Statistics Canada Crop Production Forecast

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/141003/dq141003b-eng.pdf"]October 3[/URL]

Going off memory but no real big changes from the August numbers.

[charliep]

July for those that want to review changes. Lentils is the biggest drop although some of the other pulses (not peas) have also been reduced.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140821/t140821b001-eng.htm"]July[/URL]

[sumdumguy]

Lentil prices are strong, demand also, even for low grades. Gotta love the "Lowly Lentil".

[ColevilleH2S]

I would add that damn near 20% of the Lentils in this area of WCSK are still out in the field. Absolutely unprecedented.

[bucket]

And may never see the market or production reports from farmers.

And yet statscan makes no mention of the fact.

[wmoebis]

Your right Coleville. I couldn't believe the amount of lentils still out, when driving through that area last week.

[SASKFARMER3]

Similar in our area! But it's pwas that guys will take if time allows but since their shit leave for the geese and they will never make it to market! Stats canada wow!

[wmoebis]

How much is feed and sample? You can estimate all you want but if you can't sell or feed it what does it matter?
Every elevator is collecting harvest samples right now so they can make deals with farmers. They know the bus out there the estimated quality why don't we get a report on stats from them. They could even make it by blocks and degrading factors.

[charliep]

This thread is a report about the supply side but I would encourage everyone to watch the demand side. A newsletter I get (LeftField Commodities/Chuck Penner) has been highlighting the demand/consumption side for both yellow peas and red lentils. Weather issues/quality have changed the dynamics around green peas and lentils. Movement of pulses has been very good straight off the combine.

[bucket]

Statscan should survey individual elevators for grade and space and collectively report that back to farmers.

Oh oh better go wrap myself in tinfoil.

[furrowtickler]

I would like to see a quality breakdown of those numbers. "Weather" those numbers are close or not is kinda irrelevant , what % of this crop is of good quality to me is where the bear shits in the woods at this time foreward

[furrowtickler]

I would like to see a quality breakdown of those numbers. "Weather" those numbers are close or not is kinda irrelevant , what % of this crop is of good quality to me is where the bear shits in the woods at this time foreward

[charliep]

Not sure what you guys are asking for over and above what the CGC collects today on the space/volume side. I don't think CGC collects data on quality on deliveries which I guess they could. Statistics Canada isn't involved in collecting this data. If you are suggesting more information from farmers, are you suggesting you would be willing to provide quality information in the Statistics Canada surveies. Many of you dislike the current survey so I not sure you would be happy adding more complexity. Provincial surveys including ARD's have way of surveying for quality profile.

[bucket]

Pretty simple charliep statscan surveys farmers. Phone the elevator and ask them what they have in store.

Same questions. Then correlate that to what they sell it off the coast for.

Right now most elevator price if mpls Dec futures but forget to make the fx conversion. That is a 75 cent a bushel hit. Not to mention the buying it as a feed and magically gets exported as a number 1 cwrs.

No one is monitoring the spreads.

And I doubt the minister of ag has the intelligence to understand any of it.

[charliep]

I guess I'm suggesting volume information is being collected already by CGC and reported in the Grain Statistic Weekly on an aggregated basis by province. I don't know what value an occassion Statistics survey would do. I guess you could put more requirements on keeping track of quality at various stages in the transportation and storage system.