improving basis canola.

[Hopperbin]

Ld in yorkton's second half of sept basis went from 0 to plus 5. Still better to price sept that jan. Looks like they need immediate delivery. What does this mean for jan feb mar apr jj.

[Hopperbin]

In fact any other company that I checked has a rising price for that time period. Why are they opposite?

[Klause]

Harvest time they draw locally... crop around yorkton isn't great and very late.

[charliep]

Sometimes it doesn't pay to overthink things. The basis tells you they want immediate delivery of canola. They have a crush program and are improving basis to keep canola moving up the driveway. Given where production might be, I suspect there will be other good basis opportunities through the winter but a bird in the hand is sometimes worth more than two in the bush.

Do you have canola you want moved this fall to save storage space, generate cash flow or reduce storage risk? If you are still bullish prices, are you prepared to look at a replacement strategy?

[charliep]

I will add this price is likely delivered plant. A frustration to me is when I hear of someone delivering to an elevator and then having that elevator turn around, load a "B" train and deliver the canola (at full elevation and trucking costs) to the crusher.

[charliep]

Not related to your comments on basis but an interesting article about capturing carry by selling forward futures months.

[URL="http://www.agweb.com/article/holding_unpriced_crops_is_risky_strategy_NAA_Ed_Cl ark/?smartid=&spMailingID=46988127&spUserID=OTAyODI0Nz Y5OTMS1&spJobID=522010194&spReportId=NTIyMDEwMTk0S 0"]storing grain[/URL]

[jdepape]

- Expecting a large carry-out, good business was booked for Aug/Sep.
- Then along came the OIC and heavy rail shipping - in July/Aug/Sep - when shipping usually tapers off.
- Stocks are not building with fresh deliveries which we would expect this time of year.
- Late harvest.

Canola stocks not as plentiful in mid-Sept as some thought they would be.

[TOM4CWB]

John
Our local folks were on the short supply side as well.

It sure looks like the vast bulk of carry over the crop year end was committed.

Now that should be a reported stocks category on carry over old crop grains!
StatsCan doesn't even ask that question!

Cheers

[jdepape]

That's why we need export sales commitment reporting as sales are made (not just when they are shipped). I like your idea too - what's on the farm but sold.
Excellent idea.