Crop pricing

[charliep]

By a matter of definition, a bid is a price a buyer is willing to pay. An offer is a price a seller is willing to sell for. The reason we are having this conversation is because western Canadian farmers are actively looking at US prices and comparing them to local values. I note that a number of private newsletters have taken recent North African busines and backed off to a western Canadian price.

Did single desk obtain a better price because of Canada's market share/CWB ability to market all durum? You guys can have that discussion of history. Durum is flowing to the market better. Decisions about carryover are a farmers decision/not a single desk one.

MGEX has also tried to open a durum contract but failed - no volume. Too concentrated an industry on the buyer side and no market market to provide the necessary volume.

[bucket]

Charliep

Exactly there is no workable market for Durum.

But some transparency to the players would help.

[bucket]

In North Dakota the durum commission tracks pricing and they report the trend to their members. No such thing in Canada.

Our saskatchewan wheat commission is more set on arguing with ritz's advisors - the wcwga.

BTW everyone, I sold my durum early and made good on my contracts, was happy with the price because I signed the contract. And made adjustments as required because delivering a 3 durum on a 2 contract was going to get expensive.

But there has to be a better way than being a constant price taker. It really is no different than the old way.

[mustardman]

mbdog net price of $12 in 2008 or 09 and yes the board took all of it

[charliep]

The southern Alberta 1CWAD 13 protein in 2007/08 was about $12.50/bu. In 2007, western Canada produced about 3.7 MMT of durum. About 3.1 MMT was exported in 2007/08 (year of the big run up in spring wheat prices including durum) with a resulting carryover of 820,000 tonnes.

If you look at the period of 2004/05 to 2013/14, durum carryovers exceeded 2 MMT in 4 of 10 years with one year over 3 MMT.

In 2013/14 (with all the transportation challenges), western Canada exported a record 4.8 MMT tonnes of durum out of a record 6.5 MMT crop resulting in a carryover of 1.8 MMT on July 31, 2014.

[charliep]

Here is good article on durum prices. I went back to my notes from last Friday and actually only 12.3 percent of the 2014 crop has graded 1 or 2 from the CGC harvest. Likely a little higher percent but still under 20.

[URL="http://www.producer.com/2014/11/little-durum-fetching-top-price/"]durum prices[/URL]

[foragefarmer]

Charlie

If your going to play that type of game, start listing all factors that were involved in each individual year you listed as to why there was carry-over.

Shipping problems, North African crop, other exports offering discounts, farmers not wanting to sell, etc etc.

Charlie, you have to start being a little more objective in what you post. I'm sure you have proven to your supervisors that you have carried the anti- CWB torch long enough.

[bucket]

Charliep

Do you see what the commissions in North Dakota do?

Wouldn't it be nice to have the commissions do that in canada?

[charliep]

foragefarmer

You are right. At this point history. We have moved on.

bucket

I don't see local cash prices posted on the North Dakota Wheat Commission site. Most of the grain companies down there have good websites with prices. USDA also does surveys for the Posted County Prices (would have to find again). Have posted links for the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee in the past.

Alberta Wheat Commission posts weekly prices.

[URL="http://www.albertawheat.com/marketing-resources/grain-prices/"]AWC Prices[/URL]

[bucket]

charliep

You are right, but they comment on trends and in order to do that they have the info to make trend comments.

Whether it be about price, quality and quanitity.

They are a reliable and transparent source. That is my point.

[charliep]

Most of the information you are asking for is available. No one has sorted out and provided a summary page. The three prairie provinces all have weekly statistical summaries.

In Canada, we have left a lot of this for private services to package and distribute. Larry Weber, Mike Jubinville, Greg Kostal, Farm Link, CWB, etc., etc. Is this a service you want your commissions to provide?

Wheat prices are a challenge. Lots of discussion among both government and industry.

The CGC has posted information on this years quality for what it is worth.

[URL="http://cigi.ca/newcrop/"]new crop wheat information[/URL]

[farming101]

I like tracking the weekly CGC report and the grades given to the stocks as they are received at the terminals.

Here is a chart of the first 14 weeks.
#1 CWRS down sharply. #2 still catches most of it and is trending higher as is #3 and CW Feed.
This represents CWRS wheat that is mostly for export and feed which I think can be any class of wheat. The local prairie markets will take a lot of the feed as usual.
<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/CWRSTerminalReceiptsVolume-Quality2014-15_zps8db0893d.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo CWRSTerminalReceiptsVolume-Quality2014-15_zps8db0893d.jpg"/></a>