Nov canola

[mbdog]

Crop is late...half canola at frost/quality/production risk. Not sure but think/want production hedge from market for deferred contracts. Ride it out and hope to get out of contract/fulfill contract obligation or buy nov futures? Buy calls? Jan or March?
This is the situation...thoughts?

[SASKFARMER3]

I have a Dec Contract and am worried. Its the middle of Sept and were going to lose another week.
Down Down Down it goes. Market works my ass.

[BreadWinner]

"get out of contract" thats a good one! Unless there is zero production on your farm you can forget getting out in a rising market. Basis will get way better as we ride this crop into a long cool fall. Futures may not change all that much with a big been crop right next door. Although if it freezes a couple hundred mile south of the 49 buckle your seat belts.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree frost will take out late beans and. Corn in their mega crop bull shit!

[fjlip]

Almighty "MOTHER" could move the markets by herself, bears be damned.

[groundspeed]

Picked up november future in june when it flooded, slid down ever since. Will it go up if it freezes? I wouldn't hold my breath, broker says its all about beans,they got to freeze first.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX14"]November Canola[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ14">December Soyoil</a>

My two bits are I wouldn't look for much action in canola this fall. Winter could be something different but will be a basis play - not futures.

[charliep]

<a "href=http://copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYSept32014.pdf">COPA board crush margin</a>

[charliep]

[URL="http://copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYSept32014.pdf"][/URL]

[charliep]

[URL="http://copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYSept32014.pdf"]COPA[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

So Charlie frost just stops at the USA border I guess! Read late corn and beans wtf! The USA is full of shit with big late crop!
Bins empty in canada late harvest in canola country Australia getting f $&ked every day !
Oh yea the market knows!
In reality it's going to f$&k Canadians out of good canola to pay fall bills that's a fact jack!

[charliep]

The market will be the final arbitrator. I suspect you will delay remaining pricing until your usual time in March/April for crop you have in the bin.

I am curious where you are getting information the US soybean/corn crop is late? Not showing up in the USDA weekly crop progress reports. Will post the link tomorrow.

[furrowtickler]

Only North Dakota is somewhat late and that don't mean squat

[SASKFARMER3]

Min SD Kansas beans rain delays! It's a wonderful crop!
Charlie I wish it was in the bin haven't done any thing it's called wet flooded rain last week oh it didn't make the news in Alberta I guess all is just peachy in canada !

[charliep]

To the question that started this thread, would you get long canola today?