Opportunity?

[Braveheart]

So is this special people are referring to actually a strengthened basis? How else do elevator companies encourage delivery? What other signal would they use? Stop lights? Word of mouth? Permit books with quotas that close in a day?

Farmers that happened to do futures first might do do well when these opportunities arise. Some might need cash flow or bin space and here's an opportunity that is paying them to deliver.

[charliep]

Just curious the price or better yet, the basis they offered you. Strange how this conversation has occurred without anyone asking about price.

My starting point to making this decision. I guess also the question about what sales you need to make this fall to meet cash flow/bin space challenges and the other crops you have available to sell. A final comment what other marketing tools are you willing to use to participate in any rallies that may occur in futures.

[oneoff]

Keep loking at the small ME ME ME picture.

Is that all that will ever matter.

[charliep]

If $8.46 is the price ($375/tonne), the basis is about $20 under. Wouldn't get me overly excited.

[oneoff]

Sure we can all remember the exact bins that spoiled twenty years ago.

The real serious profit money that never seems to materialize often; never comes year after year hoping to just break even, or dealing with producing at a net loss.

Just because you think it is out of your control (or maybe actually largely is) doesn't mean we all shouldn't be actively trying to rectify that core problem.

[farmaholic]

This would be a blanket text to more than just me. Obviously no mention of price in it and obviously they will pay as little as possible to get it.

Any questions, phone them. The number is in the text. Ask them why they're caught short and what the price is. I think what most producers want and what they're willing to pay will be too far apart.

[farmaholic]

Heaven forbid someone is short cashflow and "needs" to help them out. I hope someone lucky enough to need extra bin space can find an alternative to "giving away" their excess production.

I have bin extra bin space this year, a shock to me but Mother Nature took allot this year.

Were they counting our chickens before they hatched and expecting more up the driveway than we "had" to "give" them?

How much worse can it get?

[charliep]

Likely a strange question but would it hurt to have a conversation with the buyer if you in fact do want to move some canola this fall. Nothing wrong with having a firm price in mind but having the buyer aware of your pricing ideas isn't bad either. You don't have to end the conversation with GPO but rather you are in the market to sell if targets are met.

oneoff - Is having a neighbor make a sale a bad thing? They are doing it for own business reasons. I will be called selfish but that is likely a good thing for me next winter. Their canola is gone (crushed or loaded on a boat) so it something I don't have to compete with this winter/next spring. Canola carryover will be tight and that will mean tighter basis levels this winter.

[farmaholic]

Charlie: I'll bet my farm that if I ask what they're paying they will ask me what I am looking for before they give me an answer. Tired of the ****ing game.

[farmaholic]

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q605/yip2/CAB4.gif" border="0" alt=" photo CAB4.gif"/></a>

[farmaholic]

Did they make the sale a week ago?

[charliep]

Don't know what they did but I am going to suggest the grain company/crusher either had hedged using futures or more likely a farmer contract that hasn't been delivered on. If it is a farmer contract, I suspect they will be replacing canola contracts with normal basis levels with stronger/narrower basis in the current cash market.

My point would be to do the basis calculation. From the thread above this one, there are farmers who are binning 13 % canola with some level of discomfort. This may be an opportunity to get this seed moved and deal with storage concerns. The price may not be what is wanted but the canola is gone/no storage issues. You have all the other market tools to allow you to participate in any rally during the winter.

[charliep]

If you are looking at the end user side/when the canola was sold to am export customer, that likely occurred 3 to 6 months ago. The canola that will be delivered will be for a boat loaded late October/early November. There are already boats waiting in Vancouver to be loaded. Harvest is delayed and prices are low which is resulting in space in elevators/logistics need to get crop into the system. Won't comment anymore. All these considerations should be part of your market plan/strategy.

[westernvicki]

Shorts is supply should demand a premium: how much depends upon how short, and the relative difference in the market.

These are temporary shorts and indeed provide a pricing opportunity: be the guy that can deliver to these and make a few extra cents.

How short the elevator is will depend upon how much they pay. Demurrage kicks in after 48 hours and indeed that adds up quickly.

Guys used to ask me what was the best marketing too: I used to say in spring: GRAVEL.. so we can get to your bins.

Just in time premiums are a market to catch a few extra cents, maybe not to set a market trend.

[bucket]

Once again. If Canadian farmers had a transparent reporting system there wouldn't be many surprises other than what mother nature thru at them .

As a joke. Western Vicki are you related to mother nature?