canadian and aussie dollars

[Hopperbin]

Seems the charts dont look good for our dollars.
Looking at the 25 year charts Removing the last half of 08 and into 09 blips Looks pretty scary.
No way we are heading back to 65 cent canadian dollar are we? Well just immagining what effect an 80, 70 cent dollar would have on our grain prices. Trying to grasp how high the us dollar index will go. Looking at the fact the us grain futures have been attempting to rise and showing strength at the same time the usd index is rising. How will a lower dollar affect machinery purchases. These dollar swings are just nuts.

[ajl]

If the US dollar rises then commodity prices go down taking the Can buck with it. The Canadian dollar is only useful for buying Canadian oil which nobody needs right now. Canadian dollar headed lower. The only thing keeping it from being lower right now is wealthy Chinese trying to get out of China and buying Canadian real estate which is providing some demand for dollars. Some of that activity is propping up Canada over inflated farmland market.

[Hopperbin]

Usd index up 8 cents since july. Can dollar to usd down 5 cents same period. Usa also has rich chinese immigrating also so not sure if that flies unless we get the richer ones. Haha. Anyways soy is down a wopping 2 bucks during that period so supply and demand at work. Canola only down 77 cents. For a smaller percentage than soy after taking in the dollar change. So were doing better on canola now compared to soy than we were in july. Didnt factor in oil and meal. Crush margins are supposedly very high on soy yet. But there is a cluster **** in rail movement now as the usa system is essentially plugged up. We are not plugged. Basis levels holding. Farmers holding. Dont see much chatter here. Thought errol or charlie or cotton or anyone help me get a grip on it.

[Hopperbin]

Chinese demand for soy and canola. Brazil later than optimum soy plantings plus dry there plus the fact corn needs planting immediately after the combine is off the field means corn planting will be late meaning some acres may not get planted on top of less yield per acre for corn following the soy. This is the savior other than no meal stocks in usa pre harvest. Am I correct? On top of it is a free falling can dollar. Look at the 25 year currency charts. Shit happens. 12 dollar canola can be just around the corner.

[Hopperbin]

Nov canola shorts have had their asses handed to them last couple weeks. Farmers unable to deliver should nov and jan price not be the same now? Has this ever happened to nov canola before?

[Hopperbin]

Nov finishing last two weeks averaging 16 dollars per ton over jan.

[Hopperbin]

Klause was pretty close.to being a klaussette there.

[mbdog]

Hopper...your guess good as anyone on Can$ impact. Went short Can$ 3 weeks ago when I posed the same questions on AV. The move is constructive towards Canadian exports...that's about all a person can read into it with any degree of confidence. How/when/If it filters into futures and the cash markets is a crap shoot. Think grain marketing is becoming paralyzed...too many volatile moving parts in pricy determination. How much of cash/basis improvements is currency effect. Typically, all but farmers opportunity to capture/use in marketing given the tools/instruments generally used/available to producers....unless you short/long paper, thus adding it to the other haywire "hedgeable" components like basis and futures.
The trade doesn't stop. Heavy commodity stories and declining Can$ dollar adds up to complacent buyers of Canadian.
Currency currently affecting the lead indicator basis in the cash/deferreds DD's....some more than others....futures values need not move. Someday will show up/spun into futures.
Then basis shits the bed...you know how the game is played.
Maybe/thinking basis only in deferreds DD is how to pay the currency drop. Used to think that was sound strategy... still waiting for my 100 basis on RS wheat to hit. Lol.

[mbdog]

Regarding paralysis...Media/spin, politics, currency, basis, futures...all these things human derived components in price discovery. Supply and demand is in there somewhere. What's the effect on industry/producer confidence when futures does not respond? Not complaining, just asking the question. I say paralyzed.

[Hopalong]

Recall a conversation about low $CAD from years back.
It was two US grain farmers versus Dick Dawson, chief of Cargill Canada at that time.
The US farmers thought it gave Canadian farmers an unfair trade advantage.
Dick, who had spent part of his career in Argentina, said that low value currency was not something to wish for.
Said he saw it as an indication of economic weakness and ability or resolve of government to deal with.

[cottonpicken]

My 2 cents is canada has bigger problems then the simple oil and our currency relationship,although it adds insult to injury and as the western worlds currencies are burning people are flocking to the perceived safety and liquidity of the usdx.

I'm quite happy the way food stuffs have held up,nice to be inelastic in this period of time.

Gobs of capital are being liquidated in the bond market,its looking for a home and in a relative terms it wont take much to move us.

Agree with Hop,never understood the "we want a weak currency"-makes no ****ing sense.

[malleefarmer]

Another area identified by the RBA as "a significant source" of risk is a constant one - the still high level of the Australian dollar.

Despite recent falls to around 85.5 US cents, the RBA says the dollar remains "above most estimates of fundamental value" and that a lower currency "would achieve more balanced growth in the economy".

Last week's decision by Japan's central bank to ramp up its stimulus is now a fly in the RBA's ointment in terms of taming the dollar.

The RBA worries that funds from Japan will come to Australia looking for a high yield home and, as a result, "could hold the Australian dollar at a higher level than real economic fundamentals would imply".

Put simply - the RBA says the dollar might appear to be falling, but maybe not as much as it might appear.

[mbdog]

gotta say...you 3 cab turn it up a notch if the question is asked. good opinions/perspectives....right or wrong. Respect that.

[mbdog]

...weak currency spells broader weakness and the means to deal with it. Yes/no?

[sumdumguy]

Mallee, can I invest my money in Australia for high yield? Are you friends with your banker? Do I need an address in Australia?