Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[furrowtickler]

I know western Canadian canola means nothing on the world stage but at what time does the supply of good canola get thinned out at the local crusher level, Jan - Feb?
This canola crop will be minimum 25-30% smaller than last year and 20% of it just got froze hard this past week . Once the rest of old crop gets pushed through and real new supply numbers are realized the crushers will have to buy again IMO and seperate canola from fukin Soyabeans sooner or later

[SASKFARMER3]

The three by us have been phoning looking for anything! Ah it might be sooner than we think!
Simply giving a crop everything hoping to get 60 plus every year in canada is a pipe dream! Unless your with Trudeau! Then everything is a blurr
I agree it's 32% less than last year and the crushers know it! Just shhhhghggg they don't want to let us know they do!

[Klause]

Upside will be right at harvest... Panic from low yields.

It's interesting to hear what the yield value for districts is from grain merchants vs. reality on the ground.

Will we grow 38 bu average here? No.

More like 20-25.


Then again, a lot of guys are in a world of hurt because marketing skills are illusive... It wasn't hard to lock in 11 buck a bu canola off the combine for this fall...

Snooze you loose.

[Braveheart]

Local canola basis is strengthening, indicating near term demand.

With a predicted massive bean crop in the US, I don't see anything but down for futures.

Maybe a blip upwards will come when funds exit their short positions but that's the only upside possibility I see.

[charliep]

What crops have the grain companies prioritized for fall/early winter movement? What does their sales program look like?

China continues to buy soybeans like a drunk in liquor store with a credit card. Today, lots of chatter that they may slow their purchases. Lots of chatter about south America as well.

I have the pessimist, optimist and realist quote on my wall. How do you plan to reset your sails (almost typed in sales)?

[SASKFARMER3]

CSnola down soy up yea the market knows jack shit

[charliep]

The market may know Jack shit but it is always right. Are you a sell today? Your normal market plan is to sell during the late winter. Are you changing this business practice? If you going to bin canola, what is market plan?

[Braveheart]

Our plan starts with finishing harvest to see what our inventory is like both volume and quality. Once we see our final yields and know our cost per bushel we'll look forward.

Wheat is the toughest to get a handle on. Glad we reduced our acres on wheat this year. We'll have to see how our quality stacks up against the rest of available supplies.

With canola we'll likely hunt basis deals and reward any futures rallies with sales. There are enough crushing plants within a couple of hours drive from our gate to keep things somewhat competitive. That said, there is a lot of canola here. Lots of acres, and good yields to go with them.

We had cash flow to Jan/Feb covered with pre seeding sales. We also added more storage this year and will use that to hold grain and hold it in condition until we see some opportunities (hopefully).

[SASKFARMER3]

No I have my plan! But when little piss ants in big offices develop computer programs that play the market it don't work ! Watch as the years go by bull shit data moves on a whim that a crop will be grown next summer but z frost that's taking northern USA corn and beans has no effect the market knows jack shit!

[charliep]

Off topic but just curious if most farmers look at carry in the futures and utilizing to get paid storage.

To put context on, November canola futures closed at $411/tonne today. March is at $422. $11 carry. Todays basis for October delivery $20/tonne. You think with todays best guess on S&D, basis will be zero by February.

Not suggesting you do today but wondering if you look at ideas like this in your market planning?

[farmaholic]

Whats wrong with the terminal specials they're offering now....LOL

[farmaholic]

Local terminal supposedly needs canola for a train, needs to be in by Saturday..... $9.00 or deliver and price later. That's right, give it to them now and see what shakes out later.

I wish every grain producer had the financial strenght or wasn't backed into a corner and have to accept shit and could tell them to go ****themselves.

[farmaholic]

Oh, forgot to mention, drop the price below 9 for a couple/few days then throw out the special.

[farmaholic]

Oh, forgot to mention, drop the price below 9 for a couple/few days then throw out the special.

[mbdog]

Charles...the market is not always right, it is simply the market. I'll go out on a limb here and say the trade is heavily short in anticipation of farmer selling. Quality and quantity are very much a wild card at this point. While your suggestion...even with you getting a bit snarky...to look at forward selling is valid and capturing the carry is valid, but what is real is the crop is far from the bin. I could give a shit how short the "market " is. I'm in the camp that waiting to be long bin....hopefully....which is the farmer who believes little of what the trade is slingin'.....