wheat basis zero or better for nearby and fertilizer

[mcfarms]

Charlie
Wheat basis levels are 0 or better in some cases out a fair ways,
thoughts?
market saying sell now? or is it a signal that the markets have overshot the cash sales prices tot he downside and we are due for a correction ( dead cat bounce)
15 year highs in grains stocks not much upside.

quoted 505 for urea take by october.
are we back to the mexican standoff of a few years back where we just have to say no until they cave c hinese urea coming into new orleans supposedly at low 300's ( us dollars of course)
or do we see a repeat of last year where we cant get product in because of rail issues , they will be bigger than last year once this monster crop south if us gets off.

[boarderbloke]

So,,,selling today gets you $5.3625USD/bus? or $5.3625CDN/bus.
Just trying to define what "0" basis means for everyone.

[charliep]

I'll be a chicken and leave the question of whether or not to sell now to discussion. What I know is slow harvest has elevators (particularly prime points) with low inventory. West coast needs grain. Better basis with the US futures although I am not seeing zero.

I think the better wheat will continue this winter but that will need to be followed.

[tstep]

Lock up the bin until they start paying for it. Don't give it away!!

[charliep]

Someone sent me some information that I will have to look at today. I also have a request to take a closer look at the world supply demand situation for higher end milling wheat. If I mumble, it is because I likely have thought it through.

My response at this point might be to look at your marketing plan. Everyone likes to look at all the basis and futures but maybe in the case of wheat, the better objective is to have realistic price targets (at least at this point). I would also look at what I would sell and what I would store. I hate the words lock the bin but I would be more likely to store the higher grade end of wheats and market lower quality/other crops.

[macdon02]

Sell it or smell it------ bin it to win it. Idk Tend to agree with Charlie. Might be tempted to lock futures around late oct. US $ is gonna be throwing wrenches into alot of ideas. So makes sure you understand where it is located when selling ie futures or basis.