is the major crop grown east of that line! Now take acres last year yield last year and divide by two now for west side of that line take last year and cut back abut their is your crop production total !
Now throw in cSnola since last fall traded all winter at a. 4 dollar discount! From soy!
Wtf you live in a bubble!
No prices won't go back to 14 but should be higher than soy!
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