Qe

[cottonpicken]

Ended today,should be interesting where things go from here.

[Hopperbin]

Nice to see the action in grains today. Another up day tomorrow like today should hopefully mean something.

[rockpile]

Interest rates have to rise, imo. I wonder what the historical long term would show? 1 or 2 % above inflation? The 80's were an aberration due to runaway inflation. Also oil has been falling and will fall further due to supply issues. Will that drag down all commodities? Everyone will take a bite except Apple and movie stars and sports heroes.

[ado089]

I don't think rates be the issue, at least not in the short end but getting credit could become a little harder.

[cottonpicken]

Negative real rates are a must,(below the rate of inflation)

Anything else and the system implodes.

[rockpile]

Cotton, so how long before a loaf of bread costs 1 trillion US dollars? Increase interest rates or not, the USA will be paying off their debt with monopoly money. QE isn't dead. Money will still be printed but will be used to buy something other than long term government bonds. We're hooped. Not me saying this, I've been listening to Ron Paul too much.

[ado089]

Oil has finally slipped. With trillions of QE the only inflation that occurred was in the bond and equity market.

[cottonpicken]

Qe was the bazooka shot to stabilize our banks balance sheets and reduce the interest cost portion of federal government budgets-and continue cheapen finance defict spending.

We all here about the debt and deficits,but those bonds as they "mature" must be rolled over and resold,this turns into the "bid" witch is the markets way of setting interest rates,yield and price of a bond are an inverse measurement of the same thing,you dont have to hold it till maturity.

So of course to see our future we need to understand japan,a 200 point move in their cost of borrowing and 100% of tax revenues goes to debt financing.

Zirp(zero interest rate policy)only works for so long,even at zirp japan is at over 25% tax revenues to debt service costs,i think the fact they are so homogenous has allowed them to get away with it.

Their end game involves the derivatives market and interest rate swaps,when they have to try to finance outside themselves.

So who wants to hold a 30 year 1% yielding yen bond when they achieve their stated inflation goal?

What is it 6 finance ministers in 5 years,one killed himself and one went into a mental institution?

What are the concentric circles and implications surrounding all of this,i dont know.