Is it time...

[Hopperbin]

Close that trading accou t and sell only what you have. Before you spend or throgh away more money. Go take a vacation.

[mcfarms]

Tom
On Charlies side here way to much wheat on the world and sure the EU has quality issues but unless things come right unglued in the Ukraine the bulk of the trade will go there we may see some increase in sales out the seaway to north Africa and I think Durum will be the shining star in the wheat complex this winter. on the bright side I sold most of the cwrs production on paper months ago and am sitting watching basis levels decline to more reasonable levels. ( yes charlie I did take that chance)

[blackpowder]

My two cents. As a producer, it is a very fine line between hedger and speculator.

[macdon02]

Lol look at a weekly wheat chart and a 60 min and tell me why you would go long? Short it till it proves you wrong. Long in the bin, long in the field, long next year and you want to Texas hedge?

[Hopalong]

Looking ahead to next year and wondering if prices will still encourage all out production.
In local area would not expect much cutback in acres or inputs.
After several years when it was possible to lock in profitable prices, have to consider what to do when they are not available.
Depend on AgriStability?

[foragefarmer]

Tom
From past postings you come across as such a marketing expert, often lecturing other posters in this regard and mean while you don't even have an active account!!! Yet, here you are asking fellow posters for advice.

I would suggest you do a little research on you own and follow your own advice.

[Braveheart]

Foragefarmer, Tom starts a marketing thread with a valid marketing discussion to follow and you decide to jump on with a cheap attack on him? That was scrubby.

[Braveheart]

Tom, let the trend be your friend. I would side with the bears here. There's a lot wheat, stagnant demand, unstable politics, and Hunter and Claude's toy railroads.

I think the wheat crop in Canada may be big again. The US crop is big. USDA likely underestimated it.

Someone earlier said if you've got some good pricing and a good crop, why at this point subtract from it?

[mbdog]

Replacement strategies are always on the table. IMO, planned/mixed economies will trump markets' direction. Simply can't trust info so look into one's own situation. Flipped some old canola to paper the other day on account of storage issues/good basis. Will hold long paper till this harvest shakes out. Too much-too late.
My thinking is "The managers" will lift one commodity, send one sideways, and kill another over next 6 months for various reasons, the least of which are real fundamentals. So I think going long is a crap shoot. If your short a deferred contract, enough uncertainty that long paper probably not a bad hedge, but its just my opinion.
Boils down to dominant macroeconomic management/manipulation...nothing more. Never had a major drought so we got something so the games continue. Good luck to all marketers and their choices.

[TOM4CWB]

MBDog,

I am in your camp... If frost comes even Sept 1... there will be a spike up as many crops are late.

Thanks Braveheart... you understand risk management like I do... learned in the school of hard knocks and years of seeing others do better by keeping marketing simple.

Foragefarmer... If you believe a farmer must use a trading account to be a decent risk manager... every year... then I would question how much is being wasted on commissions and options premiums.

A number of marketers we sell grain to offer options in the marketing package we growers can use.

Why leave a bunch of money sitting in a trading account... if better use is made in other places?

Straight hedges are often a really good strategy... even if they don't wring every last cent out of the sale... they get sales on the books and can lead to good deals in other farm business. If our farm can make a decent profit... at less risk exposure... with less management time required ...

Then trading futures and options are NOT required to be a good risk manager... every single year.

How often do you trade a futures account to do actual hedges for farm produce you grow... forage farmer?

If I can trade the actual crop input or grain... at reasonable profitable prices... why not???