Grain movement and prices

[Hopalong]

This topic seems to have got quiet all of a sudden.

On movement, still see a few grain bags, one yard still has open piles. Would think piles must be a total loss.
Our own farm has moved what we wanted to, thanks to grain companies for honouring contracts.
Not hearing much new from from grower and elevator groups or railways. Seem to be stuck in same positions as last March.

Perhaps time to consider contracts for new crop production.
Key question is whether we will see world demand again increase to meet production as we have seen several times in recent years or whether we are getting into several years of surplus production as happened repeatedly in past.

[fjlip]

Text from Pioneer, $7.50 basis special on 1CWRS 12.0 equals $4.50, wow price your crop! Make em wait.

[cottonpicken]

We bounce tomorrow

[charliep]

I suspect the response to the last paragraph will depend on which crop. Wheat hasn't had the hype but nice steady growth. Oilseeds are transitioning to something else with years of consumption driven growth finally coming home to roost (best information today). Similar comment on feedgrains.

I will be hated here but am an optimist in the long term. I contract the consumption side of crops and the is a steady upward. This will not change even if just population growth. I also see the improvements coming from a larger and weathier world middle class. The volatility is around production so I can't say we won't have a couple of years of expanding world carryovers.

I am an optimist on domestic movement at least to this fall. Things have been working a lot better since April.

[wakopa]

as good as done,55 dollar basis and its gonna go down another 10 to 20 dollars.should get over 7.50 average on 20000 bu.

[Hopalong]

SF3 makes much of expectation that this year grain production will be down from last year, perhaps only one quarter or half in his area.
When we start to look back, would be no surprise to see us back to previous five year average of 60 million tonnes, down from last year 80 million.
Still think we can get to 80 as an average, may take five years or more, as well as big increase in shipping and handling capacity to get it to market.
If we can't find investment money for shipping capacity, we limit ourselves.
Best path forward is neither excess optimism or pessimism but try to be realistic.

[bucket]

Don't hold your breath thinking something might change in transportation.

In 1997 we had the same problems and not one thing has change as far as capacity to move any exports.

Which is why I find it laughable when statscan calls saying they are doing a survey to help make changes. Why dont they start by doing trendline yields from 1997 and telling the government the transportation capacity this country needs.

Its ok for the experts and analysts to use some sort of trendline yield to justify prices but not one person uses that same data to figure out how to move increased production of all exports.

sheesh its not rocket science.

[macdon02]

If we don't bounce up tomorrow this will be horrific. Corn broke trendline, beans are on it. Thinking the sharks are circling they smell blood. Doubt many are sold or hedged. Lots of denial the last year and everyone's looking for an up move to clean out 13 crop. what's the plan if we drop?

[Braveheart]

I don't know about sharks but bears are leaving the woods and gathering around pits.

[cottonpicken]

Ooops ****ed that up,thought we would have made a counter trend trade after a report,would have called opposite if chart was opposite ,hope the long,long,supports hold.

[macdon02]

No fup in stating an opinion, you follow EW cotton? They better be wrong. Hoping protein premium hangs in cause if wheat goes to feed value I ll be looking for a cash advance and sweet spot in third world country.

[ado089]

Could be tough to get paid for protein this year with the drought in the US.

[fjlip]

Prt will be a BIG discount if ours is low due HIGH US levels!

[Hopalong]

Attention has shifted from rail movement to prospective lower Canadian and higher world production.
We must not ignore expected increasing demand for grain and other shipping capacity in future years.
Instead of increased regulation and penalties, grain shippers and farmers can work together on incentives to get more investment and competition from railways.
A start would be more of a willingness to work together by grower groups with elevators and other grain handlers and buyers.
Discussions and negotiations are a better bet than a confrontational or adversarial approach.

[ado089]

Hopalong, it's pretty hard to work together when the rails have a **** you attitude and language like "right sizing" is being used. I'm a big fan of rewarding good behavior but over the decades when it comes to farmers dealing with rails it's one compromise after another. Another thing to keep in mind is that the big private company of CN has only existed as a private company for less time than most, if not all of us have been alive. No company could build from scratch in 1995 what the government sold as CN. There has to be some responsibility that comes with a deal like that.