CharlieP

[farmaholic]

Good morning Charlie. Could you post the recent charts and graphs for the COPA crush margins for soy versus canola. And what canola is selling for off the west coast. I assume this info is at your fingertips and your posting skills would make it more presentable.

Thanks...

[charliep]

Will do. The following is the link to CGC grain statistics weekly.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2013-14/week-semaine-48/gsw-shg-48-en.htm"]Week 48[/URL]

Relevant canola numbers. Deliveries first 48 weeks - 14.3 MMT. Exports over this period - 8.1 MMT. Visible supplies - 800,000 tonnes.

[charliep]

This week's newsletter. Will let graphs speak for themselves.

[URL="http://copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYJuly92014.pdf"]COPA July 9[/URL]

[farmaholic]

Thank you Charlie.

Look at the difference between canola versus soybean crush margins.... Anyone see room for price improvement for raw canola seed?

And the price off the west coast is?

[charliep]

I find the recent increase in crush/percent use of capacity most interesting. Domestic crush was in the doldrums all winter but increased recently. I suspect all crushers are masters at managing crush margin risk/locking in profitability via futures strategies so todays crush is likely not a good indication of profitability. Also reflects futures and not cash margins based on canola purchases and oil/meal sales.

I still think Canada has a 3 MMT carryover so lots of canola still for sale. The issue will be farmers will be very reluctant sellers until the questions around this years crop size get answered. Both crush and exports remain pretty aggressive so the trade will need to keep prices high enough to keep deliveries flowing.

Just a student of the market - not an expert - so have to keep watching.

[Rareearth]

Wow. 1/3 of the crop not sold or delivered yet. I'm think back when canola was a 10 mil bushel crop.

If it is that high it will weigh on the market, it won't really matter what size the crop is. If the carry over is held by guys then they are some where in the greed-fear-panic cycle. Are we between the fear- panic now?

[charliep]

Just to put the numbers in context, the 3 MMT is about 1/6 th of last years crop. Stocks use is just 20 percent or 2 1/2 months. I actually think my carryover may be high for the reason bgmb indicated in another thread - truck movement across the border into the US is not included. Market will feel tighter until farmers are more comfortable with their production. I see good commercial demand over the next 2 months but I have to admit that October scares me a bit - I think at some point grain companies with refocus movement to wheat from canola more than today. IMHO.

[charliep]

The 3 MMT is total carryover. 2 MMT ish farm stocks and 1 MMT in commercial position. The 2 MMT farm stocks is 10 times the on farm canola on July 31, 2013.

[Braveheart]

The positive side of a 2mmt on farm stocks. Umber is that it represents 860 million plus dollars in current assets on farm. For some unfortunately wet farms that could be a welcome number.