B O O M! The sound of Agricultures door closing!

[fjlip]

We have all heard meat consumption DOWN. Fuel it for who? Better have exports to the poor countries, oh wait they can't afford it, need cheap food, no problem Canadian farmers "give" it away below COP!

[blackpowder]

Short term. I predict agriville won't change. Tom will be tom and sf3 will be sf3.
I predict some farmers will have to buy coveralls and get taught how to use a grease guns. Whole farm flips at 100 hrs no longer work. Ratios and cop will eventually mean something. Land prices may wobble but not lose more than 20%. Rents for our area won't change much. Still a mountain of equity in Tom country. I might even be done farming.
Longer term. The number of "farms" will continue to shrink to a size that can survive the long term margin and stability factor for the area.
There will always be optimists and pessimists and they will get the same pine box wether they vacation in Hawaii or the drop in centre.
So yeah, someone will always plant that acre. Tom will always be blessed and SF3 will always have angst. And that's OK.
My give a shit is broken, my shit filter is plugged. I'll keep a close eye on my equity in shit and sell to some Toms son. But it was a good ride.

[fjlip]

That's the word RISK. and proportionately more than others. 40 years ago when I got suckered in, world was going to run out of food. Like that has ever happened. No different today we are simply dangled carrots to keep producing for the rest of the chain and all associated industries to CASH IN!
No do not short change lifestyle or family cut the inputs so others SUFFER. Neighbor was trucking NEW iron to dealerships, quit, as the demand for NEW has stopped. 14 new JD sprayers at every dealer is enough? #1 is drive/fix your stuff, wake up the industry.

[blackpowder]

Braveheart. I agree. New normal implies never again. I knew 'hungry world' was BS. Because the hungry would have to be able to make their own decisions or more importantly have the money. Neither will be the case.

[farmaholic]

You're right Blackpowder. In the end, death is the great equalizer.

I think instead of swinging for the fence every year, trying too hard and missing because of whatever reason, maybe a more conservative approach is needed in tough times and looking at whats coming across the plate. Base hits will keep you in the game too. Home runs are nice but don't see many and grand slams, well, how many of those do you see in a lifetime? Plan accordingly.

Going to fuel the combine and hope to get back out there later this afternoon yet. **** I can't wait to be finished... I either need to be 25 years younger again or retired....LOL

[Digger]

My advice....Quit or adjust your sails. Congratulations SASKFARMER3 you win the "Chronic Bitcher of Ever Award". If someone shit you a golden egg you would find a reason to bitch because it stunk. Have a nice life.

[SASKFARMER3]

Digger answer a simple question do you think the boom is over and does over producing give us anything but hardship! Don't cut down answer! Because I believe it's bull shit to string the next generation that the good times are going on forever and this is a minor blip! Fm history repeats!
Now answer the question you and Tom!

[nashty]

SF3, while I do agree that the amount of positive return has evolved negatively in last few months, have you done anything proactive to mitigate the potential of adverse effects for your operation? When quality and quantity are unknown there are other vehicles to use to manage adverse price risk. Do you use them or spend time spinning your wheels pontificating on this site? Typically eliminating the emotion of the harvest season and minimizing sales until cooler heads prevail allows for clarity IMHO. Keep calm and combine on! If the doors are all closed today, join the crowd and close your bin doors. I'm sure there are worse prices ahead, but also way better ones for those that can eliminate the white noise and panic.

[farmaholic]

1: over production has a negative effect to just about every other business so why should it be good for ours...

2: lying to your children about what they are about choose as a living is absolutely absurd. Tell them the truth, it is rife with challenges. Not nice at times... I agree totally with you about the next generation. My "pipeline" buddy called yesterday, his son(Job Foreman) is working 13 hour days $50/hr for the first 8, $75 for the next 5. Thats $775 per day salary PLUS tax free living allowance(so called sub). WOW Why would I want my kid to farm? I know they have dead spells, break-up and other weather related issues and being away from home for extended periods but WOW. We all have choices.... I made mine....

Hang in there SF3, I know it gets frustrating at times, sometimes too much.

[farmaholic]

Forgot to mention, I think you're either born into this or come into it with a pocket full of money.... otherwise it's a battle I wouldn't even consider fighting. For all the shit and abuse you take...never.

[cottonpicken]

Id have to do a little digging but i know the purchasing power of our grain or near is at record lows. Beans were ten in 75 what else was ever that. We should call gatta because what happened in that market is definatley happening here and those guys aint afraid to swing a big stick at someones head.

[SASKFARMER3]

Nasty it's not about me hell 8 years of flood you think you don't adapt! Really insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting different results!
But my point is bull shit experts keep telling us that the world needs us to produce! I'm saying the experts are wrong! Keep a shortage! That's where the money is! Giving over production is not the answer!
But I feel bad for th new guys who bought their crap!

[charliep]

I always see this reference to world experts. Who are they?

I think I have highlighted that world consumption of most crops have been increasing at 1 to 2 % per year in line with population. Oilseeds somewhat more. The growth is steady regardless of price. Production varies greatly year to year depending on weather in the major producing regions. The other factor is the world's propensity to live with tigher carryovers which means very little difference between too little and too much.

The overall impact is price volatility. My two is the new farm manager has to learn to live with the volitality - i.e. manage risk.

Your other challenge is North America is becoming less important in world markets. We don't have the ability to "create a shortage".

[Mufferaw]

Pork weights have been increasing due to the higher mortalities in dealing with PEDv in the U.S. fewer overall pigs at a heavier weight. Close to 10% fewer hogs but only 2-3% less weight produced.

[furrowtickler]

If North America does not mean much , wtf are all North American grain/oilseed prices absolutely tanking on a huge crop that is not in the bin and huge quality concerns ??? Hmmm
I guess the world can survive off Malaysian Palm oil - *** em - IMO