Ok experts! Frost Tuesday will a 1/2 size crop make a diff.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok experts Charlie where yield doesn't matter and Errol etc.
If we get frost Tuesday were screwed on hrs plus most crops. Some that sprayed Friday will have feed. Others will have jack shit.
Some in Alberta and west Sask. will have nice sprouted crops if the rain continues for a month.
So if Canada is screwed do we make a difference on wheat situation.
Don't tell me time will tell the disaster like this will do just minor damage bs.
Will it have a effect and also frost wouldn't stop at the USA border.

[grassfarmer]

If you have so much water around won't it mitigate the frost risk.
We've had -0.7C, -0.4C recent mornings and its been foggy despite our non-existent precipitation so can't see it will damage much.

[furrowtickler]

Cleared out here late this morning , cool stiif wind straight from the north - the cold air will follow this low pressure system out .

[charliep]

Just curious where you on Agriville I have said yields don't matter. I have done my research to see what you said in words and tone. You can do the same with me. What I have highlighted over time is Canada's share of world markets/trade and our overall importance in pricing.

From there, I have learned over time never to argue with the market. I always try to understand the market at any time using the tools of the trade (fundamental and technical) and from there positioning myself to take advantage of market opportunities. Your best marketing tool this year is likely to be storage. I note your normal pricing activities are focused around the mid to late winter. I suspect this year will be no different although with a smaller crop.

[hedgehog]

coldest august in 100 yrs in uk
minus 2c in ireland last night.

[charliep]

Watch tonights futures. Should be positive for the quality end of wheats but corn is the leader. Lots of feed grains around include lower quality wheat. To highlight again, Ukraine and Russia are very aggressive sellers to get product moved.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok here is what I mean. East Sask. no hrs or barley or oats. Alberta and west Sask. sprouted crap.
Frost will take 90% if it happens.
Marketing we got screwed last year with bs super crop. Marketing in Canada with our useless stats Canada etc.
Their is a lot of bs with how the system is. Now throw in Alberta with preferential shipping last winter to help the railways get their quotas.

Simple question Charlie you have two days till it freezes to come up with a answer. But if it freezes do we make a difference in price of wheat. Pretty hard from a marketing prospective to store crop when were the ones getting froze.
Last years crops are long gone to cover expenses with any sale you could make because of the shipping problems in east sask with useless contracts that no one honored.

[charliep]

Is this a question that would result in a marketing action or a just a discussion point for Agriville? Is it a question about nearby prices or prices next winter?

I will restate what I think I have said to date. Assuming what you say happens, the impact on Alberta will be a lot less than you indicate. Has to happen. The short term will be muted - no reason for anyone to chase the market. I suspect there is some longer term (early 2015) optimism based on higher futures and stronger/narrower basis levels. Your enemy to higher futures is corn and soybeans - they will weigh on the market is things continue on their current course. Storing the quality end of wheat will likely pay but feed wheat (particularly fusarium laced) will be a tough slug.

I will note the market will be final arbitrator. I have an opinion but that doesn't have much impact on prices. Speculators and their belief about the market and commercial business drive what happens day to day.

We will both follow the July 31 stocks report with great interest

[SASKFARMER3]

No I have some unpriced wheat that was left over from last year that didn't have contracts for. Yes I had more than I presold or marketed but only reason it wasn't done earlier is the shit show with grain movement really tough to keep selling when you haven't moved any of the first stuff you sold.
I still don't believe that USA is going to achieve the super crop their are BS they have on its way. SD has problems with SDS and so do a few other states with Soy and All the late corn and cooler temps in USA are not going to give them great yields.
But the BS will continue same as when they were out of Corn a few years ago and still told the world they had corn just to stop prices from going totally nuts.
Their out of Soy now yet no big deal.
Their Wheat was Screwed this year yet no increase in prices why, because Cargill etc. is shipping our High protein grain and probably calling it USA grown to keep the sheets looking great.
The market is manipulated every day it doesn't work. Putin decides to ship wrong and prices change.

[SASKFARMER3]

Their was a time when the market worked and all we learned about marketing worked. But in todays dishonest world where china plays games USA plays Europe plays, ETC the market doesn't work.

[bucket]

I don't know about the rest of the province but in a 20 mile radius peas are flat on the ground. They have been ready for over a week. Now in mud. And will be sprouting.

Won't affect markets. Pea prices will probably go down.

[fjlip]

That's how it went in 2004, we froze and prices went down because the world heard our crop was SHIT quality and nobody wanted to buy frozen crap. Best prices were at harvest, then when it was obviously poor quality, lower all winter. So a frost would reduce prices due poor quality, lack of demand, is my guess!

[Oliver88]

If I remember correctly, the morning of August 20, 2004 it froze for 4 hours and hit a low of -4C.


Is anyone seeing a forecast anywhere near that?! I sure hope not......what is Lerner saying??

[agchat]

In the southeast corner of Sask, we just had another two plus inches. I would say fat chance of a frost here, air is to heavy for frost. But then some old timers say it takes a frost to clear thinks up. Who will be right, fact or fiction?

[malleefarmer]

have to disagree the world wheat market is no longer usa centric if usa crops comes in less than expected will cause a ripple in the markets not a tsnami

has to be a black swan event in usa nowadays for market to take notice and its a big big place same as western Canada, like I think Kansas alone produces almost as much as Australia exports in a normal year.

In saying all that aussie crop is getting smaller maybe Canadian crop is getting smaller maybe usa crop is getting smaller and china isn't pretty those factors combined may cause a movement northwards.

Shoot me down in flames id rather harvest a average crop or better with average price say $250 on farm than drought reduced yields and drought premium prices sometimes margin is the same

sorry sask3