Crop pricing

[charliep]

Will try to get some discussion going on crop pricing.

The oilseed complex to me is starting to look a little tired in the short term (IMHO). It has been a nice run up. If you need to do some pricing over the next 3 months, I would be in the mood to pull the trigger on the volume you want to get moved.

Lots of discussion on Grain Orders but can be used for short time periods to achieve targets. Some companies will give you access to interday pricing which on a day like today (rallies and then drops) can allow you to pick off a better price. Some companies will also stretch on better basis when they know you are a committed seller. Your choice about whether to use. If you don't use GPO contracts and want to sell short term, at least have a firm price in the back of your mind, monitor the market and pull the trigger when your target is achieved.

Others thoughts.

[charliep]

On canola, this is the chart I don't like.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLF15"]January Soyoil[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLF15&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=M">Soyoil monthly</a>

[charliep]

Will also plug in a monthly CBT soybean meal chart. Kinda like the everready bunny. Just keeps going and going. Will leave the comment at that.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZMF15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=M"]monthly soybean meal[/URL]

[hobbyfrmr]

Wait for $9.80/bushel then pull the trigger.

[Hopperbin]

Oh ya. When the price rallied we hit target prices a lot of them. Also the shorts got their panties off and started running around screaming one would think a bear in the tent would be worse But noooo.
Now what the.

[mustardman]

So Charlie not trying to be a smart ass but what wires get tapped to do Durum marketing.

No futures market. No prices reported. Canadian gov has one that is always a week old. Have to phone each grain company and Try to get info, only thingI do is look at US sites to see what prices are being paid. Feel like a mushroom
Any advice

[charliep]

Nothing has changed with durum. In the new world, you can get daily bids from grain companies in a number of different formats. You can follow US prices and sell there recognizing not everyone is close to the border/is prepared to jump the hoops.

The challenge on durum isn't price but rather quality - less than 20 % 1 and 2's. There has been significant amounts of North African business done which could be 3's. Movement will be good.

[bucket]

So charliep, you are admitting that the open market hadn't helped the durum market or lack thereof?

Maybe you could point that out to your masters.

Same shit, different pile.

[charliep]

bucket

You have a price every day you can make a decision on and you have better durum movement.

But I guess you were more comfortable in world of no price/initial payments and a contracting system that involved two decisions a year on the "A" and "B".

[bucket]

And what I have today is a system that expects you to pre price for delivery and if they can't take it as per the contract. the graincos essentially say too ****ing bad.

There is no durum futures market.

My durum marketing was based on the best knowledge I had at the time. And when looking at the grades, I would have never expected durum to run like that. Once again, no durum futures to help with that either.

We have alot of issues to get the open marketing properly in Canada, here are a few.

1. Grade spreads and discount should not be left until delivery, they should be spelled out at contract signing.

2. Actual penalties for none compliance with deliveries. But if the level of service agreements were in place the graincos could extract those costs from the railways as well as coast demmurrage charges instead of farmers.

3. An active canadian futures market would help. The graincos don't use them because they have a heap of TPAs they can execute on any day of the week.

4. Basis levels are bullshit. Take a 5.75usd dec futures off mpls convert to canadian dollars of about 6.50 and add another 45cents for the current basis and no grainco is near 7 bucks cdn for wheat???

Graincos still operate on a quota system for delivery, just a little different but basically the same shit.

And with a government that thinks its ok for railways to pull from the easiest and quickest points to say they met mandated targets, its an insult.

[mustardman]

So then Charlie none of us here in pulse and durum country do any Marketing of our products. We might tell ourselves that to make us Feel Individually Important.
But what we are really doing is Taking a price that is offered. Not what the grain cos are willing to pay but a price that IS OFFERED

[mbdog]

Bucket...I don't grow durum...only listening/watching with interest as to what has happened this season. My question...ever wonder how many times durum price to farmer was held back? Can anyone tell me what their net to farmer high was prior to this year? Don't know if enough volume to establish specific futures instrument... haven't got a clue...but we now have a cash/perhaps market driven history developing which is a good thing.

[charliep]

By a matter of definition, a bid is a price a buyer is willing to pay. An offer is a price a seller is willing to sell for. The reason we are having this conversation is because western Canadian farmers are actively looking at US prices and comparing them to local values. I note that a number of private newsletters have taken recent North African busines and backed off to a western Canadian price.

Did single desk obtain a better price because of Canada's market share/CWB ability to market all durum? You guys can have that discussion of history. Durum is flowing to the market better. Decisions about carryover are a farmers decision/not a single desk one.

MGEX has also tried to open a durum contract but failed - no volume. Too concentrated an industry on the buyer side and no market market to provide the necessary volume.

[bucket]

Charliep

Exactly there is no workable market for Durum.

But some transparency to the players would help.

[bucket]

In North Dakota the durum commission tracks pricing and they report the trend to their members. No such thing in Canada.

Our saskatchewan wheat commission is more set on arguing with ritz's advisors - the wcwga.

BTW everyone, I sold my durum early and made good on my contracts, was happy with the price because I signed the contract. And made adjustments as required because delivering a 3 durum on a 2 contract was going to get expensive.

But there has to be a better way than being a constant price taker. It really is no different than the old way.