B O O M! The sound of Agricultures door closing!

[Braveheart]

Charlie, yes we are always approached in the fall for seed. We'll Only book if a strong basis goes with the booking.

My experience is there's no such thing as sold out.

[Braveheart]

Agriculture's door is never closed. Only minds close.

Anyone that built or expanded their business expecting continued high prices/high yields was really over reaching.

That guy that spoke at GrainWorld and said we were in "a new normal" was crazy.

There are a lot of neighbours around me living beyond their means. Maybe that's the "new normal".

Sorry for the ramble. Too much rain.

[Partners]

Some VP yields, along with rock bottom prices..Wonder how many farms will be "Flipping" there whole line of machinery this yr?

[BreadWinner]

Freewheat it's going really slow, combine a day and dry grain for a day. Looks like we're sitting and waiting again today. Hope this weather cycle turns better soon.

[farmaholic]

Once your into a crop for "X" dollars, at what point do you stop spending to protect yield and your investment? Maybe farm saved seed, less fert, cheaper/fewer chems, lower insurance, keep machinery longer, and above all, short change yourself and family with lowering your lifestyle so the rest of the people who are sucking on the Ag tit can continue to enjoy theirs.....

Risky business.....

[fjlip]

We have all heard meat consumption DOWN. Fuel it for who? Better have exports to the poor countries, oh wait they can't afford it, need cheap food, no problem Canadian farmers "give" it away below COP!

[blackpowder]

Short term. I predict agriville won't change. Tom will be tom and sf3 will be sf3.
I predict some farmers will have to buy coveralls and get taught how to use a grease guns. Whole farm flips at 100 hrs no longer work. Ratios and cop will eventually mean something. Land prices may wobble but not lose more than 20%. Rents for our area won't change much. Still a mountain of equity in Tom country. I might even be done farming.
Longer term. The number of "farms" will continue to shrink to a size that can survive the long term margin and stability factor for the area.
There will always be optimists and pessimists and they will get the same pine box wether they vacation in Hawaii or the drop in centre.
So yeah, someone will always plant that acre. Tom will always be blessed and SF3 will always have angst. And that's OK.
My give a shit is broken, my shit filter is plugged. I'll keep a close eye on my equity in shit and sell to some Toms son. But it was a good ride.

[fjlip]

That's the word RISK. and proportionately more than others. 40 years ago when I got suckered in, world was going to run out of food. Like that has ever happened. No different today we are simply dangled carrots to keep producing for the rest of the chain and all associated industries to CASH IN!
No do not short change lifestyle or family cut the inputs so others SUFFER. Neighbor was trucking NEW iron to dealerships, quit, as the demand for NEW has stopped. 14 new JD sprayers at every dealer is enough? #1 is drive/fix your stuff, wake up the industry.

[blackpowder]

Braveheart. I agree. New normal implies never again. I knew 'hungry world' was BS. Because the hungry would have to be able to make their own decisions or more importantly have the money. Neither will be the case.

[farmaholic]

You're right Blackpowder. In the end, death is the great equalizer.

I think instead of swinging for the fence every year, trying too hard and missing because of whatever reason, maybe a more conservative approach is needed in tough times and looking at whats coming across the plate. Base hits will keep you in the game too. Home runs are nice but don't see many and grand slams, well, how many of those do you see in a lifetime? Plan accordingly.

Going to fuel the combine and hope to get back out there later this afternoon yet. **** I can't wait to be finished... I either need to be 25 years younger again or retired....LOL