canadian canola

[charliep]

The offense goes the other way as well. The market experts (who ever they are) are not that stupid as well. Most will show their logic in their recommendations and thoughts.

To make things fun, lets make this a bet. I will bet you the canola carryover on are more than 2 MMT.

You willing to take the other side?

[Braveheart]

Who would ever verify? Statscan? Ha! AB Ag? My friend there Nithi G. still working?

If Iost a bet on canola carry out it would put me at a loss on canola this year. That's how tight the canola budget is.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie you miss the point if a lie started last fall we, you every one added to the BS told the whole world we produced so much! I would t pay shit aLl to a Canadian company for product! Then the railways shipped oil and screwed every one!
We have a shit system in the greatest country in the world ! Ha ha!
Point on your bet farmers thiNk all these farm experts that publish reports or stats can are full of shit! Soy paid good all winter did drop off because USA farmer and SA were going to seed wall to wall! Face it the experts blew the yield on 2013 crop! Bins are empty or are all the expert marketers that had big crops fooled us on all their big dollar sales and are sitting on grain in the bin! Bins are empty it's rather simple!

[charliep]

Canola should be an easy number to verify eventually because every kernel is delivered to a CGC licensed facility. The farmer surveyed numbers are production and on farm stocks.

So here is what I know to week 50 from CGC grain statistics weekly.

Deliveries to July 14 - 15 MMT. I suspect this could grow closer to 16 MMT by July 31.

COPA crush to July 31 - 7 MMT.

Exports to week 50 8.5 MMT. Suspect could grow to a record 9 MMT in week 52.

Commercial stocks on July 14 - 840,000 tonnes. That compares to 408,000 tonnes on July 31, 2013.

If you leave commercial stocks at 840,000 week 52 and you assume 500,000 dockage, that leaves July 31 on farm stocks at 1.5 MMT or total canola carryover at 2.3 MMT. If Statistics Canada overestimated 2013, you will see a smaller on farm carryover/big dockage number.

Those are the numbers I am looking at. Canola is relatively straight. Wheat and barley more complex.

[charliep]

SK3

So you are not confident enough in what you say to take the bet? The July 31 stocks report will be the final arbitrator.

[charliep]

Hedgehog

To your original post, I suspect that your buyers are feeding you a bit of crap. After the smoke all clears, Canada has been agressively selling canola to make a 9 MMT export program. A 2.3 MMT carryover (subject to whatever Statistics Canada publishs) is a stocks use ratio of 14 percent or just under 2 months supply. Both our problems revolve around weak world vegetable oil prices and bigger South American/potential US soybean crops.

A bright spot for canola is the high energy prices (which could go higher depending on geo political issues). A comment I have seen is 35 cent per pound soybean oil can work as bio diesel on its own in a world of $100/barrel crude. If I were to pick on wild card today that would make me more optismitic about canola prices, this would be it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Spoilage due to flooding! And yes farmer total on farm will be lower. Then total USA coming across border?
Or will it be manipulated like usda!
Basically this years crop is nice in Alberta and some areas of sask and man! Flooded still looks like shit! It's a lower total than 2013! Now only thing would help if the USA got a frost after our canola has made some thing! Then who knows!

[Braveheart]

Charlie, I was going to ask about the sustainable fuels. So has the crush dedicated to biodiesel dropped in recent years? Crude prices don't seem to be as much of a fundamental in the market (oilseed). Has fracking had an influence?

[charliep]

I don't know the answer to your last question on fracking other than another source of energy and make North America energy self sufficient. New technology means a lot more ability to break carbon moleculars and turn into other products including different types of fuels.

I watch political instability in the world and wonder what will happen. Bio diesel use has decreased a lot in Europe but I watch the situation in Ukraine/Russia and wonder about the impact on their fuel security. Home grown fuels may look better. At the same time, the impact of the geopolitical situation/embargoes may be real pain to an EU economy already struggling. That could reduce fuel demand.

No answers. Just more questions.

I am a SWOT analysis type guy.

What about the things we have no control over (Opportunities and Threats). What are the things we can do within our control (Strengths and Weaknesses).

[farming101]

Charlie, there are additional unlicensed exports to the US this year of 395,961 tonnes to the end of May 2014.
If you take that amount away from your 2.3 million tonne carry out you get about 1.9 million.

[ado089]

There's still gobs of wheat out there but last years canola crop was probably 3-5 bpa short of what they thought it was and this years crop will come in below expectations. I haven't seen many crops with potential over 50 in the really good areas and there several that will struggle to break 20 in the poor areas. My expectation is they will be off the same 3-5 bpa this year too.

[charliep]

farming101

I am light on the exports. A 2 MMT carryover is very realistic before any discussion on 2013 production has occurred. I will leave my number on the plus side of 2but could be wrong.