Canola dropping into the 380. ..

[ado089]

If we weren't such a bunch of dummies we would book the cheapest stuff first. So far our cheap shit varieties on hay breaking and light land are top performers across all three systems.

[Richard5]

I agree fully with S3. Now is not the time to do much.

Its unfortunate if others need to move for cash flow however maybe they have extended themselves too much in the past and now it will show up

[ado089]

The market doesn't seem to care that we have snow in some areas and frost in others on top of a thin shitty crop in others and harvest has come to a grinding halt from wall to wall. 10% is alot of money to be made in what's likely to be the next 4 weeks. When would you pull the pin and go short?

[charliep]

It will be a time to have some tools in the tool box. I suspect (could be wrong) that there is a fairly big canola export booked. There will likely be good basis opportunities. At this point not a really big bull on canola (need soybean oil to move higher) but I agree there may be better pricing (read futures) during the winter. It is a time to look at some basic scenarios of what could happen in the months ahead and then incorporate some strategies into your marketing plan.

[farmaholic]

Charlie, is it possible for grain companies to manipulate the futures market by not using it and letting prices fall then use their basis to try to entice producer sales and deliveries? How much volume is required to truly reflect the true value of the commodity? Is it working?

[charliep]

To answer your second question first, I don't know what could be defined as an adequate volume. In my opinion, there is adequate trade on the ICE futures Canada to reflect a true value on my days. There may be days when things get out line but the level of trade will bring them back in line again within a couple of days.

Basis may be a different matter. The comment I have heard is the wide variability of basis between companies over different periods of time on any given day. From the experiences of this past winter, most farmers has learned to shop the market a lot more/company loyalty is less.

I will continue to highlight the challenges around soybean oil prices. I wouldn't have believed soybean oil futures around 32 cents/lb if someone had suggested this summer.

[charliep]

Hopperbin

I didn't see your question. Unlike US, Canada does publish a commitment of traders report.

[URL="http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm"]commitment of traders[/URL]

[charliep]

Oops. Left a word out. Canada does not publish an equivalent of the US report.

[bucket]

Charliep

Canada has no reporting, period.

The US farmers have access to port prices, vessel reports, rail unloads.

Everyone in ag government agencies in Canada should be ashamed of the way the open market was implemented in Canada.

Especially when you consider a system is in place less than 100 miles to the south.

[farmaholic]

My tinfoil hat thinking theory is if they get you to sign basis only/first contracts they don't have to bid it up to get it out of your hands, you're already committed.