Has wheat found support?

[boarderbloke]

I know it looked they way during the last half of June, and the last half of July, and the last half of August!!!

But what about now, over the last 11 trading days, have we finally found support? Basically all the wheat harvest "news" is in for Northern hemisphere, at least bearish news.

I would think most off the combine fall delivery contracts should be full now that it's Oct.

[URL="http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/MW/C4?anticache=1412347129#"]MGE daily Wheat[/URL]

[bucket]

My September contract I signed in February or before is waiting to be delivered.

[boarderbloke]

Bucket, what do you think about the market finding support? Can't think there's anymore bearish ag news in wheat?
Perhaps bearish Macro economic news?

[charliep]

I suspect there may be some support in futures but I think the improvements will start to show up in basis for the higher grade/protein wheat. A fear I have is using volume as the only measure of transportation/logistic performance will mean there is incentive to blend to a generic wheat in a competitive world market versus segregating better quality for high valued markets. Here at home, a crop with many different grades/proteins creates more challenges for marketing.

[bucket]

My opinion is good wheat is going to find good prices after they get a handle on this year's crop.

But you don't need a futures market for that.

Look at durum prices and later pea prices will go up. Lentils as well. No futures to drive those prices. Or nonsense about the price of oil, ethanol or KY jelly (that's s bullish market in western canada now as well)

Last year's crop was 10 p er cent overstated by farmers that were cushioning their insurance averages. Everyone believed it but the bins are empty. Interesting. Now statscan has to fudge for a year to get it back in line.

Not enough people in the field for checks.

Not a good reporting system in western canada. Farms have agrologists hired and no one pointed out the pending disaster instead they sold them more spray that couldn't help.

Is the bottom there. Not until the big money decides to go fishing. Right now I think they are changing to heavier line to get some big fish.

Basis has narrowed. It's supposed to be an indicator. Winter hauling of wheat is going to need better bait than what is currently offered.

Any lower on wheat and they wipe out a lot of new entrants or guys with new mortgages.

Lots to think about.

Still think if farmers get their shit together they got them by the bag.

[charliep]

When I look at the charts, we are going sideways in channel with support and resistance somewhat defined. The question at least in my mind is how price will break out of this channel - higher or lower. I may agree with your opinion but I would like to see the market make the move to feel more comfortable.

Canola and soybean oil charts are also in a defined channel.

[bucket]

Charts are history.

Today I won't start the combine, not tomorrow either.

Charts can't figure that into how the futu

[bucket]

Shit. I was trying to delete my comments and hit the wrong button.

It's wrong. Ignore my above post. I have to rethink it..

[cottonpicken]

The problem is we blew through our major support lines-like 40 year support lines-think oil at 27 there would be any oil flowing?

But farmers,**** the farmers,those dumb asses will try to grow more.

[cottonpicken]

I live and breath this shit and you can believe it or not i dont care but i ****in nearly made the decision to only grow crops that where not traded because of all the bullshit going on. I ended up not because i wanted exposure to capital market flows.

The markets are like heaven and earth,more than you or i will ever know.

[crusher]

I'm with Charlie. Markets are trading in defined channels and we need a breakout before I get bullish.....or more bearish.

[macdon02]

Minny Dec contract needed to close over $5.45 for upside reversal on weekly. Let the beating resume. Pretty good support around 0, likely won't get there either.