Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[charliep]

Arbitrage is about looking for opportunities and making sales to capture them. Anybody who sees higher prices in the US/sells there to capture them is using arbitrage. If enough farmers do that, prices will come together. Western Canada moved a significant amount of wheat including durum across the border last year. Farmers who took that opportunity put money in their pockets. They can tell you how much and their challenges if any.

[Braveheart]

Charlie, I agree on arbitrage. It doesn't happen on its own, it has to be made to happen.

Basis in ND elevators on wheat has narrowed by 35-40 cents in recent weeks. We all know what futures have done.

The challenges going there are not insurmountable. Anyone can do it. We're waiting to see what ND quality is compared to ours before we take any samples.

[Braveheart]

To be clear, I'm not saying funds are responsible for futures down slide. The trend is their friend and they are following.

Lower highs, lower lows, is down.

It's just that when the funds do exit their short positions there should be little blip upon a down market.

[SASKFARMER3]

Brave heart they have shit quality both spring wheat and barley down their!

[bucket]

Braveheart

You can get grain to the states for free?

And driving past 15 Canadian elevators in the process.

Why don't the buyers come to Canada and buy for less.

Your logic is flawed.

[Braveheart]

Well Bucket, I've never been logical. Just a bad seed.

I'm lucky though. 7 miles from 3 grain terminals in Canada. 12 miles to the closest US elevator.

Nothing is free. US actually does reach into Canada, but not for less. We're loading 2 producer cars (wheat) for a US company next month. Very good price, booked Feb 2014.

[Braveheart]

SK3, I've heard quality in ND is poor. But we'll have to be patient to let everyone figure out exactly what's there and what to do about it.

[bucket]

Braveheart

I did not know your location. Then yes I understand the logic . The option isn't there for further distances.

[Jagfarms]

We needed the bin space so we hauled in 88% of our canola off the combine to our local grain terminal the CWB just purchased.
1/3 that was delivered we sold at a -5$ basis. The price worked out to close to $9.40 a bu.
The other 2/3 delivered we contracted at a -20 basis and can price it any time between now an Jan.

Price will most likely go up after Jan .
We trucked it right off the combine to our terminal. Don't have to worry about the canola getting out of condition. I figure it would cost me about 50 cents a bu to bin it then haul it in later. It freed up quite a bit of airation bins we can use for our durum now.