Some one Explain to this Stupid Farmer Why Fertilizer has to go up!

[SASKFARMER3]

Some genius out their who knows the answer to why Fertilizer has to be higher in 2015 than 2014.
Because as a farmer with the prices where they are I am not really gung ho to produce much more than a average to below average crop in 2015.
I don't get why us farmers have to produce more so we get paid less.
Its just idiotic to over produce so people who don't want to pay for our product can make a fortune off us.
Do you think the price of anything in the stores will drop. Is corn products or bread or even margarine going to drop one penny. F%^k No.
But us idiots are being told every day produce produce produce the world needs you so produce more more more.
So how well has that worked for us. Again study history this Bull shit was tried before and it worked. 10 or more years of shit show prices. Then watch the USA and Europe ramp up subsidies again. The chat pages in the USA are abuzz with that most days.
But in Canada its the market and a BS Agra stability that is good for shit.
So back to my point, please some expert explain why I need to pay way more for fert in this market.
Corn crop is big maybe not as big as the experts think but its real good. So if im a USA farmers and planning out my 2015 crop will I plant more corn or Wheat or Soy or what ever. Hm even Three hundred corn at 1.99 only gives me $597 an acre and to get three hundred corn I need a piss pot of Nitrogen. So AH ill put corn in because its nice to harvest but Maybe some more lower or no nitrogen crops like Soy etc.
In Canada I expect Soy to increase because a 33 bus crop in 2014 is $297.00 a acre vs a high nitrogen crop like Canola at 33 x 8 is 264.
Now the only thing in Canada is the pea and Lentil crops were the shits which in our area you wont see any peas in 2014.
So again experts explain why Joe Farmer is going to go Balls to the Wall in 2015 Crop. Please enlighten us!!!!!!!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

With a challenging harvest underway, it’s probably not be a high priority, but now could be the time to lock in prices for some of next year’s nitrogen fertilizer.

Lower crop prices will place an extra emphasis on managing input costs for the 2015 crop, notes Mike Jubinville, president and senior analyst with ProFarmer Canada, in the interview below.

While urea prices have climbed slightly since summer, he says there’s much more upside than downside potential in the market.

“If I were to guess the next $100 move in urea prices, it’s probably higher rather than lower,” he says. “In that context, picking away at what future needs may be seems like a reasonable strategy.”

One of the reasons Jubinville thinks prices could rise is that much of the world’s nitrogen supply originates in areas facing geopolitical tension.

“Whether it’s out of Russia, where we know the economic circumstances the West is imposing with trade restrictions. There may be some questions about product moving out of Black Sea ports,” he notes. “There are also issues in North Africa — Algeria, Libya and such — where a lot of nitrogen is produced as well.”

Closer to home, a plugged transportation system in the U.S. could also contribute to higher prices..

“The Americans are soon going to encounter, if they’re not already in the process of, the transportation-related problems that we had in Western Canada during the past year. This logistical problem may create some difficulties in moving nitrogen from southern areas, say the New Orleans port position, into the consumptive areas in the U.S. Midwest,” says Jubinville. “I think some of that impact will be felt in western Canada as well.”

Considering prices at port, he says offers below $500 per tonne for urea on the Canadian Prairies should probably be seen as an opportunity to buy.

“Once prices in today’s manufacturing environment drop below $450, you’re essentially seeing wholesalers, merchandisers, retailers just trying to move product out the window and not making money anymore,” he notes. “We had reached down toward that breaking point and we’re starting to see some upward movement in price.”

[bucket]

Ukraine nitrogen at origin is 300 a tonne.

But for some reason since canada makes it and has excess to export 500 is a reasonable price.

The only freight to pay is the truck from Belle Plaine or about 15 a tonne.

Just go buy some more KY.

The experts have spoken and we are getting a **** of a deal. And it is right up the sphincter.

[farmaholic]

It was brought up in your post SF3 so I am going to touch on it.(I have a bad habit or derailing/unravelling threads...)

I find it absolutely amazing how we can get wild swings in prices for our products and see little change at the retail level. Someone in between is doing quite well, when green peas can be $15 one year and $8 two years later. It's either middlemen making more or end users making less margin. Pick your commodity...! "They" made it work at the higher prices so why can't they continue to pay those prices?

[hobbyfrmr]

The cheaper the g****s......the sweeter the wine.
It's all about margins. When you pre buy cheap fertilizer, you are protecting next years margin or at least quantifying next years budget.
We are primary producers of a bulk commodity that trades on the world market.

[fjlip]

Same shit for my 40 years, it will never change, we are not valued. Sick of it? Only option is get TFO. I see that Kramer's auction bill is darn near full for NEXT spring/summer.

[farmaholic]

Hobby: $o is fert traded on the world market and we pay allot for the shit produced in my back yard. Are we really receiving fair world value for our produce?

Worst case scenario, captive buyers AND sellers.
Kinda broken for us.

[hobbyfrmr]

Farmaholic I agree the whole industry is upside down and like.bucket says its been that way for generations. So the options are few. Play the margin game or rent out or sell or put the land to hay or expand and be efficient, produce more for less.

[TASFarms]

Pretty sure you can get a container of urea from china for about $450/mt. Pretty sad when they have higher gas prices than us and its on the other side of the world.

[Hamloc]

The price of urea in western canada is based on the price at the port of new orleans plus the freight to get it here. We export about 1 million tonnes of urea out of western canada to the US. What we pay for fertilizer has nothing to do with cost of production or a reasonable margin it is based on how much they think they can make us pay. It is controled by large companies like agrium. I have felt for years that Agrium was screwing us and do not deal with CPS for that reason.

[Klause]

Some days I love Alibaba.

[URL="http://www.alibaba.com/showroom/urea-fertilizer.html"]Urea Fertilizer [/URL]


Isn't it sad that China has a more open and transparent capitalist economy than we do?

[Hamloc]

Right on Klause. It is hard to believe there is more competition in a communist country than in our supposedly democratic society. What about Yara ad CHS talking a 30 billion dollar merger. Two fertilizer giants becoming one will only make it worse.

[Hamloc]

Correction CF industries not CHS brain fart