Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[mbdog]

Errol...I guess we have a difference of opinion on what the "market" is.

[bucket]

Errol and charliep

How is it that the market will pay more for soybeans and durum in the states?

And what happened to that term "arbritrage" that was a popular term just a few years back?

[SASKFARMER3]

The market is ****ed Charlie and Errol Its rather simple. Grain is being bought in the USA not what the markets think it is worth with paper trading by zit heads in offices with computers and spread sheets and program. Its the price plus what ever they need to pay to get product into their plants.
The futures market doesn't work. Manipulation is ongoing but its classed as normal trading.
Keep telling your self the market works. What a joke.

[farming101]

It seems some don't care if Malaysia is swimming in palm oil.
December bean oil up over 5% since Sept 10.
Canola, nothing much happening. Watch for the crush margin to move up.

[errolanderson]

This is the market problem straight ahead . . .

The combined U.S. soy and corn production may combine to exceed 18 billion bu. Total farm storage is estimated at 13 billion bushels.

This suggests a significant amount of product will be forced into the harvest market over the next 2 months.

Somewhere in this oversupply mess stateside will be a cash market bottom.

Then, all eyes will focus on South America.

[bucket]

If that's the case then why have the canola council wanting more production. And why research for better yields to be told Malaysia will dictate price.

Maybe more research on the logic of pricing and it's correlation to cost of production would be in order.

[bucket]

My post was directed to farming 10 comments.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, the canola chart seems to be indicating some support at about $410 per tonne on the November. Soyoil futures have also bounced off lows. As I have indicated in the past, my first look every morning is the charts. Lots of challenges ahead. If you are bullish, stay long/bin canola.

[bucket]

There is upside. But I just want to forget 2014 and everything that goes with it. Stupid but it getting sold. Less work and wear and tear.

[mbdog]

Charlie...although I used the words long bin, it was meant as "trying to get crop off the field"....hopefully. And I think most producers are focusing on this challenge right now. Being short physical or off grade cud really bite producers in the ass. Trade still talking/dialing in "estimates", and the marketing/rush-to-sell rhetoric farmers are being fed is getting annoying when so much uncertainty exists.

[bucket]

Charliep

Can you answer the durum price differential?

Or is it easier to say the market is right and arbritrage is out of your vocabulary.

[charliep]

I would agree that I wouldn't be selling any more unharvested crop I was uncomfortable with production or grade. Crop in the bin might be another story if I had need for bin space, cashflow or worried about storage issues (moisture/heating). Offer me $5/tonne over and its gone. If I were bullish, I would use the other tools you have tried to get discussion on in other threads.

Actually I am neither bearish or bullish at this point. Errol and I agree on the challenges to higher prices ahead. Prices have come down a long ways and there are some early signs of bottoming for soybean oil.

From the quote, just trying to be a realist. Patience and planning are likely the two best skills in marketing.