wheat marketing question

[mbdog]

Charlie..dec and march. Got time on march....suspect trade keeps pressure on Dec basis contracts. Grade/protein committed has plus/minus factors at delivery. Another hope and a prayer there...Poor stuff going first unless plus factors improve. I have full intentions of delivering....wasn't suggesting I wouldn't...just on the wrong side is all and wondering about my options. Thought I'd share cause I suspect/guess a third of western Canada production is involved here.
I neither like/dislike using basis but it can weaken one's position....maybe. Waiting for cash...might have to wait a long time. Again...sound enough marketing option at the time, just on the wrong side of what the trade planned. Coulda/shoulda worked out better if basis wasn't being so abused.
Farmaholic...The trade is brutal and stacked against us. You know that. I'll use any/all means to market given my circumstances....I'm not saying what is going/has gone on in the wheat market is fair/unfair but how long can this basis charade keep going before futures actually do respond? Healthy to discuss all marketing tools in front of us. If futures made the pop they should have, we'd be having a different discussion.

[farmaholic]

MANIPULATION

[tmyrfield]

i think we've ll done it...it hurts but in my experience take the lumps now. Do not roll basis learned this with oats the hard way.

[mbdog]

farmaholic...that is such a harsh word. Somewhat Managed.
Tmy...ya bin there done that too many times. Crazy basis threw a curve at me this time. Lookin like gonna have to take lumps...for now.

[farmaholic]

I wonder how many market analysts/advisors play the futures market? You don't have to farm or produce and sell grain to participate.

[checking]

The law of evaporating returns.

Sit at a table long enough at a casino, and the house will take all your money.

Seven out of ten daily stock market players don't just lose money, they lose all their money.

Works just about the same with grain and what some of you are doing. Completely boggles me, but carry on being players.

[blackpowder]

Sounds like I did the same thing on some new crop wheat last winter. Priced some of that basis though, at the time. $7.00. Said screw it a week ago on the last of it.
One is never too old to relearn the use/no use of basis contracts. On that total of bpa of basis I wash ok.
Also reminded that wheat is an unknown until she hits the pit.
I still think the market signals are working just fine.
And I don't feel that as a producer reowning is much more than speculating.

[mbdog]

Farm...whether they do/don't, I do believe their credibility as analysts is foremost and their advice/interpretations/summations helpful in my decision making.
Chkg...you paint a side of paper trade that is all too real...wading into the "speculative" arena is subjective, inevitable, and full of dangers....probably more so for producers with an emotional attachment. But its legitimate/potential use as a marketing tool should not be discredited. At the very least, understanding how it works can remove some seller anxiety. Could make it worse too lol.

[boarderbloke]

checking, the Bloomberg Channel continually gives price reads on grain commodities,,, if you notice BNN never gives any quotes on grains, ever.

I'll bet there isn't one position taken in grain commodities in Canada, not counting farmers or grain traders. In fact I'll bet there isn't even more than a couple retired farmers that would take a position in grain commodities.

[farmaholic]

boarder, is that because it is too dysfunctional for them?