pricing strategy on hrs.

[farmaholic]

Even by putting a floor price under your wheat, which by the way I think was a good idea, you still have them holding the hammer if and when you deliver something better. And that sucks, you still have given them too much power, what if you don't like how big the carrot is compared to what's happening around you? They say they can't write the premiums in but why should you risk it? As long as they can pass the risk on to you they will.... sincerely, best of luck.

Once the contract is signed you're theirs....

[mbdog]

Farmaholc....you nailed it.
Klause...looks like you got nothing except a commitment to give to them. Still not sure how you extract a premium from a promise, but whatever. Don't think you're wrong on premiums...but show me the money.
Wakopa...sincerely wish you good luck on the hedge?
IMO....if there is a real problem with fundamental wheat....paper gets pounded first. Time will tell if who wants/needs to be long is long enough.
My 2 cents...

[Klause]

As far as I'm concerned the premiums work the same as the market. You can kinda predict them and plan for it… nothing is certain.

However we need to market this crop and spreads can change any time.

We have old crop #2 HRSW in the bin that we can use to fill the #3 contract, so a guaranteed premium over base grade… How much, is speculation, but I'm willing to bet that 1 buck figure will be darn close come Sept 15th…

I may be completely wrong… that's just our thinking here… and since this is a marketing forum I thought I'd post it.

[mbdog]

Klause...I agree with thinking...going to be interesting marketing year. Fundamentals of feed market not looking good...was just questioning because need/want to market my limited quality wheat wisely.

[Klause]

I can say now because contract hit.

5 bucks for a #3 12.0


From sample we took in looks like 14.2 protein. Spreads for that at the moment are 50 cents so 5.50.

Also looks like a #2 so that makes 5.90

Very close to our 6 buck average we want.


Is it risky? Yes.

Only doing 10% of yield. At 30% sold now. Not moving more till new year.