Cold soaker...cold comfort

[oneoff]

As the rain begins in earnest at this fall morning; my thoughts have turned to the disasterous agricultural situation for many producers.

They haven't gotten breaks from the extremes that Mother Nature is capable of doling ouut....nor from other agricultural suppliers, middle men and end users who all attempt to build in and maximize their margins.

That leaves most dependent on subsidized insurance programs, meager government handouts, off farm incomes and revenues from other sources. And DEBT.

And that last one is maybe the most worrisome and troubling one. No one knows when the pin wll be pulled; nor what the repercussions and costs will be when that house of cards starts to fall down.

After all our leaders are willing to depress our Canadian dollar a further 5%; just to avoid following another countries interest rate hikes by a measly .25 or .5%.

And we may well find out that the interest rates will be ten fold those amounts; and our collective troubles not within the realm of what was supposedly anticipated; let alone planned.

[bucket]

As I look at the forecast, the reality is the papers I signed didn't come with a 10 year weather forecast.

My years prior to 2010 were spent doing rain dances for a well planned rain to eek out a meager crop. Now I no longer have a rain gauge.

But I have larger equipment I get less done with. Debt mostly based on the fact that if you put it in the ground in this part of the world it doesn't drown out. 2010 was a 1 in 100 event but unfortunately it's becoming the norm.

And no matter how good or big you are the harsh reality is that shitty prices are coming to all. Whether you use options, futures etc.

The American farmer will grow a record crop and because of the current downturn in prices they will receive support. To an extent they are promoting low prices thru the time that their support prices are set to guarantee them a payout.

So while the grain companies gladly steal our grain, experts say the markets are always right they should open their eyes and look at all the factors at play that determines prices.

As I have said to a couple of people it will be interesting to see guys that have built half million dollar storage facilities, tell the graincos to **** off when they need to fill a train.

[oneoff]

Oh so true.

Without market dicipline (the ability to say thanks; but no thanks at this particular time) and with any semblance of propects of much more than breaking even ...there is no market power of anyone to forward contract; preprice and confidently produce in this marketplace.

That is without the tools that both rob farmers of controlling their destinies; and yet provide the somewhat guaranteed minimums that keep them semi-optimistic in looking forward to that elusive next bumper crop that disappoints on some end results of production or financial returns.

[mbdog]

I have nearly lost confidence in the futures market representing fundamental S&D. Locking futures first...waiting out a basis opportunity double edged sword. Sign up and what incentive is there for basis to improve? What incentive for market to pay up for grade? Choosing a basis first has become a crap shoot...and the same questions remain. Wait for cash offering/specials to price??..not sure deck isn't stacked against that strategy with basis volatility doing the heavy lifting to limit this, which brings us back to the incentive questions?
Marketing the crop this year likely a combination of things, but feeling ore like a lottery every day

[bucket]

Sadly any options using basis or futures pricing still gives the graincos the upper hand.

They have your grain and their needs are filled , right?

Why bid for more if they have it locked up in one form or another.

[SASKFARMER3]

Some laugh on here when I say the Market is broken. It doesn't work. But are to blind to see what really is happening in Agriculture.
Yes all along I said watch the USA will ramp up their subsidy program to continue the low price scheme that is out their. In a real open market when price for corn is $1.99 a bushel who would spend that kind of money to loose that much money. You simply would cut back on your corn acres, or look to other ways to make money. But no this game has happened over and over on us and know one remembers history.
Canada will do jack shit and we will loose farmers again.

Did get hit yesterday at noon with the rain. Fricking system from south of Swift to Swan in a line about 50 miles wide moving slowly east. Started barley that the Geese finally figured out what was down their. It was ready to go we entered the field went up a half mile and the F$%king Mother F$%ker hit. Home we go and a night off. Some this year are finally getting when I say rain doesn't make grain it screws up land destroys machinery and knocks you down that you almost stop believing in anything. Then it rains again.
So yes this fall I have calmed down because their is jack shit I can do about the Curse that has come our way. Eight years of this mud hole where quarters that were once end to end are now more like a jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces gone.
But you have to adapt or loose everything. So yes you need bigger equipment to pull smaller drills. No 100 ft or even 76 you have Chipped 560Hp tractors pushing 700 to pull 66 ft. You have track units to pull in real mud areas. You then need light swathers to cut when fields are mud you dual them if have to. You have sprayers running 710 metrics that are spraying half full tanks. You don't spray with skinny's because they wont stay up, fats are on year round. You have machines in fall to dry out the ground. No tandem discs because you wont seed next year. Chem fallow fields you definitely better work once or twice or you wont seed in 2015 again. Then harvest well since you have mostly 20 days that are decent to harvest you have three to four of the largest machines out their picking up 36 ft not 45 because the straw you grow and the weight of the header cant make any time harvesting. You have roads that when they freeze solid you cross the ice to get across in the winter.
So basically if you have had 8 awesome fricking years where maybe its just getting a little wet thank your lucky stars because this weather is worse than any drought years. Hell checked back to 1986 the worst of the drought the farm averaged 38 BPA.
So yes you get down but what worries me is this shit show gets worse and my God it will next year Crop insurance will have Piss all for guaranties due to prices set now to Jan. Next year is not a year to get a failure.
Good luck all have a safe harvest because the crop isn't worth some ones life.

