us market analysts seem very bearish grain prices

[monte]

Short term grain prices are not looking too good with harvest pressure and ridiculously bearish experts.

Did anyone see the market to market show video on www.farms.com homepage?

The analysts seem to have a very negative outlook for grain prices after the usda and crop tours.

Is an early frost down there the only thing that can influence a huge record crop or are you not buying record yields on everything like they say?

[samhill]

I think they will have a very large corn crop, and maybe beans, which are still weather dependent.
At the same time, demand for corn is huge, with USA the main supplier. S. America production of corn undetermined as yet.
Prices will likely start low, but use will eat it up.

[samhill]

I would add that I believe the U.S. has almost used up their soy supplies, may have to import.
Their wheat crop is smaller than estimated, and much of winter wheat is feed grade, which will compete with corn.

[Klause]

When grain prices are high.... they only go higher.



When grain prices are low... they only go lower.





Both are lies but both are exactly what the markets trade. Relax bin what you didn't presell and wait 6 months. This show is going to get fun !

[hobbyfrmr]

Klause, agreed.

[bgmb]

Yep I think so Klause.

[charliep]

I would look for things the market/people who analyze it are missing or choosing to ignore. My three are:

The Russia/Ukraine situation. The fighting in the east of Ukraine has not impacted exports from this part of the world has not impacted logistics and if anything, has put more pressure to sell/move wheat early. They are an important part of world wheat trade now so anything that impacts their ability to ship and starting next year, grow crops will impact markets.

China. The are effectively the world oilseed market today. They continue to buy soybeans and canola at unprecidented levels even into the fall. Anything that impacts their buying patterns/decisions will impact the market - political or economic. I highlight the issues over US corn/dried distillers grains.

South American weather and politics. Assumption is a monster crop but it has to be highlighted this crop will not even be seeded October to January. You can add in Argentina export policies and farmers reaction.

None of this stuff makes me bullish or bearish. Just stuff that will impact the market that I would watch. There is other stuff as well.

[Oliver88]

Shaping up to be a year to make use of grain bins.