Ebola Second case confirmed in Dallas

[oneoff]

Well if you're counting on wild game; contemplate a little bit about the potential reservoir of infection from that front.

Maybe even that precious pet should have its temperature taken. Remember that a "fruit bat" probably caused the first human case in a 2 year old infant.

Of course not all posters in this forum have mentioned these possibilities that can keep the situation going long after their 100% effective vaccine gets administered to every living mammal that can possibly become infected.

[oneoff]

Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
WHO Ebola Response Team

September 23, 2014DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

Comments open through October 1, 2014

Share:AbstractArticleReferencesComments (9) Background
On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a “public health emergency of international concern.”

Full Text of Background...

Methods
By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa — Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14.

Full Text of Methods...

Results
The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.

Full Text of Results...

Conclusions
These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.

[oneoff]

On November 2/2014...check back and tell us if this disease is still on track.

[oneoff]

GENEVA -- The death rate in the Ebola outbreak has risen to 70 per cent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organization warned Tuesday.

WHO assistant director-general Dr. Bruce Aylward gave the grim figures during a news conference in Geneva. Previously, WHO had estimated the death rate at around 50 per cent.

Aylward said the 70 per cent death rate was "a high mortality disease" in any circumstance and that the UN health agency was still focused on trying to get sick people isolated and provide treatment as early as possible.

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He told reporters that if the world's response to the Ebola crisis isn't stepped up within 60 days, "a lot more people will die" and there will be a huge need to deal with the spiraling numbers of cases.

For the last four weeks, there's been about 1,000 new cases per week -- including suspected, confirmed and probable cases, he said, adding that the UN health agency is aiming to get 70 per cent of cases isolated within two months to reverse the outbreak.

WHO increased its Ebola death toll tally to 4,447 people on Tuesday, nearly all of them in West Africa, from 8,914 cases.

Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia have been hardest hit nations in the current outbreak. Aylward said WHO was very concerned about the continued spread of Ebola in the three countries' capital cities --Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia.

He said the agency was still focused on trying to treat Ebola patients, despite the huge demands on the broken health systems in West Africa.

"It would be horrifically unethical to say that we're just going to isolate people," he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics -- without much treatment -- was a priority.

In Berlin, a UN medical worker infected with Ebola in Liberia died despite "intensive medical procedures." The St. Georg hospital in Leipzig said Tuesday that the 56-year-old man, whose name has not been released, died overnight of the infection.

The man tested positive for Ebola on Oct. 6, prompting Liberia's UN peacekeeping mission to place 41 other staff members under "close medical observation."

He arrived in Leipzig for treatment on Oct. 9. The hospital's chief executive, Dr. Iris Minde, said at the time there was no risk of infection for other people, since he was kept in a secure isolation ward specially equipped with negative pressure rooms that are hermetically sealed.

He was the third Ebola patient to be flown to Germany for treatment. The first man recovered and returned home to Senegal. A Uganda aid worker is still being treated in Frankfurt.



Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ebola-outbreak-who-says-death-rate-has-increased-to-70-per-cent-1.2052499#ixzz3G7wwRhwQ