Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[errolanderson]

I'm in Charlie's camp on this one. MARKETS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT. Who's wrong are analysts (me included) and farmer expectations.

It's no fluke that canola futures have puked recently. Global veg oil prices are in-the-tank. Malaysia is swimming in palm oil. And no one expected the U.S. to bang off a nearly perfect crop. But they did. . . Now what?

What is bullish is the basis. What isn't bullish are the futures. It isn't the funds who are are responsible for this price demise. They built their positions on both technical and fundamental analysis. But it is also these same funds who have contributed to major price gains for the grower (well above fair cash market value in some instances)over the past two years.

Now the shoe is on the other foot and according to some agrivillers, it's the buyers fault, it's the funds fault. And yes, the market isn't right.

Good grief . . .

[bucket]

I have no plan. I hate 2014 so I am selling where ever I can. Try again in 2015

[furrowtickler]

What's fair market value ? Buy a farm , some land , go buy seed , fert, Tec fees , herbicide , fungicide , bins , trucks, augers , parts inflated 200%, over priced machinery , crop ins , hail ins, life ins to cover all that then tell us the market is over priced . If the rest of the world can do it cheaper then *** it - all ag business in Canada are sucking the fukin life out of us . But I know the market don't care .....
Sorry for the rant but - realy ??? God fukin forebid we make a living doing this while getting ****d

[bucket]

The market is dysfunctional. Soybeans factor into the price of canola but no one mentions the there is a plus 3 dollar basis on them currently.

Anyone want to discuss the price differential on durum.

Same market, same customers but they are buying US durum and paying 3 dollars more.

You would think Canadian discount durum would be in high demand. ?

[farmaholic]

With a kid wanting to farm, I may never truly get the Industries foot off my throat. All modern Ag has become is a host for a bunch of parasites.

Ag, Now More Than Ever...
Ag, **** What Ever....

Well said Furrow... I know guys(labourers) who pipeline whose biggest investment in their vocation is what they are carrying in their lunchbox AND drive company vehicles. That have more disposible income than me. I sometimes think it isn't even the grain prices that are as hard to swallow as the parasites, as you say furrow, sucking the life out of us.

[charliep]

If you go back to your original post, you were enquiring about fall prices. I think basis will stay strong at least until harvest deliveries kick in. Futures will be a tough slug. No problem with storing but pay attention. My two bits.

[farmaholic]

I moved my '13 canola to a crusher in mid August SHORTLY after it was contracted. $10.75 delivered. I know no one who is carrying old crop canola and saw a bunch of ugly fields in my summer travels.

COPA margins are still 75-100$ or doesn't that mean shit. Maybe they're higher when you take the supposed value of canola oil over soy oil.

[Oliver88]

I predict the canola average in Sask will be about 25 this year.

[blackpowder]

The unanswerable question is. For how long will prices fall below COP?

[mbdog]

Errol...I guess we have a difference of opinion on what the "market" is.

[bucket]

Errol and charliep

How is it that the market will pay more for soybeans and durum in the states?

And what happened to that term "arbritrage" that was a popular term just a few years back?

[SASKFARMER3]

The market is ****ed Charlie and Errol Its rather simple. Grain is being bought in the USA not what the markets think it is worth with paper trading by zit heads in offices with computers and spread sheets and program. Its the price plus what ever they need to pay to get product into their plants.
The futures market doesn't work. Manipulation is ongoing but its classed as normal trading.
Keep telling your self the market works. What a joke.

[farming101]

It seems some don't care if Malaysia is swimming in palm oil.
December bean oil up over 5% since Sept 10.
Canola, nothing much happening. Watch for the crush margin to move up.

[errolanderson]

This is the market problem straight ahead . . .

The combined U.S. soy and corn production may combine to exceed 18 billion bu. Total farm storage is estimated at 13 billion bushels.

This suggests a significant amount of product will be forced into the harvest market over the next 2 months.

Somewhere in this oversupply mess stateside will be a cash market bottom.

Then, all eyes will focus on South America.

[bucket]

If that's the case then why have the canola council wanting more production. And why research for better yields to be told Malaysia will dictate price.

Maybe more research on the logic of pricing and it's correlation to cost of production would be in order.