canadian canola

[charliep]

There is never a mention of price in these postings but I note narrowing of basis as an indicator of the challenges of getting canola from bins to the elevator. A bit will be current low prices, uncertainty about 2014 production and finally perhaps questions about the size of the 2013 crop.

Your bigger challenges from a price side are what is going on south of us. Still uncertainty in the US crop given August is the main month determining US soybean yields. US soybean yields potentially over 45 bu/acre. Corn could be 170 ish. Watch the next USDA report which will be survey based.

A consulting group ARD uses sees potential for US soybean futures to be under $10/bu this fall and under $9/bu this spring if South America gets a good crop.

[T.N.T.]

Sk3 a lot of farmers are just like those stupid sheep,they just keep walking down the line until it's there turn to be slaughtered.As far as carry over there is none,we were all sold out the beginning of march,and thats defiantly a first for this farm and the rest of the neighbours bins are empty to.

[farmaholic]

Grain Companies: HeyZeus Kriest man, take a risk like we do everyday. What's wrong, don't they like unknowns....LOL

[fjlip]

Great comments, even IF farmers are worth millions, the rest of the chain sees us as price takers and manipulate our returns and cost as much as possible. Tough to prove but if it quacks like a duck....

[ado089]

I have 500mt but was sold a long time ago to be picked up next week.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie the bins are empty dah! The lower basis has been taking everything. Crushers are empty! The big yield was a little bit exaggerated! Farmers started with the yield monitor is showing 80 then the grain companies and advisor groups continues the yields and like all good lines added more so monitor that maybe had 55 now is 90!
Bins are empty!

[charliep]

We'll see in another month.

Interesting the US is doing their own rejigging of numbers. It would appear they under estimated the 2013 soybean. That number will become more apparent in August and in their next stocks report.

[charliep]

If you guys are so certain about the carryover, why weren't you selling futures this past winter when July futures gave you a sniff at $500/tonne and making cash sales today when basis levels have narrowed?

[Braveheart]

Charlie, great point. The answer to that question will vary farm to farm.

For our farm, about on par with Freewheats farm size, cash is just not abundant enough to feel comfortable with today's margin requirements. Futures can be more volatile than when we used to hedge with futures in the '90's. Limits can expand quickly and thusly margin calls.

Also, production is riskier with the weather extremes these days.

Forward cash contracts have had to do for now.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie cash sales were done at 500! Gee you think were all stupid farmers don't you! I'm telling you the bins are empty surprise surprise!

[charliep]

John DePape hasn't posted for a while but the whole concept of his program was a combination of using carry in the market and basis signals.

I looked at ACPC price charts and canola cash prices have remained relatively flat for old. The change has been declining futures prices reflected the overall world oilseed situation and stronger basis levels reflecting reduced delivery pressure.

I don't know that I would have done anything differently than what guys have done here. As an education/market skill development thing, I do look back and ask myself what I would have done differently. Not about beating up on myself for decisions but trying to use experience to improve.

[Braveheart]

Also Charlie, the carryover wasn't evident last winter. It is coming to light now though. Bins are swept clean around here.

Basis levels might be an indicator. $10 over, Aug delivery has strengthened to $15 over.