[farmaholic]

Bucket. I agree 100%, why commit without knowing what the net end price will be. I think the system is too dysfunctional and manipulated for that to work. You will only get the guys bragging how well they did when everything worked out for them, kinda like an addicted gambler.

The one word that Marketing "Rips"(Reps) use that drives me crazy is "SPECIAL".

[Klause]

That last sentence is the most important thing in this whole thread. Well put SF3.

[cottonpicken]

I agree well said.

[CptnObvious]

It annoys me when I hear Ritz and others about the market 'self-regulating' and 'always being right' as if it was an actual entity with a mind and a conscience. more than that, they treat it as if it were a deity. 'The market' is nothing more than wealthy men, mostly in other places, trying to get wealthier, modified by chance.
Why did the RRs make more money hauling oil south instead of hauling grain east to clear a record harvest? Because they could.
Why did the grain co.s make triple the profits on our grain last year? Because it is now their grain as soon as it hits the pit and they can.
You are very correct to say we need discipline. We must work together or we will forever be at the mercy of 'market forces.'

[chuckChuck]

It has been a difficult year for many. The mental stress is the worst as it is difficult to escape from.

We have seen wet years before but in my 30 some years of farming we have seen more extreme weather events in the last 10 - 15 years than in the previous 30. The insurance industry is well aware of this and has paid out billions in claims.

While many will deny the role that climate change may be having in changing weather patterns the reality is the artic is changing rapidly and the loss of summer ice and increased absorption of the suns energy will speed up the process.

What impact this is having on weather patterns is not cut and dried, but you would have to be living in a cave to think it won't have an impact. The science predicted increased rainfall events and it is happening.

Farmers will adapt as much as possible but after 30-40 inches of rain in the Moosimin area it is difficult to get anything done.

What continues to amaze me is that so many farmers spend so much to grow that extra bushel in a flooded market! Why not adopt a lower cost production system, reduce the supplies and increase net incomes?

It is difficult to grow your way out of depressed prices when the market can't take your product. Farmers are spraying more, fertilizing more, buying expensive equipment and not making any more profit on bigger acreages.

Farmers have become addicted to expensive seed, chemicals and technology some of which has benefits and some of which is unnecessary or a bad investment.

Farmers are so brain washed about zero till they are reluctant to cultivate chronically wet land in order to help dry it out. Zero tillage has many benefits, but if you can't seed your cereal stubble in a wet spell perhaps it is time to pull out the cultivator this fall before next years seeding is delayed by spring runoff.

Farmers will adapt to the reality or perish.

[oneoff]

Just for fun

Why not admit that corn can't be grown for the $1,70's that is currently being offered to North Dakota farmers at their elevators. And be darned if $2.09 Canadian isn't a bargain for barley.

Instead of attempting to produce your own....why couldn't there be a feasable way for purchasers (including other farmers ) to do their part by not growing grain at a loss.....and take "surplus" grain out of the current marketing stream by purchasing at today's firesale prices.


Of course there is the education process needed to convince most farmers that in the longer term they might be better off not giving grain away to current companies and that there could be net benefits to themselves and farmers as a whole by actually taking grain from the marketing stream until grain prices do sigificantly improve.

I think farmers might well chose to suffer low prices forever rather than see another farmer have a chance to make an extra dollar

[Braveheart]

A few points:

As long as I have the freedom to do what I want, I have a better chance of success.

I don't want to be forced to cooperate with anyone, farmers included. Good riddance CWB monopoly.

Zero till continues to work well for us. All our neighbours are working black. Their decision. Their land. Not for long. They keep tillin we'll own them eventually.

[CptnObvious]

Success does not necessarily follow freedom. You have made an assertion, not proved a point or stated a fact. You and people like you have cost western Canadian agriculture billions. You have made me work harder for less money.

[Braveheart]

My assertion becomes my fact. It's not my fault you feel inept. Accept personal responsibility.