Canola dropping into the 380. ..

[Klause]

I could see it happen. Soy are tumbling..


Perhaps a good time to short the market ?

[cottonpicken]

Worst close in the history of our lives.

[Hopperbin]

I see it also. Futures tied unfairly to beans in my opinion. Would like to pull trigger if my canola is ok. That said klause if your short of product to deliver against your contract should be able to find someone to deliver and keep some of that difference. That said shorting is still risky will canola futures begin to properly show the value difference between bean or could the basis jump to plus 40. Bit of a crap shoot. Our stocks should drop because countries buy our canola and dont want to switch correct? I am of the opinion our canola has a lot more value in it than what we are paid for compared to beans.

[Klause]

I agree with you Hopper on all those points.

I can see us getting a high positive basis to get canola moving... However at the same time how high before the net price to the crushers exceeds the value point were beans make sense instead of canola.


What's EU ****seed doing? Anyone care to pull up a chart?

[ado089]

Before this weather went to shit I was going to sell a pile of call options. That way the market has to go against you nearly $20/mt before you need worry. I lost my nerve when I saw the forecast last week.

[Hopperbin]

So put the beans through the crusher and tell the dairy Industry to go elsware for the canola meal. If beans are down we dont neccessarily have to follow. As farmers we may need to see the value before we sell our entire crop by may 2015. Only to watch the fire works. Now I believe charliep could really shine here how tight is it.

[Hopperbin]

Selling them options can make money most of thetime but its the one in twenty reaso. that there are people praying on farmers to bank roll them.

[cottonpicken]

Three days and three percent and frost to worry about to boot quite the week in front of us

[mbratrud]

Perhaps a good time to short the market ?

Really?

IMHO $500 might be too high but $400 is too cheap.

It's Harvest.

[ado089]

I would say an average COP is $300-320. @40bu/ac that's $8 and that's where they'll be.

[cottonpicken]

No point in shorting the bottom,lol.

Its the damn time line that becomes the problem.

And the options trade knows this.

Imo,we need the break by the close on friday.

[farming101]

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/MATIFNov****seed_zps46eb9bc8.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo MATIFNov****seed_zps46eb9bc8.jpg"/></a>
Dont' ask me what happened in July. I don't follow it. Looks like Nov ****seed is content to chop around at these levels. Converts to about 450-460 CAD (I think)

[Klause]

I think we could see a quick drop here… maybe make 30 bucks on the way down, then reverse position and profit on the way up?

Question is timeline… I think we have doldrums on the bottom… 6 months before they move any.



We all want canola to be worth a good sum… but I can't see it happening. sub $3 corn and sub $8 beans can't support $9 canola.

[mbratrud]

playing the bottom 10% of the market is dicey.

short term play? Nov 410 puts for like $7.5 or 405 for $6.

[Hopperbin]

Sounds like have to be quick. If a marketting advisor is convincing enough people to short the market on speculation it should in itself pressurebthe market lower. Problem is I do not believe farmers are selling much as indicated by positive 10 basis at the moment. Our canola should break hard from beans and set itself into a higher level. Its up to farmers to hold at the moment. So you a d your bandwagon do not profit. Sorry is just as I see it. Charlie? What is speculator open interest at the moment? Any insite.