Canola Headed for $360...

[TOM4CWB]

Hi Charlie....

Looks like a carbon copy of last fall... How far will the price drop?

I see on the 5 year Continuation chart $360 as the low in 2010...

What would stop this from happening....? All the other grains are headed down there... too...

[charliep]

Are you trying to set me up for a beating? I like everyone else look at the wall of red on futures quotes every morning. What i assume to be some level of support gets sliced through like a hot knife through better.

I suspect most here will try to wait this market out. Only time will tell if this is the right strategy. My only recommendation is to review your marketing plan/cash flow needs and don't get backed into a corner of forced sales. Feed grains (including feed wheat) is going to be the most challenging crop to market this year. Canola will get complained about the most but will be the easiest crop and present the best opportunities. It is the most visible market so the easiest to moan and groan about.

Wheat will be interesting as we move from a relatively generic high quality bumper crop in 2103 to a dogs breakfast of grades and proteins. Will be an interesting year.

[TOM4CWB]

Sorry Charlie...

Tough morning no doubt... did not mean it that way.

I am simply being a realist... as are you and Errol.

Big yields in our end of the prairies... not at all like last fall with no stocks to absorb the harvest.

Preplanning... grain movement... which means sales... is key to marketing. We need to sell when folks want to buy our products!!!

[hobbyfrmr]

Charlie, LOL! I just spit coffee all over the place.
It's unfortunate about the canola price, but man, you made me laugh.

[Partners]

Can't be to much canola in the system, Bunge picked up our Oct. canola yesterday, going to Harrowby..they are short of seed there..

[TOM4CWB]

With the Northern US in a freight mess... Western Canada with big carry over stocks... be a realist.

Shortage of canola for a few days... yes...

Combines are rolling... bins are filling up... it is simply a matter of distribution.

Biggest crop in history in the US... we are a fly on the elephants back... in the world of grain volumes!!!

[charliep]

Yes on the tightness. If I could grant one understanding to farmers is better knowledge of the logistic system and flows of grain/oilseeds. It is not a steady stream but something that flows and backsup. From there, an understanding of the tools in the marketing tool box. If you know what you want to accomplish, there are lots of tools/ideas to get the outcome you want.

[errolanderson]

This is a global commodity price problem. Paris milling wheat hit a 4 year low last nite. Veg oil markets are troubled because of the serious slowdown in China.

Gold and crude oil are in-the-tank because of the investor rush toward the U.S. dollar. Europe will be battling deflation for years.

Stock markets are rallying into all-time highs purely because of cheap money sponsored by the Fed. This has also sponsored the extended rally in cattle.

Everything is straining because of this absurded global debt that no politician will touch. The can is now kicked down the road soooo far, it's now kicking us all in the butt.

Lack of fiscal responsibly is the root of this fallout in commodities. Economics always rule and the piper has to be paid.

Good grief if the stock market breaks . . . .

[SASKFARMER3]

Camola in most of western canada isn't a carbon copy of last year I'll be 70000 bushels less and most the same or worse! Best line I gave it everything for 60 and got 40 what went wrong it's Mother Nature!

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree were in a free fall and it will get awfull awfull awfull! Zit heads on computers running the boom into the ground! Brazil is screwed only way with all this food is ww3 Putin or issis or what ever then rebuild! Today's model doesn't work to much manipulation by all!
The markets don't work!

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . markets work, it's our greed that gets in the way

[agstar77]

Strange inputs are not in free fall!

[charliep]

Why would input prices fall? Having said, I would watch nitrogen prices. This is likely a farmers biggest input expense for most crops and the most commodity like.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie why not! The boom is over! Oh stupid farmers have to grow a crop they just have to so the game can continue!
Why spend on a crop to fill the world with more shit no one wants and all the perisites get fed!
FU$& them! Sorry it's all bull shit! Why grow or try for a 60 to loose more money on shit no one wants!
The boom was bull shit and so is this dive! Let the big boys starve! Oh but if we keep telling stupid farmers to over produce we keep the ponzy scheme going!
Watch shortages in Fert seed chem buy buy buy!
Keep the farmer broke the ponzy keeps going and were hooked!

[charliep]

Unless someone has a gun to your head, it is farmers purchase decisons that keep input prices up. I assume farmers find value in the inputs they purchase at the price paid or you won't do it. To be blunt, its hard to negotiate for a lower price when you have a credit card in your hand ready to pay.