canadian canola

[farming101]

Charlie, you could be right too!

[westernvicki]

The light green colour of the canola fields this year, is that variety, fertilizer shortages, or disease? Walked in a few fields and my guess is in many areas this is NOT last years crop, but indeed like last year, would LOVE to be surprised on the combine.

Stats numbers have an impact but farmer selling psychology of a lower yielding crop plays a huge factor in value. Ie; a suggested retail of a 40 plus crop is hugely different that suggested retail of an under 40 bushel average.

This year 10$ bids triggered the grower to sell, based on average yields there was money in 10$ canola sales on most farms. It will be interesting to see where the producer trigger is this year, as indeed we should recognize this factor in farm values.

The lemming theory of pricing.

[charliep]

I agree. Count trucks in the line up at the local crushing plant/elevator and you will have a good handle on basis.

My two bits for what they are worth is that $10/bu ($440/tonne) will be a rare and may not happen this fall. Futures will struggle because of the monster US soybean crop. Basis will be better improve this year depending on crop size.

In the areas of Alberta I have toured through, harvest will be pretty much in full swing September 1 plus/minus a bit. Will let conversations/speculation on yields continue here but Alberta at least should be close to an average (not a bin buster like 2013 or a disaster).

To look at the disappearance side, we have a customer base that will consume a 15 to 16 MMT western Canadian canola crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

We'll right now with. Huge soy crop in the USA! Cough cough, it's a long way to the bin!
I can get for my beans just under 10 now for fall delivery locally shipped by rail to Vancouver!
I like Charlie feel this years crop is not 2013!
Sask and Manitoba have flood issues and thin stands! My guess 10 is the number! Under and the shit is not worth growing! High cost to grow and then get paid piss all for it doesn't make sence! My margarine is same or going up like all products from it!
Basically the fricking world is not any time soon running out if food that was all BS! Like everything connected with ag! Fert seed chem shortage is all BS!