well chart readers?

[macdon02]

Anyone selling? wonder who will be last one through the tiny exit? Just like the pop up when shorts are stuck when bills are due could we move just as fast in opposite direction?

[Rareearth]

Markets bottomed? Why?
Dry in Australia ?
Dry in Russia winter kill thoughts (hopes)
Dry in usa pacific north west?
Argentina?

Funds exiting short positions
End of QUantive easing, money flow

[farmaholic]

Here's a question for people who understand these thingsI look at charts the odd time but mostly for historical reference)

Just because it looks like we will, or have, broke through resistance or fell through support does it necessarily mean the indicators are right and the market will trade in the direction the indicator says it "should"? Does it move on fundementals or what the indicator says it should based on trader's sentiments? If indicators are always right, there would be no risk, right?

Macdon--this is very elementary and I would like to take a closer look but the three charts you posted the links to could have all basically been the same chart, they kind of look the same. Seems almost everything moves in unison.

[TOM4CWB]

Forage

Your memory is short.

Since the Freedom legislation Dec 2011... Our family farm has been responsible for marketing our own grain.

I can improve. In general very good results.

Cheers!

[bucket]

You are getting movement. Sit an area where a train gets loaded and sits there for another week.

September contracts just delivered two days ago.

[macdon02]

Markets trade on fundamentals, technicals, and seasonals. I used to put way too much emphasis on fundamentals. Google seasonals, there are some free ones out there. Latest moore charts show the bottoming we just had was a seasonal trend in certain years. Look at the commercial and large spec bars in my charts, see a trend? Its the flow of money and where its coming from. It blows my mind how growers will throw money out the window trying to grow more bushels yet stick their head in the sand when it comes to markets. I ve been wrong enough times with margin calls to realize I dont know everything but there are some very good tech indicators that will scream sell the grain stupid. With the volatility(money flow which is good) nowadays, I just dont see how we cant spend time and yes a little $ educating ourselves on how markets work. We got a long ways to go to catch the American farmer, who had no board to sell for him. Talking to some of them they are generations ahead because they had to learn and then they passed that knowledge down to next generation. The shitty part is the board never educated us, only said we do good leave it to us. Well thats over and now we have to figure this out on our own. They keep us poor by keeping us stupid.

[Hopperbin]

Maybe the bounce is about this. Puts some substance behind the chart.

Brazil's Soybeans being Planting at Half the Normal Pace

The Brazilian weather has improved over the past week with more numerous showers falling across central Brazil. The heaviest amounts of rainfall were recorded in the state of Mato Grosso and amounts decreased as you move east into states such as Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. There are more rains in the forecast, so it looks like the planting conditions in most of Brazil will continue to improve.The Brazilian soybean crop is approximately 15-17% planted which is slightly less than half the normal pace of approximately 35%. The most advanced planting pace is in the state of Parana where 30% of the soybeans have been planted followed by Mato Grosso do Sul at about 24%, Mato Grosso 16%, and Goias 8%. Of the major soybeans producing states, Mato Grosso is probably the furthest behind at 16% planted especially in central Mato Grosso where the soybean planting typically surpasses 50% by this date. The third major soybean producing state in Brazil is Rio Grande do Sul and soybean planting in that state is just getting underway.It is going to take several weeks to get all the soybeans planted in Brazil so we can now say that about 40-45% of Brazil's soybeans will be planted outside of the ideal planting window, which in central Brazil is generally considered between October 1st and October 20th. In southern Brazil, the planting window extends longer into November and most of the soybeans in southern Brazil can still be probably planted in a normal time frame.Just because soybeans are planted later than normal in Brazil, that does not preclude a good soybean yield if the weather cooperates for the remainder of the growing season. What it does mean though is that the risk factors are increasing including: more concentrated developmental windows for the crop, being exposed to disease and insect pressures for a longer period of time, more vulnerability to dry weather later in the growing season, and a more concentrated harvest period during the peak of the rainy season.Brazilian farmers generally try to spread out their risks by planting over an extended period of time and by planting soybeans of different maturity lengths. That is not going to be the case this year. Farmers in Brazil are trying to make up for lost time by planting as quickly as possible which means there will be a higher percentage of the crop maturing at the same time. Trying to harvest soybeans in Brazil during the rainy season is always a challenge and it might be even more of a challenge early next year when a large portion of the crop will be ready to harvest at the same time.

[Hopperbin]

Or is this joker correct?


Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite, an Introducing Broker with Straits FinancialSoybean prices and products are soaring upward again today, as the shorts are running for cover and the born again bulls are buyers. March soybean futures for instance, are $.22 higher at $10.43 and acting quite firm. In fact, a close here or higher represents the best the market has been since late August and early September. And from the October 1, low, soybean futures have now rallied more than $1.20 a bushel.But the rally should fail and sooner than later. For today, aggressive and imaginative traders should be buying the $9, March soybean “put” options at $.12 or less. Right this moment, the market is a bit under $.12 which means the trade can be entered into right now. Right now!Of course, trading futures and or options on futures is not for everyone because the risk of losing money is so great. Also keep in mind that my track record regarding trading suggestions here on Inside Futures leaves much to be desired. I cannot list the number of losing trades I have suggested this year. Others are keeping track of my loosing recommendations I am sure. But I am not.Nonetheless, I am suggesting buying the $9 March soybean “put” options at $.11 or less. And as I stated earlier, the trade can be place here and now.A few days ago in my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite I suggested selling December gold futures short and the fill on that trade was $1228.00, give or take a bit. The last for gold as I am typing away furiously is $1223.00. And a close here or lower represents a new, 12 day low, nothing wildly bearish but upsetting enough to lead to lower prices come tomorrow.The gold market should drop sharply later today and into Friday, after the Fed makes its long awaited announcement regarding monetary policy around 1 p.m Chicago time. That is but a few hours away. The news from the Fed will likely weigh heavy on gold and it would not surprise me one bit to have it impact in a negative way the soy bean market as well.The time is 10:20

[Hopperbin]

You going to run out and buy them klause? Only 11 cents per bushel. Even if it never in the money your still to the good on your canola. Cheap cheap

[cottonpicken]

He is a joker,if he had any clue he would have noticed the sell off in the usdx....and mentioned it,the move against gold and the dollar is COMPLETELY counter intuitive.

And the simple fact the market hangs on every word the fomc makes shows how absolutely ****ed we are.

[Klause]

Tgat guy is a wing nut.
I went long canola yesterday.

[Klause]

Markets bottomed? Why?
Dry in Australia ?
Dry in Russia winter kill thoughts (hopes)
Dry in usa pacific north west?
Argentina?

Funds exiting short positions
End of QUantive easing, money flow

[farming101]

Texas hedge?