nice up day

[charliep]

I would not just concentrate on one day but look at the charts. We remain in a sideways to slightly upward pattern. I suspect we are stuck in this pattern for the winter with futures prices losing carry as the nearby futures fall off the board.

My only other comment is that basis levels are highly variable in the US as well. A chart posted I posted in another thread.

[URL="http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/wbc/Buyers/Transportation/Charts/gfallsdnsbasis.pdf"]Great Falls DNS basis[/URL]

[bucket]

Locals have positive basis here on wheat.


But no foreign exchange so it could go plus 30 a tonne to be a true zero basis.

I think there have been some sales made out of Vancouver. Now they have to move it. Why they want to wait til weather sues in December is beyond me.

But wtf no one is monitoring the grain flow anyway.

[mbdog]

Charlie...not evaluating a snap shot. basis has been trending better for RS. My question is when does basis quit going positive and futures respond? Thought futures were just political...basis getting just as bad...maybe worse if its distorting futures. That 150-200$/tonne basis swing is 4-5$ price range while futures drop 2$ish.?? Can/will grainco's premium up if everything gets buried in basis offerings now?

[farmaholic]

So, the market is dysfunctional?

[mbdog]

wheat basis the lead indicator to watch....for what its worth.

[bucket]

Yup. Positive basis but the graincos will end up trying to move a multi grade crop in winter months. They have learned nothing.

Delays delays delays. Excuses.

[mbdog]

Dysfunctional? How can anyone take the futures market seriously with the basis swinging so wildly? Futures seem to be lagging indicator lately....guess that's just the way things are. Long paper wheat?

[charliep]

mbdog

I'll post the MGEX December chart and the weekly. I think the bottom is in on the futures side but have been wrong many times before. Just off the weekly chart, I would next few to see if futures prices push towards $6/bu or move back into the old trading range.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWZ14"]December[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWZ14&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">weekly&l t;/a>

On the basis side, I think they will continue to strenghthen on the quality side. If you have a lower protein or lower grade (bottom end 2/3), basis levels are likely to remain weak.

Will get me yelled at but wheat truly is a crop you will have to shop around this year and be patient with. Prices/delivery opportunities will reflect companies sales programs and timing. Over the past year, there is a great of variability in different companies wheat prices on any given day. I guess you guys liked the old world where there was a price (actually initial payment) but that is world is gone.

The advice remains know what you got in your bins, do your homework to find the opportunities and be patient to get the realistic price you want.

[charliep]

I will add that wheat basis varies greatly in the US. Much different than corn, soybeans and canola with basically one deliverable grade.

[charliep]

Way off the original topic but it is really and truly too bad we don't have a functional ICE futures Canada wheat contract. Basis would be a lot more visible and I suspect predictable. Spread trade with MGEX I think would keep the contracts in line and heavan forbid, create volume for both contracts.

[mbdog]

Charlie...don't pat me on the head. You skirted my point...and accused me of being a board supporter. Your thots on ICE have merit.

[charliep]

Not really aimed. Just frustrated at the overall themes here. It really truly is a year where paying attention and being disciplined will pay. I highlight again there is wide variation between different companies prices for similar wheat grades/proteins on any given day. Likely will get me beat on but knowing your grain company representatives/having a positive professional relationship (no need to be best friends) will be needed to understand their movement requirements better and from their better pricing opportunities.