Japan

[cottonpicken]

Just went full retard,stocks limit up,yen crashing,full monetization of the debt market.

[cottonpicken]

This could turn into a pivotal moment in world history.

The 3rd largest economy in the world on the door step of a sovereign bond default.

Hell of a big domino.

[furrowtickler]

Maybe pick up phone and sell and 2-14 crop asap?

[cottonpicken]

Tough call on how it will fall on us,if it happens,obviously some of it is happening now.

Dollar,dow,nikki,sucking up the new capital being liquidated in the debt market.Depending on the perception of the investors food stuffs could catch a bid,hard to say in the short term.

Errol and i where discussing the vix and after that conversation it dropped 12-15% 3 days in a row,that got my attention as a buy signal,now we have a monstor call option trade put on it,time will tell.

[errolanderson]

Japan could be the 'ignition point' of a global depression.

PS: Canada's economy has entered a recession, but it may take months for gov't data to catch up.

Our GDP in August was -0.1% and that was before the energy sector collapse.

[boarderbloke]

It doesn't look to be flowing into grain commodities this Friday afternoon, too bad.

Maybe they're just taking it completely off the table for the weekend, and it'll find it's way into ag Monday.

[errolanderson]

Bloomberg.com is running a story called
"Japan's Shock and Awe"

Agree with cotton .... What we are now witnessing right now is an amazing global high stakes poker game initiated by Japan's central bank.

[redbull81]

Speaking of the vix, took it for a cool 75% ride in a little over a week around middle of the month via HVU.
Would really be interested in hearing about your option play, what strike & expiry date you use, if you don't mind sharing.
Was thinking about option play also, HVU is only a short term play as there is a lot of decay in price over time with the way it is set up.

[ajl]

The Japanese economy imploding will be bearish for canola. Worthless yen ain't going to buy any canola.

[Hopperbin]

Lots of shit happenning ajl. Hard to predict markets with so many fundamentals. We have falling dollar on account oil gold etc. China has more money that we thought doh. I heard something this morning that usa soybeans can beshipped to europe. Crushed. And meal shipped backed to usa and it can work.

[Hopperbin]

Other than that ajl how much do you spend on cooking oil in a year? An asian might be upwards of 10 times more min. My point is canola oil or any other oil to an asian has a particular taste. They dont change oils in my opinion from what I have seen. Some maybe. But dont want to.

[cottonpicken]

I dont trade the vix just follow it as a market indicator,had read a bunch of options had been bought.

If my math is right a quadrillion yen of debt is 10 trillon us dollars. As it is liquidated and the boj buys-prints money-instead of it being sold on the market,which it would trigger higher interest rates.

So this new money needs to find a new home.

[cottonpicken]

Total global credit market debt is around the 240 trillion dollar mark,total equity market cap is 70 trillion(not 100% sure on that) and total world gdp is 70 trillion.

There is no way out for some,so the real questions are how does this effect all of us.

A big question to me is the credit default swap market.

There is NO way in hell these insurance contracts could ever be paid-its like a 600 trillion dollar market.

The isda will have to rule no default every time.

So when bond investors come to the realization,their insurance hedges are worthless which in its self is not bad,zero sum game,but how do they view the investment of the bond itself?My guess is they would want a **** of a higher yield,i've never read this discussed anywhere so i'm probably missing something.

A credible rumour i have heard is that as this all unravels the imf is going to step in and do all sorts of crazy shit like freeze the bond market and take even the shortest maturities and extend them out into 30 year,and anchor the currencies to itself ,then use the sdr's(special drawing rights),in some sort of stabilization scheme,who the hell knows at this point.

[farmaholic]

Not me...

But I read with interest.

[malleefarmer]

didn't realize japan was third largest economy in the world presumed top 10 but not 3 its all over the news and business papers here as well

and cotton as usual is on the money one paper over the weekend here says IMF will not let japan lead the world into economic apocolypse