Opportunity?

[Guest]

yea no shit ! let them go short , if we all did it we wouldn't be in this predicament . whats the use selling canola for less than cop just to grow more next year ??? we grew several crops this year that cost 35-40 % of canola inputs and we will make a few bucks on all of them . there are options out there and then you can tell them to shove their high price seed up their ass. hard to believe they have the nerve to raise seed prices in this market ! shows what a disconnect there is .

[oneoff]

I will watch with interest for the next months and years as your opportunities to lock in profits do not materialize.

Add some downgrading due to delayed harvests and likely onset of winter; and I suspect that even the smartest marketers will be dependent on "social" payments and subsidized programs of all kinds.

Thankfully not everyone can/will be like those who pretend they have control over anything thrown their way.

Take away entitlements; inside information; perks; and minor positions of power acquired by apathy and neglect and there may be an additional leadership group slightly more humbled.


While "socialists" deeply trouble some souls; rest assured they will always exist.

And while the alternative prefers to be alone; by definition the socialists will always have more company.

[bucket]

The problem is you can't price and deliver when you want.

I am in the process of bypassing my usual delivery points for wheat. My costs increase when I have to do so.

I have built good relationships with my locals but when they are by non market grains like durum lentils and canola pretty tough to deliver wheat.

Canola is a non market because the vertically integrated companies can buy at any price and make the money on the back end.

The graincos will rather pay storage than take delivery. I am not in the storage game. It doesn't pay enough. Like interest on a GIC it's immaterial as long as I get the principal or the value of the contract I can live with that. Storage won't pay the bills. It's the contract amount I want and planned for.

Heading over to davidson, it sounds not good over there for quality maybe there is an opportunity there to blend good wheat to help out there.

[oneoff]

How many have noticed the total lack of delivery opportunity......unless you have "booked" in a slot months in advance.

That marketing change in the past few years has totally changed the game.

Better not ever get on the shit lists of those few in control of your destiny.

And that fear has bred a whole new class of brown nosers; two faced, apathy injected; defeatist; subserviant farmers.

No that can't be. That has to be wrong considering the average age of farmers.

Maybe its just a case of old brains turning into mush.

[bucket]

I have contracts they won't take. Not taking wheat.

[charliep]

bucket - I understand your point.

oneoff - Help with something. You are a grain company that is dealing with a just in time delivery Japanese crusher That is, your customer has limited storage capacity and they are dealing with you based on your commitment/contract that says you can put a 25,000 tonne boat into their port every two weeks. Just curious how you would set up your logistics system to ensure you can consistently meet your commitment? What are farmers roles as partners (not enemies) in making sure that Japanese crushers day to day needs for consistent supplies of high quality product?

[bucket]

Charliep

Just in time is a flawed economic trial and has to be abandoned.

Especially when you are dealing with railways that don't give a ****. And mother nature running a close second.

Best thing to do is tell the customer to start building storage and buy good quality when they can.

[BFW]

charlie how is the grain company in your scenario any different than a farmer who presells crop and can't deliver? I wonder if the Japanese would give them an act of god clause or is it it simply force majeure? Not sure the individual farmer really has to feel too responsible in this situation.

[farmaholic]

BFW: Don't you have any compassion for your "partners"?

[oneoff]

Charlie...While the present system is failing farmers through little fault of their own (except maybe a "little" excess production) your "just in time system" has evolved as basically a forward contracting of supplies with risks passed on to farmers. That system was sold and/or forced onto farmers over the last decade; not designed by farmers.

Don't follow those rules of the game and as a farmer you only get the occasional chance of delivery when production shortfalls crop up. Otherwise the cash market doesn't even exist unless you take some firesale price that is unlikely to meet anyone's cost of production; let alone a healthy profit.

Just when was the last time anyone in farming planned on say a 27% return on investment. You do know that railways and real businessmen see such a rate as the beginning point of profitability.
Not once in a lifetime; but longterm.

And thanks charlie for bringing us back on track in this thread.
Maybe the first confirmed ebola case in Dallas Texas should get tied in with the real world. Or would you have that real serious problem put somewhere in isolation too.

[Hopperbin]

Do we need to go I termodal? Is everyone treated equally o. Intermodal? Imagine grain getting shippednout of the county priority over wedding dresses shipped in. **** me supposed to get married today and my weding dress is in ****ing china.