canadian canola

[SASKFARMER3]

Spoilage due to flooding! And yes farmer total on farm will be lower. Then total USA coming across border?
Or will it be manipulated like usda!
Basically this years crop is nice in Alberta and some areas of sask and man! Flooded still looks like shit! It's a lower total than 2013! Now only thing would help if the USA got a frost after our canola has made some thing! Then who knows!

[Braveheart]

Charlie, I was going to ask about the sustainable fuels. So has the crush dedicated to biodiesel dropped in recent years? Crude prices don't seem to be as much of a fundamental in the market (oilseed). Has fracking had an influence?

[charliep]

I don't know the answer to your last question on fracking other than another source of energy and make North America energy self sufficient. New technology means a lot more ability to break carbon moleculars and turn into other products including different types of fuels.

I watch political instability in the world and wonder what will happen. Bio diesel use has decreased a lot in Europe but I watch the situation in Ukraine/Russia and wonder about the impact on their fuel security. Home grown fuels may look better. At the same time, the impact of the geopolitical situation/embargoes may be real pain to an EU economy already struggling. That could reduce fuel demand.

No answers. Just more questions.

I am a SWOT analysis type guy.

What about the things we have no control over (Opportunities and Threats). What are the things we can do within our control (Strengths and Weaknesses).

[farming101]

Charlie, there are additional unlicensed exports to the US this year of 395,961 tonnes to the end of May 2014.
If you take that amount away from your 2.3 million tonne carry out you get about 1.9 million.

[ado089]

There's still gobs of wheat out there but last years canola crop was probably 3-5 bpa short of what they thought it was and this years crop will come in below expectations. I haven't seen many crops with potential over 50 in the really good areas and there several that will struggle to break 20 in the poor areas. My expectation is they will be off the same 3-5 bpa this year too.

[charliep]

farming101

I am light on the exports. A 2 MMT carryover is very realistic before any discussion on 2013 production has occurred. I will leave my number on the plus side of 2but could be wrong.

[farming101]

Charlie, you could be right too!

[westernvicki]

The light green colour of the canola fields this year, is that variety, fertilizer shortages, or disease? Walked in a few fields and my guess is in many areas this is NOT last years crop, but indeed like last year, would LOVE to be surprised on the combine.

Stats numbers have an impact but farmer selling psychology of a lower yielding crop plays a huge factor in value. Ie; a suggested retail of a 40 plus crop is hugely different that suggested retail of an under 40 bushel average.

This year 10$ bids triggered the grower to sell, based on average yields there was money in 10$ canola sales on most farms. It will be interesting to see where the producer trigger is this year, as indeed we should recognize this factor in farm values.

The lemming theory of pricing.

[charliep]

I agree. Count trucks in the line up at the local crushing plant/elevator and you will have a good handle on basis.

My two bits for what they are worth is that $10/bu ($440/tonne) will be a rare and may not happen this fall. Futures will struggle because of the monster US soybean crop. Basis will be better improve this year depending on crop size.

In the areas of Alberta I have toured through, harvest will be pretty much in full swing September 1 plus/minus a bit. Will let conversations/speculation on yields continue here but Alberta at least should be close to an average (not a bin buster like 2013 or a disaster).

To look at the disappearance side, we have a customer base that will consume a 15 to 16 MMT western Canadian canola crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

We'll right now with. Huge soy crop in the USA! Cough cough, it's a long way to the bin!
I can get for my beans just under 10 now for fall delivery locally shipped by rail to Vancouver!
I like Charlie feel this years crop is not 2013!
Sask and Manitoba have flood issues and thin stands! My guess 10 is the number! Under and the shit is not worth growing! High cost to grow and then get paid piss all for it doesn't make sence! My margarine is same or going up like all products from it!
Basically the fricking world is not any time soon running out if food that was all BS! Like everything connected with ag! Fert seed chem shortage is all BS!