Canola dropping into the 380. ..

[furrowtickler]

Everything always bottoms out before going up - like the temps after a full moon .

[bucket]

Farmaholic

I think in the states they consider it deferred pricing (dp). Most on newagtalk recommend against it.

I am beginning to think the so called open market in Canada was just the conservatives paying back the grainco and railways for their support.

I say that because Ritz and Stewart are pretty silent on the whole shipping mess.

And nothing has been done in regards to having a transparent reporting system that could be implemented tomorrow if they wanted.

[farmaholic]

Basis only might work fine if you can find one you're satisfied with on a year of tight supply but not so good on a year of ample supply, but that's okay, just roll the futures for a fee and buy them some more time.

[farmaholic]

Basis only might work fine if you can find one you're satisfied with on a year of tight supply but not so good on a year of ample supply, but that's okay, just roll the futures for a fee and buy them some more time.

[charliep]

Basis is a signal to attract or discourage delivery.

I remember about 20 years in my time with Growers Marketing Services at UGG.

I remember this day when the canola trader was in my office complaining about the fact he had a tremendous price out in the country (read strong basis) and they still couldn't get grain up the driveway. They had a ships arriving in Vancouver and didn't have supplies in the system to fill the boat. Had a farmer phone about an hour later and wonder why UGG's prices were so good relative to everyone else. Tried to explain without coming out and saying UGG was short canola relative to sales. His last sentence was if you guys are willing to pay this much today, you'll pay more tomorrow.

The elevator system did what it had to do relative to price to fill the boats. About a weak later, the canola trader was in my office with a smile of relief. An hour later the farmer is phoning me to chew me for not telling him the price was going to drop.

One of your strongest tools in marketing canola (not available and more complex with wheat) is your ability to separate delivery commitments from pricing.

[charliep]

bucket

A lot of discussion in both industry and government regarding your points about market information gaps.
At this point, not sure on the outcome.

[bucket]

What I hear from most government people is like charlie brown's teacher use to say "wah, wah, wah......"

It is disappointing to read or hear they can't figure out what is needed when a system is in place south of the border that keeps everyone accountable.

Railways are in front of the STB monthly having to explain what is going on in the states and here in Canada the railways tell the government to **** off. As do the graincos.

[charliep]

You have mandatory price and volume reporting in the US. Could happen in Canada but you are going to have to convince the federal government.

I would also note that some of the information you have been requesting is available today. CGC rain statistics weekly is a wealth of historical information on the volume side.

I also wonder why you want them. Do farmers have a need for information (read numbers) or are you asking for a system that is more coordinated and has processes to measure and monitor grain logistics performance.

[bucket]

Transparency leads to accountability.

[bucket]

So the federal government will issue fines to the railways for being a little short on the "in transit" number?

[mbratrud]

Charlie on your comments about separating price from delivery.

Back in 2012 I was at a CWB meeting about the New World of Marketing. I remember asking a grain trader from the CWB and a line company at the time about their commitment to make the ICE futures work. I did it in a very public way and there was a lot of ummmmm.... At one of those meetings a fellow producer walked up to me like I was an idiot and started telling me we didn't need ICE, we can price our wheat of Minneapolis just fine yadda yadda yadda. I explained my concern that dealing with Forex and not really having a serious delivery threat wasn't going to give us the same Market transparency as Canola.

An opportunity missed IMHO

[charliep]

Canola isn't perfect but at least it is visible.

Would be nice to have a Canadian based wheat futures contract but something has to happen to create volume. Perhaps sadder is the level of feed barley use in western Canada (i.e. risk management by both livestock and growers) and we can't manage to have a functioning barley contract.

I note Dave's comment about trying to manage risk in markets with no underlying futures.

[bucket]

The canadian ag industry is well run by thieves and regulated by well, uhh, the same group.

Ritz and the provincial ag ministers are pretty quiet on the railway file, and not a peep about the pending disaster that is stretching from Calgary to Winnipeg.

How do people that say they represent our interests, be so arrogantly blind and silent????

Its too bad there wasn't an election in the nearby future.

[macdon02]

Only rational explanation on oat market being in bull market and being priced over corn is miller's are taking delivery because they don't want to be caught short again this winter. So if they aren't convinced that rail service is going to be sufficient enough that they can sit back and wait for the big crop and carryover to come to them, what's this foreshadowing? Gonna be a long winter. Tune up the sleds and make the Mexican getaway two, three, four weeks instead of one. This vomi deal might be enough to bottleneck shipments again. Instead of not being able to sell #1 hrs it could be all grades. I'm not convinced anything the system has done to address this issue will get us rail this winter. Those energy prices puking are a double edge sword imo. Hope I'm wrong and recognize quickly so can reown the paper. But technically speaking other then being oversold there is zero reason to buy these markets. Easy to call bottom with no skin in the game. We haven't even had a higher weekly to signal hedge the shit. Jesse Livermore's rules should be looked at in this situation. Never too high to buy and never too low to sell. Pedv should rear it's ugly head again this winter. The cattle herd is down. Feeders should be even higher in a month or so as KS, OK, Texas plants more wheat to graze. The ethanol plants will be churning out ddgs, anyone watch meal volume today? China isn't buying and the US $ is running. I got my eye on 05 lows and until the market turns keep selling imo. As grain farmers we spend way too much time dickering over dockage and screaming we got screwed then spending some tuition and get educated on markets. Being the victim is the easy role. Grain buyers keep selling hope that we at bottom, and the market keeps crashing. Anyone run the difference in revenue on a 3000 acre farm last year from top to bottom of prices? Better wages then fixing tractors or haggling over 1s and 2s. The volatility nowadays would make grandpa puke. Drop a g on a good charting platform with live quotes. Watch try and learn. The jobs we thought were important, mechanical, welding, how to drive a tractor aren't nearly as important as sitting in the office and having "feel" for the market. Don't get me wrong you have to grow bushels. But we need to spend WAY more time in the office. Ah who knows could be limit up Sunday night!

[mbdog]

macdon...your last sentence...good thing you said it. Lots of negativity dialed into markets. Going to be interesting when this thing turns...