Opportunity?

[Braveheart]

I think you swallowed a sour pill.

[farmaholic]

I agree with oneoff that dumping grain because of emergency/poorly planned cashflow needs, tough grain and don't want to deal with it, lack of binspace, new-age mega farms that need huge cashflow at harvest-regardless of anything, gotta get it out of the bags, just simply cheapens the value of the commodity for them and everyone else.

There's carry in the market, if you don't have to "give" it to them, don't.

Our mediocre crop has changed the farms profitability. Since we will likely be losing money on a couple(or maybe more) of crops we grew it now means we need more out of the ones that show potential for profit. Soooo, be damned If I am giving grain with potential to make money away at a price
a "little" over COP. Focus will change from crop by crop profitability to whole farm profitability......

And I've already started barking at my input suppliers about the mediocre crop and prices and their continual tiring threat of input price increases, there's tonnes of room in the choir loft-join the choir. If you're mute they must think you're safisfied.

[oneoff]

Brave..

It has a lot more to do with realism; analysis of the big picture and looking at the situation with more than personal interest at stake.

In fact I have commonly, deliberately taken stances that are not in a person's best interest. That includes sticking up for those even when the mob concensus is overwhelmingly onesided.

No evidence of ingestion of sour pills here lately. Hell Newco even paid up almost two months ago. Nobody else in the 130 odd farmers owed varying amounts (of those partially covered by the CGC bond) has even mentioned that fact. There is a fair bit of the Newco attitude that does not meet with my personal approval...but one must admit that they did pay the principal amount owed to their customers..albiet with a delay and after one had written off the debt as never having a snowball's chance in Hell of recovery.
Maybe everyone else got paid too...but either this site has a very limited readership or no one shares much of value; or its a privacy issue or whatever. You would have thought someone else would have reported on that good news...afterall grain payment defaults are painful and quite damaging. Maybe next time Brave...et al will share a little more next time; and show sympathy for what is known as "there but for the grace of god go I"

Regardless; everyone is still stuck with CGC bonding; the Atradius proposal fell apart; and thogh there is recognition of a dysfunctional payment system there has been no change in bonding system to fully cover those who deliver agricultural goods and then don't receive full payment.

[Braveheart]

Bonding systems are beyond my discussion abilities. I'll leave policy stuff like that to groups like the Wheat Growers or Grain Growers of Canada.

[oneoff]

And that dear readers is exactly what the problem is.

Allowing some possibly arrogant; know it all whom you are willing to put all your faith in, decide the course of action and speak for a minority of a minority.

In such cases you quite probably know that despot personally; they may well be of the same mindset as yourself; and neither organization nor few supporters gives a rats ass about anyone else's opinion that does not neatly fit into their personal beliefs and faith.


But all is well and nothing else needs to be considered. Right!


I'll let you in on a little secret. Those dozens of grower groups and AQPAS etc. are largely made up of guys that pull their pants on one leg at a time....just like all the other persons they feel free to speak for. Nothing special there and its a fact that under their watch; the present situations have all evolved.


Maybe they could someday actively and sincerely ask for some additional help in solving some of the real problems.

Or better yet get rid of all the surplus groups so farmers aren't quite so fractionated and divided so many ways.

[Braveheart]

The present situation that has evolved? The ability to lock in prices on whatever crop, wheat now included, and deliver to whomever, wherever, and whenever you want. The freedom to develop whatever stream of production you want, be it organic, or IP, and have the freedom to do it and realize ALL the returns to your management, and not be required to share those returns with every whining socialist putting on their on their pants both legs at a time.

The present situation, where huge crops worldwide, and economies with staggering debt have caused crop prices to plummet, but left people in denial crying, "the markets wrong, the markets wrong".

The same present situation that provided the opportunity to have locked higher prices for this year, provided the opportunity to use basis specials when they appear? Yet few did.

No, perhaps you mean the present situation where the leftie farmer types throw out huge diatribes with fancy language, that, in the end say nothing, and get themselves so confused that NFU headquarters wants to call them back for retraining.

[oneoff]

Grain checkoffs aren't free, APAS dues come straight from RM tax increases and spending money on increasing production when there are already burdensome surpluses would seem to be folly.

The effect of those supported grower groups on such issues as rail company policy and government regulation kind of puts things in perspective.

Largely wasted money????

[charliep]

Strange where conversations end when we started with a question whether to consider selling canola in the spot market - not a forward contract. The buyer was contacting farmers. We still don't know if they were offering a premium for immediate delivery or just doing a fishing trip to establish contacts. We don't even know the price they were offering. If it were me and I wanted to sell, I would call. If I had already pre-sold as much as I want or felt the market was under valued, I wouldn't waste the phone call.

[bucket]

None of the groups have dedicated people like the railways to lobby government.

when the railways are lobbying the policy analyst in the ag ministry in Ottawa, you know someone is getting paid off when the ag minister does nothing about the problems in western canada.

When the auto sector made too many cars with too many recalls the government bailed them out.

Thankfully we are left to our own demise. You can teach people to stand at a station and put the seats in a car.

Teaching a generation to farm not so. The provincial government has a farm operator course. It would have been easier to keep farmers on the land bringing up the next generation to learn.

Courses train operators not farmers. If you don't understand that statement you are part of the problem. Not the solution.

[Guest]

yea no shit ! let them go short , if we all did it we wouldn't be in this predicament . whats the use selling canola for less than cop just to grow more next year ??? we grew several crops this year that cost 35-40 % of canola inputs and we will make a few bucks on all of them . there are options out there and then you can tell them to shove their high price seed up their ass. hard to believe they have the nerve to raise seed prices in this market ! shows what a disconnect there is .

[oneoff]

I will watch with interest for the next months and years as your opportunities to lock in profits do not materialize.

Add some downgrading due to delayed harvests and likely onset of winter; and I suspect that even the smartest marketers will be dependent on "social" payments and subsidized programs of all kinds.

Thankfully not everyone can/will be like those who pretend they have control over anything thrown their way.

Take away entitlements; inside information; perks; and minor positions of power acquired by apathy and neglect and there may be an additional leadership group slightly more humbled.


While "socialists" deeply trouble some souls; rest assured they will always exist.

And while the alternative prefers to be alone; by definition the socialists will always have more company.

[bucket]

The problem is you can't price and deliver when you want.

I am in the process of bypassing my usual delivery points for wheat. My costs increase when I have to do so.

I have built good relationships with my locals but when they are by non market grains like durum lentils and canola pretty tough to deliver wheat.

Canola is a non market because the vertically integrated companies can buy at any price and make the money on the back end.

The graincos will rather pay storage than take delivery. I am not in the storage game. It doesn't pay enough. Like interest on a GIC it's immaterial as long as I get the principal or the value of the contract I can live with that. Storage won't pay the bills. It's the contract amount I want and planned for.

Heading over to davidson, it sounds not good over there for quality maybe there is an opportunity there to blend good wheat to help out there.