Is it time...

[foragefarmer]

Tom
From past postings you come across as such a marketing expert, often lecturing other posters in this regard and mean while you don't even have an active account!!! Yet, here you are asking fellow posters for advice.

I would suggest you do a little research on you own and follow your own advice.

[Braveheart]

Foragefarmer, Tom starts a marketing thread with a valid marketing discussion to follow and you decide to jump on with a cheap attack on him? That was scrubby.

[Braveheart]

Tom, let the trend be your friend. I would side with the bears here. There's a lot wheat, stagnant demand, unstable politics, and Hunter and Claude's toy railroads.

I think the wheat crop in Canada may be big again. The US crop is big. USDA likely underestimated it.

Someone earlier said if you've got some good pricing and a good crop, why at this point subtract from it?

[mbdog]

Replacement strategies are always on the table. IMO, planned/mixed economies will trump markets' direction. Simply can't trust info so look into one's own situation. Flipped some old canola to paper the other day on account of storage issues/good basis. Will hold long paper till this harvest shakes out. Too much-too late.
My thinking is "The managers" will lift one commodity, send one sideways, and kill another over next 6 months for various reasons, the least of which are real fundamentals. So I think going long is a crap shoot. If your short a deferred contract, enough uncertainty that long paper probably not a bad hedge, but its just my opinion.
Boils down to dominant macroeconomic management/manipulation...nothing more. Never had a major drought so we got something so the games continue. Good luck to all marketers and their choices.

[TOM4CWB]

MBDog,

I am in your camp... If frost comes even Sept 1... there will be a spike up as many crops are late.

Thanks Braveheart... you understand risk management like I do... learned in the school of hard knocks and years of seeing others do better by keeping marketing simple.

Foragefarmer... If you believe a farmer must use a trading account to be a decent risk manager... every year... then I would question how much is being wasted on commissions and options premiums.

A number of marketers we sell grain to offer options in the marketing package we growers can use.

Why leave a bunch of money sitting in a trading account... if better use is made in other places?

Straight hedges are often a really good strategy... even if they don't wring every last cent out of the sale... they get sales on the books and can lead to good deals in other farm business. If our farm can make a decent profit... at less risk exposure... with less management time required ...

Then trading futures and options are NOT required to be a good risk manager... every single year.

How often do you trade a futures account to do actual hedges for farm produce you grow... forage farmer?

If I can trade the actual crop input or grain... at reasonable profitable prices... why not???

[foragefarmer]

Tom

When making money on trades who cares about commissions, that's the price of doing business. Tom were you unaware that this is how the business world functions, people get paid for providing a services.

Tom do you run your farm as a business or is it just a hobby farm? Because if your concerned about paying commissions you probably should just close that account you just opened and leave your money in your saving account where it can continue to receive .0025% interest.

God Bless, Cheers, have great day, and all those other closing remarks of yours!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Forage,

So what is the trade? Has Canola hit the bottom?

How much have you sold of your 2014 production? Are you buying any back if you did sell?

Thanks for your help! Grin!!!

[foragefarmer]

Tom

Why commodities? Buy CNR and CP there's where the money can be made.

Your welcome

[mbdog]

Forage...thanks for derailing this important thread. If you cannot come to terms with, and try help those of us that are trying to figure out different marketing/cashflow/capital strategies, then you should say nothing. As producers, be it in buying or selling anything....the deck is heavily stacked against us. It is wise to listen/read from those who want to learn/discuss...whether we use the strategies or not. Uncalled for criticism of Tom and scrubby to say the least.

[foragefarmer]

Mbdog

The tread was dead long before I joined the conversation. Did Tom or yourself exacute any trades based on the information given. There was no stating that they have been following the charts or giving stock reports, supply and demand figures, wheather reports nothing at all. This is only a chat line not a marketing web site.

MbDog please don't take yourself so serious, and practice what you preach

[TOM4CWB]

Forage;

Your judgement is self defining... some do reflect on opinions placed here for consideration...

Which is what management is actually about.

Thanks for bringing this to our attention.... in a special way!

I did NOT execute a trade... as good and timely advice offered here... was appreciated!

Thanks folks!

Cheers!

[riders2010]

So everytime you guys say 'CHEERS" are you guys having a drink?

[mbdog]

Forage...thread was 100% relevant till you posted your personal attack. Grow up.

[Oliver88]

Forage - Please quit derailing interesting marketing discussions.

[foragefarmer]

tom Mbdog Olive88

I will continue the tread by saying

If I were you three guys I would short Dec wheat this week as it's only going one way. Big crops all over the world. Canadian crop conditions have no bearing on the wheat market. There you go guys I have given you some marketing advice, so now it's up to you to run with it.

I hope all fences are mended as I have given you three a hot tip and you can make a ton of money from it.