Canola is their a great crop out their somewhere!

[newguy]

South sask acres down 10% yield down so far 10% from last year. If we get a stretch of hot wind that 10% yield loss could go to 30 or 50% in a hurry. But at the best will be at least 20% less canola in the bins around here this fall.

[blackpowder]

Yah, to keep it short. %20 less here this year too.

"Hurry boys, the basis is narrow and futures inverted." "Lock your fall delivery NOW"

[charliep]

My experience is the market doesn't care what experts think. The market is about commercial activity - actual trades/sales. What would you have the market do differently? What supply demand for 2014/15? What price? Actually working on a forecast this week so you can influence outcome.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok Charlie what if the crop is as bad as I say! Were already two to three below soy! Over supply was the word last fall! Now the market works at getting the crop in the bin for a steep discount. Here is my question why all over the world countries tell how their crop is yet in canada it's let's study oh don't worry flooded acres could come back oh it was just a minor frost or it's only one rain away from a bumper! Dah maybe we need some crop reporting that's actually crop reporting not just tell the world were doing all right! Market is not getting the real story that's the info That's needed! Not feel good attitude!

[Braveheart]

Sk3, the market knows what's going on. There are several sources. Here in MB, what used to be called Ag Reps are paid spies. Always have been. Local grain cos are constantly updating head office on the size and condition of area crops. Grain cos care little at what level futures are at as they trade the basis. Also, the CWB has always had and continues to have an excellent surveillance system.

What's happened here on the prairies will eventually find it's way. Whether or not it brings more buyers and fewer sellers will depend on a lot more factors than just prairie crops.

[Partners]

We have no where near the rain that most have, and our 7444 still looks poor..Small leaves, short for this time of the yr.. 34", been flowering since July 1st...Last yr. at this time the canola was 46" tall..Later seeded stuff looks better, but is a week away from bolting..

[fjlip]

From Moose Jaw to Watson, 70% of canola crops are shit, 20 max. Unbelievable amount of LATE crops. Yellow or drowned out 30% of acres. Water everywhere, Quill Lake way past #6, saw a yard bermed water all around. That's a huge area. Sprayers on blooming weeds in crops. Some wheat and oats are good but missing 10-20% due to water. Harvest nightmare unless this rain quits now! Sad to see all that land look like crap. A zero year, waste of resources for so many.

[bucket]

Every day I look at my crop I struggle to justify putting more money into them other than a preharvest shot of round up.

JUst cut my losses and get ready for next year.

[farmaholic]

Fjlip. In years like this the affected should at least hope for their expenses back, so they can do it all again next year. Capital preservation.......

[tstep]

Just touring around the Grand Prairie fairview rycroft sexsmith areas and there is spots of beautiful crops but there are a lot of shitty one out here to. Half of the canola was good half was WTF!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

So Alberta isn't all roses!

[corey890]

We are burning up in the peace, canola is going to suffer this week and next with 33 forcasted for the next seven days. Some areas havent had any rainfall since seeding.

[charliep]

What I know.

July 31 Canadian canola carryover likely about 3 MMT or just slightly smaller. Canola is moving at a good pace in the commercial system since April.

2014/15 Canadian canola disappearance likely in the 15.5 to 16 MMT range. Exports 8.5 MMT isn. Crush 7.5 MMT isn.

You write in your number on Canadian canola production.

Soybeans on in a melt down at present with expectations for a monster US crop. In particular, soybean oil at under 38 cents per pound will limit anything canola can do price wise.

[charliep]

Your strategies ahead will be as much basis improvement as higher futures. Seems to be support at $450 on the November contract. Can it hold. Your call. A smaller crop will support prices but there are lots of other factors including what grain companies sell/move. The last quarter, canola has been the chosen crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok I'll play your game all bins in east sask will be empty of canola by end of July or aug mid point! Why cash flow we got f$&ked royally on rail movement those in Alberta can't comprehend! Crushers need product their open on sat even!
So your ending number will be way lower unless all you super marketers in Alberta that presold all last years canola were full of shit!
Then the shot show your a smart man Charlie draw a line from pa to stoon to moosejaw then down to border look at shay is the major crop grown east of that line! Now take acres last year yield last year and divide by two now for west side of that line take last year and cut back abut their is your crop production total !
Now throw in cSnola since last fall traded all winter at a. 4 dollar discount! From soy!
Wtf you live in a bubble!
No prices won't go back to 14 but should be higher than soy!